SHIA LEADERS REACT TO ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005070

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2015
TAGS: KDEM PHUM PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: SHIA LEADERS REACT TO ELECTIONS


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Sayed Kareem al Bukhati from List 652 Sun
of Iraq and Jawad al Bolani of Ahmed Chalabi's List 569
Iraqi National Congress told us December 18 that the
elections were conducted well in most places. Bukhati felt
there was some electoral fraud, but his party has yet to
file any complaints with the IECI. His party will do well
in Sadr City and southern Iraq, he asserted, and should get
five seats in the next parliament. Bolani was hopeful of
scoring over a dozen seats in the next assembly. He
expressed concern that the Shia clerical establishment
(Marjaiya) name was invoked to sway voters, despite Grand
Ayatollah SISTANI's refusal to endorse any list explicitly.
Bolani said his party has filed a complaint with the IECI,
alleging fraud in Kirkuk and elsewhere. It appears that
neither of these election slates won a seat among the 230
awarded at the provincial level, based on the preliminary
figures announced December 19-20. It is possible that
their upbeat assessments now will darken and parties like
theirs will complain more vociferously about fraud. END
SUMMARY.

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Bolani the Confident
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2. (C) Jawad al Bolani told Pol/FSN he was pleased the
elections went as smoothly and as peacefully as they did.
He said List 569 was popular in such places in the Shia
heartland as Basrah, Hillah, and Kut. He also feels they
received many votes in Ramadi and Baghdad. Bolani said he
expects his party to get between 17 and 25 seats in the
next parliament. (Comment: As best we can tell, List 659
received no seats among the 230 seats awarded at the
provincial level. End Comment.)


3. (C) Bolani said that his party filed complaints with the
IECI, alleging fraud in Kirkuk and elsewhere. He said most
of the fraud occurred in places that have mixed Shia-Sunni
Arab populations, such as At Tamim and Salah ad Din
provinces. He also said that he does not think the IECI
will be able to deal with all of the problems reported to
it, but he hopes the IECI will learn from these elections
so the next ones will be cleaner.


4. (C) Bolani also expressed concerns that "some people"
(presumably UIC List 555) implied throughout the campaign
that the Marjaiya endorsed them, despite the fact that
Grand Ayatollah SISTANI never explicitly endorsed any
electoral list.

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Bukhati the Hopeful
--------------


5. (C) Bukhati told Pol/FSN he was pleased that the
elections were peaceful and that Iraqis of all sects and
ethnicities took part in large numbers. He opined that
List 652 received most of its votes from the Sadr City and
southern Iraq. The Sun of Iraq list had several tribal
sheikhs on its candidate list, so much of the party's
support came from other tribal sheikhs, he asserted.
Bukhati predicted that Sun of Iraq will get five seats in
the next parliament, and will join a coalition with other
parties. (Comment: it appears that List 652 did not win
any seats among the 230 awarded at the provincial level,
based on the preliminary results announced December 19-20.
End Comment.)


7. (C) Bukhati did say that there was much fraud in Baghdad
and other provinces. List 652 has not yet filed any
complaints with the IECI, but may later.


8. (C) COMMENT: Bukhati is a long-time Embassy contact who
at times has aligned himself with the Sadr Bureau in Sadr
City. Despite allegations of fraud from Bolani and
Bukhati, their were (surprisingly perhaps) positive about
the election process. These conversations occurred before
the announcement of preliminary results, and their mood may
have darkened.
KHALILZAD