PRELIMINARY ELECTION RESULTS FOR ALL GOVERNORATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005087

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015
TAGS: PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ELECTION RESULTS FOR ALL GOVERNORATES

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: Post analysis on the preliminary and partial
election counts shows the Shia Coalition winning 131 of the
275
Council of Representative Seats, with 53 seats going to the
Kurdish Alliance, and 41 seats to Sunni Arab-dominated
Tawaffuq.
This would put the Shia Coalition in a very strong position
going into negotiations about the formation of the next
governorate. These estimates are preliminary and may change
somewhat after the 300,000 - 400,000 OCV and special voting
ballots are tallied and a full and certified count has been
conducted. The IECI has counted 90 percent of the results
nationwide, and only 50 percent in Al Anbar. Among the
notable
seat absences is the Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress
(List 569),who did not win a governorate seat. With a little
over 20,000 votes nationwide, List 569 is about 20,000 short
in
gaining a compensatory seat. Chalabi's luck may change,
however, with a full counting of votes. End Summary.


2. (C) The IECI announced in its press conference December 20
that it had counted 90 percent of the votes for 17
governates,
and approximately 50 percent of the vote for Anbar. Using
data
posted on the IECI website, Post estimated the following seat
allocation. We strongly caution that not all votes are
tallied
yet, but we expect results to appear roughly as follows:

-- Shia Alliance (List 555) - 131 seats
-- Kurdish Alliance (List 730) - 53 seats
-- Tawaffuq (List 618) - 41 seats
-- National Iraqi List (List 731) - 25 seats
-- National Dialogue (List 667) - 11 seats
-- Kurdistan Islamic Union (List 561) - 5 seats
-- Liberation and Reconciliation (List 516) - 3 seats
-- Al-Rissaliyun (List 631) - 2 seats
-- Mithal al-Alusi (List 620) - 1 seat
-- Al-Rafidain (List 740) - 1 seat
-- Iraqi Turkman Front (List 630) - 1 seat
-- El Ezediah Movement (List 668) - 1 seat

We obtained a copy of the IECI's initial tally of the 230
seats
awarded at the provincial level, and it matched ours exactly.

We have not seen any IECI preliminary tally of compensatory
seats; they may well wait until the OCV votes are tallied.


3. (C) This count puts the Shia Alliance in a very strong
position. To reach a two-thirds voting majority to name the
presidency council, the Shia Coalition List 555 would only
need
53 more votes - the exact number projected for the Kurdish
Alliance.


4. (C) A surprising feature of these preliminary results is
that
none of the compensatory seats likely will be awarded in a
compensatory fashion. The higher voter turnout - over 10.5
million - has raised the threshold for getting a compensatory
seat on a national tally very high. The smaller,
underrepresented parties so far do not have enough votes
nationwide to reach that threshold. Instead, those smaller
parties had a better chance winning a governorate seat - Al
Rafidain (List 740) for example is projected to win 1
governorate seat with less than 10,000 votes, instead of the
40,000 votes nationwide needed for a compensatory seat. If
the
data holds, we estimate the Shia Alliance will win 21
compensatory seats and the Kurdish Alliance will win 10.
KHALILZAD