FOREIGN MINISTER ZIBARI SAYS IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000007


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2025
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KISL PNAT IZ SY TU
SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ZIBARI SAYS IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS
SHOULD STOP WORRYING AND START HELPING

CLASSIFIED BY DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JAMES F. JEFFREY FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Iraqi Interim Government Foreign Minster
Zibari told Deputy Secretary Armitage on December 31 that
Iraq's Arab neighbors need to worry less about what the
Shi'a will do in Iraq after elections and think about how
to help convince Iraq's Sunni Arabs to stop tearing the
country apart. Zibari was firm that Iraqi and Kurdish
interests require the January elections to go forward
despite the likelihood of low Sunni voter turnout. Zibari
said that more American pressure should be applied to
Syria, which is still giving too much freedom to former
regime elements. Zibari asserted that the Turks exaggerate
the Kurdish issue but he said that Iraq would send a high-
level delegation to Ankara to discuss the PKK. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Foreign Minister Zibari received Deputy Secretary
Armitage, Charge d'Affaires Jeffrey, Assistant Secretary
Burns, D staff aide Ryu and Embassy Pol note-taker on the
evening of December 31 at the Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) headquarters in the International Zone. (The Foreign
Minister was unaccompanied except for his security.)
Zibari was upbeat, back from what he felt was a good trip
to China. He stressed Iraqi appreciation for the American
administration's commitment, praising in particular
American staying power.

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IRAQ'S ARAB NEIGHBORS WORRY ABOUT THE SHI'A
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3. (C) Zibari stressed that Iraq's Arab neighbors are
nervous about Iraq's way forward. They perceive the Shi'a
coming to power and the Sunni Arabs about to be shut out of
government and the constitution-drafting process. Zibari
said that he has explained to the Arab neighbors that Iraq
will remain an Arab League member and respect its
obligations. He has also underlined to them, however, that
the future Iraqi government will be very different from the
Saddam regime marked by pan-Arab rhetoric.


4. (C) Zibari said he underlined in Dubai in early December
that Iraq's Shi'a and Kurds want to work with all Iraqis to
prepare a good constitution. Many of Iraq's neighbors
believe the rhetoric of former regime supporters who say
that they stand for Iraq's national unity. In reality, he
asserted, it is the Sunni Arabs whose rejectionist stance
is tearing Iraq apart.


5. (C) Zibari said that the January 6 meeting in Jordan of
neighboring states would help them understand the Iraqi
elections. He noted, for example, that even Jordanian
Foreign Minister Mulki did not understand how minorities,
such as Iraq's Sunni Arabs, benefit from the Transitional
Administrative Law's (TAL) provision that 2/3 of the voters
in any three of Iraq's governorates could block the new
constitution. (COMMENT: Prior to the meeting, Zibari told
PolCouns that he was not sure either Iranian Foreign
Minister Kharrazi or Syrian Foreign Minister Shara would
attend. He thought King Abdallah's remarks about Iran
might keep the Iranians away. END COMMENT)

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SYRIA: NEEDS MORE PRESSURE
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6. (C) Zibari told the Deputy Secretary that charges of
Syrian complicity in Iraq's security problems from
officials like Iraqi Defense Minister Sha'lan add to Syrian
concerns. Zibari perceived that overall, however, the
Syrians think the U.S. lacks staying power in Iraq, just as
it lacked it in Lebanon 20 years ago. Syria aims to be an
arbiter of Iraqi affairs, he claimed. Thus, it provides
far broader freedom to former regime elements in terms of
money transfers, training and media access than it ever
granted to the anti-Saddam opposition before. He urged
greater U.S. pressure on Damascus. For example, he
suggested the U.S. begin helping the Syrian opposition, a
step he claimed would immediately gain Syrian Government
attention and modify its behavior.


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TURKEY: DO NOT EXAGGERATE KURDISH ISSUES
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7. (C) Zibari said that bilateral relations with Turkey are
"going well," although he acknowledged ongoing Turkish
worries about Kurdish independence. Zibari stressed that
the Turks ultimately understand that independence is not on
the agenda of the Iraqi Kurds' leadership. Occasional
developments do "agitate" the Turks, such as the referendum
on Kurdish independence. Zibari also acknowledged Turkish
concerns about Kirkuk. Keeping the current provincial
council would help allay those Turkish worries as there are
Turkmen sitting on the council, a fact that reassures the
Turks.


8. (C) Zibari asserted that the PKK is largely shutdown and
that the Turkish-Iraq border has been quiet in recent
years. He acknowledged that there have been some incidents
but he said the Turks should not exaggerate their
importance. He added that the Turkish Government has
intelligence operatives and Special Forces in northern Iraq
and understands the reality on the ground. Zibari stated
that the Interim Iraqi Government policy is clear; Iraq
will not harbor any terror group on its soil. Zibari said
an interagency Iraqi team will go to Ankara in January to
discuss the PKK. That said, he said the Turkish Government
must understand that the Iraqi Government's biggest
priority now is not the PKK.

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KURDS MUST SUPPORT THE ELECTIONS
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9. (C) Zibari, who is close to Kurdish KDP leader Masud
Barzani, dismissed the Kurdish threat to boycott the
January elections because of Kurdish dissatisfaction with
the situation in Kirkuk. Kurds should not let themselves
be seen as obstacle, he opined. Moreover, such a boycott
would hurt the credibility of the elections and hurt the
Kurds' friends in the U.S. The suggestion put forward of
keeping a provincial council along the lines of the current
council is not a permanent solution, but it puts the issue
off past elections. Zibari concluded that the January
elections may be messy at times, but they must go forward.
Deputy Secretary agreed, noting that the U.S. and Iraq have
started down a path. Too many Iraqi lives have been
sacrificed to change that path now. The U.S., he strongly
reiterated to Zibari, will not change its stance on
elections.

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INTERNATIONAL MONITORS USEFUL
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10. (C) Zibari opined that the Shi'a United Alliance list
is strong but he doubted that it would gain 60-65 percent
of the vote as many think. Zibari anticipated there would
be a strong Kurdish turnout. Looking at the Sunni Arab
vote, Zibari stated that the Sunnis want to vote; however,
he anticipated that the voter turnout would not be large
because of the intimidation campaign. In addition, none of
the lists had garnered much Sunni Arab enthusiasm. The
resulting Sunni Arab apathy would keep many voters home in
the face of the risk associated with voting. Zibari said
that, while the Sunni Arab vote would be low, the rest of
Iraqis would vote in big numbers. It would be useful to
have international monitors in Iraq to see how open the
process is and how good the turnout will be.


11. (U) Minimize considered.


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