SADRISTS READY TO TAKE IRAQ TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004956

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2015
TAGS: KDEM KISL PGOV PINR PINS IZ
SUBJECT: SADRISTS READY TO TAKE IRAQ TO A WHOLE NEW LEVEL


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT S. FORD FOR
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a December 11 meeting, Sadrist TNA
member Nasser al Sadi of Sadr City told PolOff the Sadrists
favor forming a government that includes the Sunni Arabs
and Kurds. He said the Sadrists do not want UIA 555 to
govern alone, and the Sadrists do not wish to dominate any
particular ministry. He assured PolOff that the Sadrists
have eschewed violence and will resist the occupation of
Iraq solely by political means. Nasser continued, saying
that the Sadrists are especially strong in southern Iraq.
Muqtada al Sadr may even run for political office once
Coalition Forces (CF) leave Iraq, according to Nasser. END
SUMMARY.

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A More Perfect Union
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2. (C) Nasser told PolOff that the main goal of the
Sadrists was to form an inclusive government after the
December 15 elections. He said the Sadrists do not want
UIA 555 to control the government alone. In order for a
government to be successful, it must include Kurds and
Sunni Arabs. No group should oppress another group. All
Iraqis must be equal under the law.


3. (C) Nasser went on to say that the Sadrists do not have
ambitions to dominate any particular ministries in the next
government. He said the jobs at the ministries should go
to the most qualified Iraqis, regardless of political
affiliation. Nasser does think, however, that the Sadrists
have qualified people to serve as Minister of Housing and
Public Works, Minister of Trade, and Minister of Education.
Sadrists do not officially desire to take over the Ministry
of Defense or Ministry of Interior, but, if they did, Iraq
would be safer, he promised. While promising that militias
would not be used to target certain groups, Nasser pledged
that with a security ministry the Sadrists would "take Iraq
to a whole new level of security." (Comment: Given the
experience in places like Najaf with Sadrist 'sharia'
courts and the Mahdi militia, the Sadrists very likely
would indeed take Iraq to a new level of quote security
unquote. End Comment.)

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Giving Peace a Chance
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4. (C) According to Nasser, fighting MNF-I twice has taught
the Sadrists that violence is not the way to achieve their
goals. Jaysh al Mahdi (JAM) will not fight MNF-I again.
Muqtada al Sadr has decided to resist the occupation of
Iraq solely by political means.

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Playing To Their Base, and Looking To the Future
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5. (C) Nasser said the Sadrists are campaigning mainly in
southern Iraqi cities such as Maysan, Nasiriyah, Basrah,
and Kut. These areas in the Shia heartland are where the
Sadrists are strongest. The Sadrist candidates, Nasser
claimed, do not have a lot of money, and so have had to
rely on imams to urge people to vote for them. While not
openly endorsing candidates himself, Nasser said Muqtada al
Sadr wants his followers to vote for "those who were
oppressed by the former regime." Nasser also added that it
is possible, once CF leaves Iraq that Muqtada will run for
public office.


6. (C) COMMENT: Nasser is one of the few Sadrists with
whom we can speak; many refuse to have anything to do with
Embassy personnel. Those that do are careful to make the
conversations very short, and they refuse to talk to
Embassy female poloffs. By contrast, Nasser seems sincere
in his moderate opinions; he directs a Sadrist cultural NGO
on top of his TNA duties. He also definitely knows what we
want to hear. While he is not in the inner circle around
Muqtada, he is young and could be on the political scene
for a long time. His comments point to the Sadrists'
desire to be seen as serious politicians. The enthusiasm
with which Nasser spoke about possibly taking over a
security ministry, however, makes his claims sound somewhat
disingenuous. Many here have doubts that Muqtada and all
his aides have completely bought in to the democratic
process. We are watching for indications about whether or
not he is going through the democratic motions only while
it is convenient for him and his movement to do so. END
COMMENT.
KHALILZAD