SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF FORMER PRESIDENTS BUSH

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 BANGKOK 001157

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DEPARTMENT FOR S/CPR (JEUBANK AND CVANDERBROUK),EAP AND
EAP/BCLTV
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OVIP PREL PGOV TH
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF FORMER PRESIDENTS BUSH
AND CLINTON


SUMMARY


1. (U) President Bush and President Clinton, your visit to
Phuket is eagerly anticipated by our Embassy in Bangkok, U.S.
officials working on relief efforts, Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra (Prime Minister TOCK-SIN),and the Royal Thai
Government. In Thailand, we are several weeks past the
crisis stage of responding to the December 26 tsunami. We
have respected the Royal Thai Government's request that the
United States direct the bulk of our monetary assistance
towards Indonesia and other countries more devastated or less
able to cope with mitigating the impact of the tidal wave.
The Thai have made it clear, however, that they welcome U.S.
technical assistance. Thus, we are now working with NGOs and
private companies to provide the Thai Government with that
expertise. You will come to Phuket as we are winding down
the critical U.S. military role in providing assistance to
the tsunami-hit nations in the region by using the Thai naval
base at Utapao as a regional hub. Our military has used
Utapao to coordinate the largest international disaster
relief effort in history. Your meeting with Prime Minister
Thaksin will follow on the heels of visits to Thailand by a
number of senior Americans -- then-Secretary of State Powell,
Deputy Secretary of Defense Wolfowitz and PACOM Commander,
Admiral Fargo, as well as several members of Congress. Your
presence in Thailand will underscore our country's commitment
to remain engaged in Southeast Asia and to support our treaty
obligations here. In your comments with the press, we hope
you have the opportunity to explain to the world that our
ability to provide relief to the region by using Thailand as
a hub was a direct result of decades of joint combined
exercises, training, and cooperation between Thailand and the
United States. At a time when some of our nation's critics
question America's willingness to work with others, you can
point with pride to the outpouring of assistance and relief
that was provided by the U.S. Government, our NGOs, and
private citizens. End Summary.

TSUNAMI AFTERMATH

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2. (U) The massive rescue and recovery operation undertaken
by the United States as a result of the December 26 tsunami
is historic. Mercifully, U.S. casualties in Thailand are
much lighter than those suffered by other countries. After
all victims' remains have been identified, we expect fewer
than 30 American fatalities. Thousands of Thai, Europeans,
and other Asians were killed in the Phuket area, a haven for
vacationers during the holiday season. Total fatalities
continue to rise -- the number currently is around 5,400 and
Thai officials privately say they expect the final death toll
to top 8,000. The Phuket/Khao Lak area was as popular a
vacation spot for many northern Europeans as the Caribbean is
for many Americans. During your visit, we anticipate you
will fly over Khao Lak, the area with the largest loss of
life in Thailand. Thousands of vacationers died in the
scores of hotels that were once spread along the coast there.
Locating, identifying, and processing the remains of victims
of the tragedy are the key focus of U.S. efforts. The Royal
Thai Government has shown the international community that it
is taking careful steps to identify and preserve bodies. We
anticipate you will have an opportunity to lay a wreath at an
international memorial site that has been set up adjacent to
the primary forensics center used by teams from over 30
countries who lost citizens in the tsunami.


3. (U) We expect you will also fly over the Royal Thai
Navy's Phang Nga Naval Base. Phang Nga represents the only
strategic naval facility on Thailand's west coast. Pier
facilities, the water treatment plant, barracks, and
communications capabilities were badly damaged by the
tsunami. Additionally, a patrol boat was sunk and a frigate

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was beached by the tsunami. We have provided a technical
assessment to the Thai suggesting ways to salvage the
frigate. The Thai Navy has indicated, however, that it will
undertake the salvage itself.

USG RELIEF ASSISTANCE


4. (U) In the hours after the tsunami struck, the Embassy
dispatched consular officers to Phuket who began locating and
identifying missing or lost Americans. Several officers who
assisted in this effort were actually posted to other U.S.
Embassies in the region and were vacationing in the
devastated area when the tsunami struck. Meanwhile, Embassy
civilian and military staff linked up to provide immediate
relief while we waited for the massive U.S. military
assistance that arrived later. There were numerous examples
of dedicated Americans working to help those in need. For
instance, U.S. Navy SEALS who were in country on a previously
planned mission quickly linked up with medical experts based
at the Embassy from the Centers for Disease Control to work
together to recover bodies (Prime Minister Thaksin was later
shown on the front page of Thai newspapers thanking our
SEALS). Private companies like Bechtel contacted Embassy
officers to offer earth moving equipment which we were then
able to load onto U.S. C-130's in Bangkok and deliver to
rescue workers in Phuket. Our military officers based at the
Embassy linked up with counterparts at other Embassies in
Thailand to offer medical evacuation flights to their injured
nationals. Embassy family members manned the American
Citizens Services centers at the airports and the Embassy 24
hours a day providing medical kits, clothing and assistance
to return home.


5. (U) We also worked closely with the Thai Government to
secure permission to use Utapao Royal Thai Naval Air Base to
support our relief efforts. Prime Minister Thaksin quickly
granted the use of Utapao as a hub for relief not only for
Thailand, but for the entire region. We were able to use
Utapao so quickly and so effectively (as we have for past
contingencies such as Operation Enduring Freedom and
Operation Iraqi Freedom) due to years of joint/combined
training and exercises between the United States and
Thailand.


6. (U) U.S. disaster relief efforts, led by the U.S.
military, have had an immediate impact on affected areas.
Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) Commander, USMC
LtGen Robert Blackman, was the commanding general of Combined
Support Force 536 (CSF 536),based out of Utapao and now
largely returned to bases in Okinawa. CSF 536 worked closely
with the Embassy to ensure that requests for assistance were
promptly addressed and to assist coordination of relief from
civilian agencies, NGOs and corporate donors. The Royal Thai
Armed Forces granted the U.S. military blanket overflight
clearances for relief operations in the region, including for
aircraft from the USS Abraham Lincoln battle group which
operated off Sumatra. During the height of operations, over
1,800 U.S. personnel operated out of Utapao. We flew over
1,000 sorties out of Utapao while aircraft from the USS
Abraham Lincoln, Essex, and Bonhomme Richard flew thousands
more to distribute tons of medicine, food, dry ice and body
bags. In Thailand, USAF C-130's, working together with Thai
C-130's at the airport in Bangkok were the first U.S. assets
to deliver time-sensitive, visible U.S. support to the
affected area. USN P-3's positioned at Utapao conducted
search and rescue missions in the vicinity of Thailand and in
the region. Teams made up of medical specialists from the
Centers for Disease Control, the Armed Forces Research
Institute of Medical Science and the Joint POW/MIA Accounting
Command in Hawaii were also deployed to Thailand to assist
with victim identification. U.S. Navy SEALS and a
representative from the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance
worked closely with Thai military units to search for the
remains of American and other victims of the disaster.
Embassy Bangkok, augmented by officers and staff from around
the world, maintains a small team in Phuket to assist
Americans, claim American citizen remains, and coordinate
U.S. relief efforts.


7. (U) CSF 536's concept of operations set up Utapao as the
hub for U.S. relief efforts bound for Sri Lanka, Thailand,
and Indonesia. Combined Support Groups (CSG) were
established in each of those three countries to serve as
nodes to interact with the local government, the U.S.
Embassies and the NGO community. CSG-Thailand was based in
Phuket and redeployed on January 22. Since that time,
ongoing recovery efforts in Thailand are being managed by the
Embassy. A key part of those efforts is to focus civil
affairs projects carried out under our military exercise
authority in Thailand to assist Thais rebuilding in the
devastated areas around Phuket.

THE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP AND CURRENT ISSUES


8. (U) Generally, bilateral relations with Thailand are
excellent. Thailand is a security treaty ally and has been
firmly supportive of the International War on Terror.
American businesses have over $20 billion in direct
investment in Thailand. The United States is Thailand's
largest export market and second-largest (after Japan)
foreign investor. Recent decisions to remove Thailand from
the President's list of major narcotics transit or producing
countries and to impose less stringent tariffs on Thai shrimp
exports to the United States than we impose on Thailand's
competitors were favorably received.


9. (U) Thailand sent troops to Afghanistan as part of
Operation Enduring Freedom and dispatched two deployments to
Iraq as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom. In December 2003,
two Thai soldiers were killed by a car bomb while on duty in
Karbala. Thailand's second six-month deployment of 443
medics and engineers to Iraq ended in September 2004.
Notably, despite RTG sensitivity to the prospect,
participation in OIF did not cause a domestic furor in
Thailand as in other countries.


10. (U) Nonetheless, there are points of friction. Human
rights remain a key concern. On October 25, 2004, poorly
trained military and civilian security forces in southern
Thailand loaded 1,300 Thai Muslim protesters into trucks to
be transported to a military base nearly three hours away.
78 of the protesters died, apparently suffocating en route.
The State Department's Human Rights Report also criticized
the approximately 1,300 extrajudicial killings that took
place in early 2003 as part of PM Thaksin's war on drugs. In
addition, Thailand's policy of constructive engagement with
the military junta in Burma is at odds with the U.S.
Government's policy of comprehensive sanctions against
Rangoon.


11. (U) Besides dealing with the tsunami aftermath,
Thaksin's biggest domestic challenge is the unsettled
security situation in the southern part of the country.
Southern Thailand, and in particular the three southernmost
Muslim majority provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat,
has experienced episodic violence since it was incorporated
into the Siamese Kingdom in 1902. However, last year
witnessed a dramatic increase in the level of violence, with
over 500 people killed either by militants or by security
forces. Local Muslim separatist militants have attacked
symbols of Thai and Buddhist authority, and there continue to
be almost daily incidents of violence, notably even after the
tsunami disaster of December 26. Attacks most often involve

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isolated shootings of local officials, although increasingly
sophisticated bombing attacks have become more common.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH THAILAND AND THE
REGION


12. (U) Prior to the tsunami, a number of analysts in the
region concluded that the United States was preoccupied with
other parts of the world and would likely be supplanted by
others, perhaps China, as the most influential nation in
Southeast Asia. Our quick, generous, and unprecedented
response to the disaster has ended much of that speculation.
It has quickly become evident to Thai leaders that no other
country could have responded to the tsunami the way that the
United States has. Our response to this tragedy has given us
new opportunities to improve relations with the region. Many
who questioned our extensive military exercise program with
Thailand and our frequent use of Thai military facilities now
understand clearly that our 50 year-old military alliance
with Thailand is needed as much today as it ever was. I hope
that during your visit here you can assure Thai officials and
the Thai public that the United States is committed to remain
engaged in the region and is determined to work closely with
Thailand and other ASEAN and APEC members.

PRIME MINISTER THAKSIN


13. (U) We expect you will have a dinner with PM Thaksin in
Phuket. In 2001, Thaksin became the first democratically
elected civilian Prime Minister to win an outright majority
in the Thai Parliament. His Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais)
political party dominates domestic politics. After the
February 6 national elections, Thaksin and his party won more
than 375 of the 500 seats in Parliament. This election was
the first time in Thai history that a Parliamentary
government filled out its entire term and was reelected.
Thaksin comes from a prosperous Sino-Thai family in
Thailand's second largest city, Chiangmai, and placed first
in his class at the National Police Academy. He spent
several years studying in the United States -- earning a
master's degree in Criminal Justice from Eastern Kentucky
University and a Doctorate in Criminology from Sam Houston
State University. After a few years with the police, he left
government service to run the family business (Shinawatra
Corporation or Shin Corp),which he turned into Thailand's
largest telecommunications company, making himself a
multi-billionaire in the process. Thaksin characterizes
himself as a "CEO Prime Minister" and is a decisive leader.
Critics accuse him of staffing key government positions with
family members or classmates.

CONCLUSION


14. (U) As in your previous visits to Thailand, you will
observe first hand the true warmth and friendship that exists
between our two countries. If I could suggest three main
themes for your meeting with Prime Minister Thaksin and in
your encounters with the press, they would be:

--Congratulate Thaksin on his election victory;
--Commend the effectiveness of the Thai response to the
tsunami disaster;

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--Highlight the fact that the success of the U.S.-Thai joint
effort to assist other tsunami-affected countries would not
have been possible without 50 years of close
military-to-military cooperation.


15. (U) We very much look forward to your visit. Have a
safe journey.
BOYCE