THAILAND ELECTION UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001039

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND ELECTION UPDATE

REF: BANGKOK 980 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) Summary: Thailand's Election Commission (EC) has
announced that it will officially endorse the general
election results (votes are still being counted in some
constituencies) by February 25. Banyat Bantadtan has
resigned as the leader of the major opposition Democrat Party
(DP),along with the entire DP Executive Board. The DP is
setting about picking up the pieces after its poor electoral
showing. Mahachon Party co-founder and chief financier MGen
Sanan Kachornprasart has also resigned from his party, which
may lead to its dissolution. The opening session of the new
Thai Rak Thai (TRT)-dominated Parliament, which will choose a
new prime minister (certain to be Thaksin Shinawatra) about
10 days later, is tentatively scheduled for March 2-4. PM
Thaksin will select a new cabinet by mid-March and has
announced that he will ignore faction quotas in doing so.
End Summary.

ELECTION COMMISSION (EC) TO OFFICIALLY ENDORSE ELECTION
RESULTS BY FEBRUARY 25


2. (U) Election Commissioner General Charupat, after
meeting with the Secretary General of the Cabinet, Secretary
General of the House of Representatives and the Lord
Chamberlain on February 7, announced that the EC will
officially endorse the election results for all 500 members
of Parliament by February 25. Reportedly, the date was
agreed upon to allow the opening of the Parliament by March 2
or 4. EC Secretary-General Police Major General Ekachai
Warunprapa also stated that the EC could endorse by February
11 the first tranche of the official election results from
races where no election fraud has been reported. The In
controversial contests, all petitions alleging election fraud
must be submitted no later than February 14 to the EC, which
will quickly decide whether they have merit. Where real
fraud (such as missing ballots or suspected ballot box
stuffing) is documented, the EC will hand out red or yellow
cards, leading to "re-elections" either at the level of
corrupt polling stations or even full constituencies on
February 20. Four revotes took place at polling stations in
three provinces on February 9.

DEMOCRAT PARTY EXECUTIVE BOARD DEPARTS; MAHACHON PARTY SENIOR
ADVISOR ALSO GOES


3. (U) DP Leader Banyat Bantadtan officially left the DP
leadership on February 8, along with Secretary-General Pradit
Phatharaprasitder and the entire DP Executive Board. The DP
will meet on February 10 to formally accept the resignations,
name an acting party leader, and begin reorganizing itself.
Popular Deputy Leader Aphisit Vejjajiva is a strong contender
for the top DP position. Names being tipped for the key
secretary general slot include Surat Thani MP Suthep

SIPDIS
Thuaksuban and Songkhla MP Niphon Bunyamani. Mahachon Chief
Advisor MGen Sanan Kachornprasart also officially resigned
his position in the Mahachon Party (MCP),which appears to
have won only a single seat in last weekend's national
election. MCP Party Secretary General Chadet Insawhang also
quit the party. The resignation of Sanan, the party's
principal financial backer, could lead fairly quickly to
dissolution of the Mahachon Party.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEW CABINET - THAKSIN SAYS PLEASING
FACTIONS NOT A FACTOR


4. (U) March 2 or 4 are the tentative dates for the first
session of Parliament. March 8 is slated for election of the
Parliamentary President, March 14 for appointment of the new
Prime Minister, and March 18 for submission of a new Cabinet
line-up to the King for approval. In an important
announcement on February 8, Thaksin said that he will not
follow the traditional practice of assigning cabinet
positions by faction quota. A confident Thaksin told the
press that the party has given him a free hand to assign
Ministers from inside or outside the party. Thaksin
reportedly has told party leaders said that he will no longer
tolerate factional infighting in TRT.


5. (SBU) Comment: Factional infighting has always been a
problem in Thai politics, one generally accepted as a
necessary evil. If PM Thaksin intends to choose his new
cabinet on merit rather than balancing off rival supporters,
that would be regarded as a reform. However, it remains an
open question whether Thaksin's massive win and increased
personal political stature will really allow him to dominate
the political ambitions and rivalries of factions within his
party. Despite Thaksin's pronouncement, the TRT's Wang Bua
Ban, Wang Nam Yen and Suwat factions will be pressing him to
consider their political usefulness to him when he makes his
selections.

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