FADHILA LOOKS TO LIFE AFTER ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005021

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015
TAGS: KDEM KISL PGOV PINR PINS IZ
SUBJECT: FADHILA LOOKS TO LIFE AFTER ELECTIONS


Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a December 11 phone interview, Mohammed
Ismael, a high ranking member of Fadhila (an anti-Moqtada,
Sadrist party),told POL/FSN that his party will most
likely support Adel Abdul Mehdi for Prime Minister, Bayan
Jabr for Minister of Interior, and party leader Nadeem
Jabiri for Vice President. Final decisions on leadership
positions in the government, however, will be made after
the results of the December 15 election are announced.
Ismael said he expects Fadhila to garner many votes in
southern Iraq. He also said that, despite what some say,
the Fadhila Party has no militia. END SUMMARY.

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Views On Leadership For Iraq
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2. (C) Ismael said Fadhila may nominate party official
Nadeem Al-Jabiri to be Vice President. Ismael also said
that Fadhila will support Adel Abdul Mehdi's bid to become
Prime Minister. They prefer him over current Prime
Minister Ja'fari. The Fadhila Party also supports Bayan
Jabr as Minister of Interior. Fadhila, however, also has
its eye on the security ministries. They have prepared
some professional police officers to be candidates for the
Defense and Interior Ministries. Fadhila fears Ba'athists
may rejoin the ISF.


3. (C) Fadhila has not made a final decision about which
ministries they would like to control. This decision will
be made after election results are made public. Fadhila
Party leadership, however, has considered the issue and has
prepared lists of three nominees to head each ministry.
Ismael did say that Fadhila would like to retain control of
the Ministry of Oil, but would replace the minister with a
yet-unnamed party member.

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Fadhila Has No Militia
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4. (C) Mohammed Ismael said the Fadhila Party does not have
a militia, but rather only guards for party officials. One
year ago the idea of forming a militia was discussed with
Sheikh Mohammed al Yaqoubi, but Sheikh Yaqoubi opposed
this, saying, "Having a militia will cause more problems
that it would be worth."?

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The Fadhila Heartland
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5. (C) Ismael said that the Fadhila Party is particularly
strong in southern Iraq, especially in the provinces of
Maysan, Dhi Qar (where the Provincial Council Chair is a
Fadhila Party member),and Basrah (where the Provincial
Governor is a Fadhila Party member). Fadhila has two kinds
of supporters there: party members who like Fadhila's
political platform and other members of the party who
follow Sheikh Mohammed al Yaqoubi.


6. (C) COMMENT: Ismael's statements point to Fadhila's
continued engagement in the UIC 555 coalition after
previously declaring themselves to be "unwilling partners"
and attempting to pull out of the alliance prior to the
December 15 elections. It remains to be seen how many
ministries and leadership positions UIC 555 will control
after the elections. Fadhila could well have a significant
voice in the next Iraqi government. END COMMENT.
KHALILZAD