Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BANGKOK1008
2005-02-08 11:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAILAND: THE SOUTH - IMPRESSIONS FROM FEBRUARY

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER TH 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001008 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV
PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: THE SOUTH - IMPRESSIONS FROM FEBRUARY
1-2 VISIT

REF: A. BANGKOK 869


B. 04 BANGKOK 8377

C. 04 BANGKOK 7171

D. 04 BANGKOK 6647

E. 04 KUALA LUMPUR 4806

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001008

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV
PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: THE SOUTH - IMPRESSIONS FROM FEBRUARY
1-2 VISIT

REF: A. BANGKOK 869


B. 04 BANGKOK 8377

C. 04 BANGKOK 7171

D. 04 BANGKOK 6647

E. 04 KUALA LUMPUR 4806

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) Summary: On February 1-2, Emboffs made a
pre-election visit to Songkhla and Pattani provinces as part
of an ongoing effort to monitor the situation in southern
Thailand. In meetings with local businessmen, bankers,
politicians, and journalists, they repeatedly heard claims
that significant numbers of non-Muslims are abandoning the
far south out of fear. Local business leaders reported that
the worsening security has scared off new investment in the
region and caused labor shortages, despite positive economic
factors that normally should attract investors and workers.
Just prior to the February 6 election, the Thaksin
administration expanded existing security measures and
increased the number of military personnel in the South. The
phenomenon of increasing numbers of non-Muslim Thais leaving
the region as a result of separatist violence, if accurate,
would have serious consequences for the South. End Summary.



2. (SBU) Embassy Political and Economic officers completed
a joint reporting trip to the southern Thai provinces of
Songkhla and Pattani February 1-2 as part of Embassy
Bangkok's continued close observation of the situation in
southern Thailand. They met with local political leaders,
leading businessmen and bankers, and journalists.

TALES OF HEAVY MIGRATION -- CLAIMS THAT 100,000 NON-MUSLIMS
HAVE FLED THE SOUTH


3. (C) As noted reftels B and C, anecdotal evidence is
growing that the immediate goal of the separatist militants
in southern Thailand is to drive non-Muslims out of the
region. This theme was echoed repeatedly and more intensely
across the entire range of interlocutors who met with
Emboffs. A respected journalist said that he and other local
observers estimate that 100,000 Buddhist and ethnic Chinese
Thais have abandoned the three southernmost provinces of
Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat over the past year, moving to

Songkhla province, or further north. He said local security
officials have similar estimates on the number of non-Muslims
who have left the region. Chairat Thavarorit, the Senior
Executive for the southern region for the Bank of Thailand,
and a long-time regional resident, voiced an assertion
repeated by many people during this visit: the separatist
militants aim to destroy the bonds between the Buddhist and
Muslim communities and to raise tensions to a point where
non-Muslims leave; and they have succeeded. (Note: Official
confirmation of these numbers is difficult. According to
census figures from the Department of Religious Affairs taken
in 1999, there are approximately 1.7 million people in the
provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. Of those,
approximately 400,000 are Buddhists. Residents are required
to inform their district office when they move, but this
regulation is only loosely enforced. In any case, the RTG
does not centrally collect such data. End Note.)

THE MIGRATION'S ECONOMIC IMPACT


4. (C) Regardless of the exact number of people who have
fled the region, the business community claims that migration
out is having a noticeable economic impact. Boonlert
Laparojkid, the President of the Songkhla Chamber of
Commerce, and other chamber members insisted that the
militants' push to drive non-Muslims out of the three
southernmost provinces has resulted in business people
leaving for Hat Yai, or locations further north. Some
families moved to the next province north while the
breadwinner continues to work in his/her job in the troubled
area. (Note: These comments echo earlier sentiments
expressed by members of the Narathiwat Chamber of Commerce -
reftel B - End Note.) Boonlert claimed that "all the top
people -- those with money and potential -- have left the
south out of fear." Chamber members noted that the
construction and housing industry is booming in Hat Yai
because of the greatly increased demand for housing from
people fleeing the deep south. Rosarin Sojiphan, the
Director of the Government Savings Bank in Songkhla,
confirmed this trend. Rosarin said that her bank handled a
large increase in requests for housing loans in the Hat Yai
area over the past year. Rosarin identified ethnic Chinese
and Buddhist Thais from the far south as the applicants
searching for homes in Hat Yai. Members of the Pattani
Chamber of Commerce expressed similar opinions. They claimed
to have observed a steady migration of Buddhist and ethnic
Chinese Thais from the south, and said that at a minimum,
these populations were moving out of the villages to larger
urban areas. They noted that rubber and agricultural
production has been impacted because militants often target
agricultural works for shooting or intimidation and arson
attacks.


5. (C) Banker Rosarin Sojiphan noted that skilled workers,
and even civil servants, are moving north because they have
transferable skills. In addition, laborers from Northeast
Thailand (Issan),who normally make up the majority of
construction and factory workers, have stopped coming to the
south out of fear. A journalist contact agreed that laborers
from Issan have disappeared from the deep south, making it
difficult for construction companies to hire adequate labor
for ongoing projects. Fishing industry executives complained
about similar labor problems, saying that many Burmese
laborers have left for safer regions. This apparent labor
exodus is underway despite the fact (per Bank of Thailand
reports) that factory workers in the south are paid higher
daily wages (about Bt200/US$5.1) than counterparts elsewhere
in Thailand (Bt139/US$3.6)


6. (C) Thawon Senniem, a Democratic Party (DP) leader in
Songkhla province, noted that while rubber prices are at
record highs, many Buddhist rubber tappers are afraid to
collect at their groves because of attacks and intimidation.
Chairat Thavarorit, senior Bank of Thailand official, agreed.
He said that violence is also having a direct impact on
overall investment in the region. New investment in
additional or expanded rubber plantations is lacking despite
high prices for raw latex and rubber products. Olarn Uyakul,
the Chairman of the Songkhla chapter of the Federation of
Thai Industries, averred that he and other business people
are prepared to invest additional capital in their southern
operations, but not until the security situation improves.
Banker Chirat concurred that if there is a further escalation
of violence in the region, existing businesses will rapidly
disinvest. He said that the recent closures of hotels
(reftel B) and restaurants, and the absence of Malaysian and
other tourists, are only the first signs pointing to future
business failures. Pattani business contacts complained that
their businesses are being affected by the reluctance of
government product inspectors from outside the region to
conduct their normal safety and health inspections due to
perceived dangers from terrorists.


7. (SBU) Despite all these reported problems, the economy
in the three southern provinces has in fact remained fairly
stable due to the strong demand for rubber and the region's
seafood -- the largest contributors to the southern economy.
A car/motorcycle dealer said his business is good. The
assistant manager of the Pattani "Big C" department store
(reftels B, C) also reported steady profits. Only those whose
businesses are directly tied to tourism (mostly Malaysian)
seem to be suffering decline. The Bank of Thailand regional
economist told Emboffs that the price of the area's rubber
crop has increased 16.2 percent in 2004 and that the economic
effect of this flowed through the entire regional economy.
(Economic statistics are not broken out by province).

ELECTIONS - HEIGHTENED SECURITY, BUT POLITICIANS AFRAID TO
CAMPAIGN


8. (C) Emboffs found the security presence in Pattani more
visible than in previous trips there. Checkpoints that
before had not been manned, or were only nominally manned,
now had fully armed troops inspecting passing vehicles.
According to the Pattani Election Commission (EC),these
measures were not specifically directed at election security
but are part of the government's overall plan to increase the
number of security forces in the region. (Note: The week of
Emboffs' visit the RTG announced plans to create the 15th
Infantry Division for southern Thailand, a force that
reportedly will focus on civil affairs projects. End Note.)
EC members noted, however, that the troops would be on a
heightened state of alert during the election. (Note: There
were no serious instances of violence on election day. End
Note.)


9. (C) The increase in security forces apparently did not
reassure candidates in the region. DP leader Thawon Senniem
told Emboffs that many politicians were afraid to campaign in
much of the deep south, especially outside of the cities. In
the past large rallies where held, but during this year's
campaign, most politicians had opted for small gatherings
only. Thawon noted that even when former DP Prime Minister
Chuan Leekpai went on a southern campaign swing, his
appearances were deliberately subdued due to security
concerns. The Pattani MP candidate of Thaksin's Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party, Atthachan Chaowanit, sounded similar
concerns. He said lack of confidence in security had
directly impacted the TRT's election strategy in the south.
Members of the Pattani EC repeated these observations, noting
that campaigning for the February 6 election was very
different in style from the past because politicians were
afraid to be in public.


10. (C) Comment: Increased emigration of non-Muslim Thais
from the provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat -- and
rising intra-communal tensions -- resulting from the current
violent situation would have serious consequences for the
south, for all the reasons outlined by Embassy interlocutors.
It may be that the emigration trend has not garnered
sufficiently widespread attention inside and outside Thailand
partially because it is happening on a family-by-family
basis. Daily shooting, bombing and arson attacks get the
headlines, and certainly would draw attention away from the
possible reality on the ground: non-Muslim Thais are leaving
Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat.


11. (C) The premise of the Thaksin government's response to
the problems in the South is that economic hardship is the
underlying source of the Muslim discontent (reftel A). None
of Emboff's interlocutors agreed with this assessment, citing
instead lack of justice, the corruption of local officials,
social issues and "troublemakers" as the real causes of the
problem. There is no shortage of jobs, both skilled and
unskilled, in the southern region, and wages are higher than
average, so the poverty argument seems weak. Rather than
economic issues being the source of the violence, the
violence could be the cause of emerging provincial economic
difficulties. (Note: After the failure of Thaksin's TRT
party even to hold its ground in the South in the February 6
election, the Prime Minister indicated that he may rethink
his strategy there. End Note.) End Comment.
BOYCE