Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BAGHDAD5052
2005-12-19 17:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

POST-ELECTION UPDATE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS,

Tags:  PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005052 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015
TAGS: PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION UPDATE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS,
COMPLAINTS, AND DEBA'ATHFICATION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005052

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015
TAGS: PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: POST-ELECTION UPDATE: PRELIMINARY RESULTS,
COMPLAINTS, AND DEBA'ATHFICATION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (SBU) Summary. The IECI has released preliminary
information indicating that the December 15 voter
turnout ranged from 65-70 percent, an increase over
both the January elections and October referendum.
Tallying for the elections is well underway, and in
the case of Baghdad, almost complete. The IECI
announced partial results for over 80 percent of the
vote in Baghdad, which, with 59 seats, represents 20
percent of the Council of Representatives (see
septel). Despite its announcement of partial results,
the IECI does not expect the final certification to be
completed until January, when all critical or "red"
complaints can be investigated. The number of
complaints submitted to date has reached record
proportions, with over 700 complaints received to date
and more expected in the days ahead. Twenty of the
total complaints have been designated as "red"
complaints that could affect parts of the results.
Meanwhile, the Deba'athification Commission's appeal
to the Transitional Electoral Panel (TEP) on the
IECI's decision not to disqualify any candidates it
identified may also affect the outcome of the
election. End Summary.

-------------- -
TALLY CENTER OPEN: IECI WARNS OF FALSE REPORTS
-------------- -


2. (SBU) On December 17, the IECI Tally Center began
operations by collating Baghdad Counting and
Reconciliation forms (forms 121 and 122). These
forms, submitted by each of the 32,000 polling
stations, have arrived piecemeal to Baghdad from the
18 governorates. The Tally Center uses these forms to
not only count the totals of the votes, but also to
check the quality control of results. Count Forms 121
(tabulation of actual voting results) and
Reconciliation Forms (inventory of materials,
including unused ballots and other sensitive items)
are used in a system of checks and balances that also
focuses on data entry accuracy and detecting "ghost"
stations, or stations set up without IECI approval.


3. (C) At the IECI's December 17 Press Conference,
Commissioner Hindawi cautioned against erroneous

results information from the press or political
parties. He stated that the IECI is the only true
source for this data, and that any other data would be
wrong. He added that the IECI would announce
preliminary figures as soon as they are available from
the Tally Center. On December 19 the IECI announced
partial results for Baghdad; the capital's vote is
especially important since its 59 seats represent 20
percent of the Council of Representatives. An IECI
official told Poloff December 18 that the remaining
portion of results was being rechecked by an audit
process prompted by complaints.

--------------
COMPLAINTS AND ANTI-FRAUD MEASURES
--------------


4. (C) The IECI reports that it has received
approximately 700 complaints (including 20 "red"
complaints) and expects up to 700 more as the tallying
and processing of complaint forms continues. This
number of complaints is a large increase over the 150
received during the referendum and more than the 450
(including 6 "red" complaints) received during
January's election. Harith Hassan, Deputy Chief
Electoral Officer, told Poloff December 18 that the
majority of those complaints (170) are from Baghdad,
including the "red" complaints. The IECI does not
expect the final certification to be completed until
January, when all of the "red" complaints can be
investigated.


5. (SBU) In its attempt to address fraud, the IECI is
preparing to conduct post-election audits in at least
five cities, including Mosul, Basrah, Kirkuk, Hillah,
and Erbil. These locations were based on past
election experiences and the likelihood that voting
irregularities may occur in these areas. The audit
will include checking IECI material for signs of
tampering, cross-checking the numbers reported on
counting forms, and inspecting a sampling of actual
ballots cast to detect any signs of fraudulent voting.
The team will consist of IECI and IFES staff, and be
accompanied by members of the MNF-I Election Cell.

--------------
DEBA'ATHIFICATION RE-EMERGES
--------------


6. (C) On December 16, UN/IECI Legal Advisor Jose
Aranaz reported to Poloffs that the DeBa'athification
Commission had appealed the IECI's decision to not
disqualify candidates that the Commission had listed
(reftel). The appeal is currently with the
Transitional Electoral Panel (TEP),a three-member
panel comprised of judges appointed by the Higher
Juridical Council. Results of the appeal should be
forthcoming in the next two weeks, if not sooner. In
making its determination, CPA Order 92 only permits
the TEP to overturn the IECI decision if the TEP finds
that it was "arbitrary, capricious, in excess of
jurisdiction, or rendered in bad faith."

--------------
COMMENTS
--------------


7. (C) Having learned from the October referendum, the
IECI is attempting to manage speculation on the
election outcome by preemptively announcing
preliminary results. It is probably the wisest move.
This IECI strategy may feed the wolves temporarily,
but may also lead to more speculation if it fails to
announce results for a particular section of the
country. Announcing preliminary results, moreover,
may create expectations both that final results will
be issued soon thereafter and that those final results
will mirror the preliminary results. The IECI will
need time to investigate "red" complaints before it
can announce results affected by those complaints.


8. (C) If nothing else, the amount of complaints
submitted reflects a growing awareness of the IECI's
complaint process and more involved election
participation by individuals and political parties
alike. It is also possible that this increased number
of complaints reflects an increase in fraudulent
activities.


9. (C) If the TEP rules in the Deba'athification
Commission's favor, the IECI could be forced to
disqualify "winning" candidates. Such a controversial
decision would strengthen the Deba'athification
Commission's dubious role in "cleansing" the
government from Ba'athists without the necessity of
presenting evidence to substantiate its allegations.
KHALILZAD