FALLUJANS MOBILIZED FOR ELECTION AMID INCREASED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004971

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM EFIN KDEM IZ XL
SUBJECT: FALLUJANS MOBILIZED FOR ELECTION AMID INCREASED
TENSION IN CITY

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD, REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Fallujans stand mobilized for the December
15 election. Momentum flowing from the October 15
referendum - when an estimated 200,000 residents in the city
and surrounding communities voted - should lead to repeat
high turnout. Campaign posters and fliers dot the city;
Ahmed Chalabi-funded mobile phone text messages also fill
the airwaves. Fallujah leaders, most prominently imams,
continue to urge citizens to participate in the election.
The recent murder of Sheikh Hamza Abbas Al-Issawi,
Fallujah's mufti, appears to have galvanized but also
unnerved residents. Overt intimidation directed toward
clerics has led to more tension in the city. Fallujah
leaders believe the ITG will renege on its preliminary
commitment to pay USD 75 million in compensation for damaged
homes. Non-payment might elicit demonstrations in the city
and risk reversing hard-won momentum at a crucial time.
Emboffs have met with ITG Finance Minister Allawi to urge
movement on more compensation funds for Fallujah. Allawi
has indicated he is willing to provide more funds but not
USD 75 million chunk all at once. END SUMMARY.

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CITY MOBILIZED TO VOTE;
HIGH TURNOUT EXPECTED
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2. (C) Fallujah leaders anticipate high turnout election
day. Sheikh Kamal Shakir Al-Nazal, city council chairman,
told Poloff and Marines December 6, 2005, that "everyone is
ready; 100 percent will participate." (Note: turnout in
the city for the October referendum was estimated to be 90
percent. End Note). The successful security arrangement for
the referendum - referred to in IECI circles as the
"Fallujah model" - will be repeated. Iraqi police will
serve as the inner cordon, with Marines and Iraqi Army in
the outer rings. Approximately the same number of polling
sites - 62 for the greater Fallujah area - will be manned by
IECI employees. COMMENT: Sheikh Kamal and Mayor Dhari
expressed concern about Iraqi Islamic Party-affiliated
workers, who dominated the IECI employee rosters for the
October 15 vote. They raised this matter with IECI
Commissioner Izadin at a November 29 IECI outreach session
in Fallujah. END COMMENT.

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CAMPAIGN SEASON: POSTERS,
FLIERS AND TEXT MESSAGES
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3. (C) Fallujah streets contain numerous election-related
posters. Fallujah Poloff and Marines have observed many
while convoying throughout the city. The most prominent
include campaign material for Slate 667 (Iraq Front for
National Dialogue),led by Salih Mutlak, and Slate 618
(Iraqi Concord Front),a list that comprises the IIP, Iraqi
National Dialogue Council and the Iraqi National Gathering.
Local candidates - to include the city mayor, Sheikh Dhari,
and city council chairman, Sheikh Kamal - have complained
about the lack of funds to get their message out.


4. (C) The local city paper, Al Bishara, has run full-page
political ads. One of its reporters told Fallujah Poloff
that fliers supporting Ayad Allawi were present in the
city. Another Fallujah-based candidate, Engineer Farouk Abd
Mohammed Al-Issawi, told Poloff and Marine FAO that he has
been in effect stumping in nearby communities. When asked
about possible intimidation, Farouk replied that he felt
safe because of his tribal affiliation, one of the area's
largest. (Note: Engineer Farouk heads the Iraqi National
Political Council - list number 833. End Note.)


5. (C) Notably, mobile phone numbers in Fallujah also have
received text messages on behalf of Ahmed Chalabi. They
read: "If you are with us, nothing is difficult - Dr. Ahmed
Chalabi, List 569."

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MUFTI'S MURDER GALVANIZES;
WHILE MORE IMAMS TARGETED
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6. (C) The November 30, 2005, murder of Fallujah's revered
mufti, Sheikh Hamza, shook the city. Resident widely
perceived the religious leader to be "above politics" - and
thereby virtually untouchable. One prominent imam and
Fallujah City Council member, Sheikh Abdul Sittar, told
Poloff and Marine FAO that the mufti's murder "has woken us
all from a deep sleep." He added that city imams would not
tell residents how to vote, a position that the late mufti
had made explicit - "we cannot pick favorites."


7. (C) Other clerics reportedly have been targeted by
insurgents, to include Sheikh Kamal, who claims he has
received death threats by phone. He sought a weapons permit
so his teenage son could stand guard at his home during
nighttime. Mayor Dhari and Sheikh Kamal have requested that
Marines allow selected imams to carry sidearms. Marines are
currently reviewing this proposal in coordination with city
leaders.

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COMPENSATION: ITG WON'T PAY;
DEMONSTRATTIONS MIGHT ENSUE
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8. (C) Fallujans regularly criticize the ITG's failure to
pay any compensation for homes damaged during Operation Al
Fajr. (NOTE: The IIG's PM Allawi provided approximately
USD 100 million for initial "down payments" amounting to 40
percent of estimated costs; these funds have since been
depleted. END NOTE.) Follow-on ITG leaders initially
committed to providing USD 75 million in funds for Fallujah,
but the money has yet to be released. Sheikh Kamal told
Fallujah Poloff and Marine FAO December 8 that Fallujans
widely believed the funds would not be paid - and that
demonstrations might result. Kamal frankly added that past
demonstrations had led to violence. Poloff agreed, and
urged that he and other city leaders work to keep the people
off the streets. Kamal said he would try.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Our engagement and rebuilding efforts in Fallujah
have entered a crucial phase. High turnout in the December
15 election will be a testament to the Qncerted effort of
city leaders to mobilize the populace, combined with
effective security led by Iraqis and supported by Marines.
They will have delivered a significant number of votes twice
in two months and will subsequently seek more satisfaction,
and accountability, from Baghdad. Whether Mayor Dhari and
Sheikh Kamal, Fallujah's favored sons, will secure enough
votes to gain seats in the next government remains to be
seen. Both seem convinced lack of funds dramatically
reduces their odds. They have not indicated for which list
they are candidates.


10. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Increased intimidation against
city imams - the most important group in the city, alongside
U.S. Marines - will need to be monitored closely. So far,
imams have helped blunt insurgent messages, particularly by
encouraging political participation. The now-deceased
mufti, Sheikh Hamza, had implicitly blessed a cooperative
tone with the coalition since Operation Al Fajr. Should the
ITG fail to deliver any compensation funds, the stage might
be set for even more volatility in city streets - despite
Fallujah's steady political gains. Emboffs have met with
ITG Finance Minister Allawi to urge forward movement on more
compensation funds for Fallujah. Allawi has indicated he is
willing to provide more funds but not a USD 75 million chunk
all at once.

KHALILZAD