VP GHAZI AL-YAWAR PREDICTS ALLAWI WILL BE PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004928

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV PNAT PREL PTER PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: VP GHAZI AL-YAWAR PREDICTS ALLAWI WILL BE PM

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Vice President Shaykh Ghazi al-Yawar told Ambassador
on December 8 that only one of two groups will dominate after
the December 15 election: the Allawi group (in which Shaykh
Ghazi is running) or the "pro-Iranian group" (the Shia
Alliance). Many Shia, Ghazi explained, particularly the
secular and tribal groups, fear Iranian influence and will
vote for the Allawi coalition. Ghazi said he hopes Allawi's
coalition will win 55 seats. If the Shia Alliance wins fewer
than 100 seats, he added, there is a good chance for a
brokered coalition government formed by Ayad Allawi. Other
groups -- including Chalabi's moderate Shia coalition and the
Sunni Arab Tawafoq coalition -- will work with Allawi, as
will the Kurds, Ghazi elaborated. The chances for a unity
government are also good, Ghazi predicted, since VP Abd'
al-Mahdi is pragmatic and will join in. Shaykh Ghazi said he
might seek the post of National Assembly Speaker rather than
an executive post in the new government.


2. (C) Shaykh Ghazi complained about some election hiccups
including the De-Ba'athification Commission's attempt to
disqualify nearly 200 candidates. Ghazi called this a purely
political move, engineered by Ahmad Chalabi, to discredit the
Allawi coalition by painting their Sunni partners as
Ba'athists. Among those charged by the Commission is Shaykh
Adnan al-Janabi, who Ghazi said was a former communist and
never a member of the Ba'ath Party. Ghazi said he is not
worried, however, because the IECI referred the Commission's
list of "Ba'ath" candidates to the Presidency Council, which
will take no action before the election.


3. (C) According to Shaykh Ghazi, the current Coalition
military campaigns in Anbar and around Baghdad are unwise and
will hurt Sunni outreach efforts because they cause
bitterness that takes weeks to subside. Ghazi said that
although he understands the Coalition does not want to give
the bad guys a break, the operations are causing unnecessary
resentment close to the election. Using jets and attack
helicopters against cities and villages is also unacceptable,
he said. If such attacks are to be used at all, he asserted,
they should be highly-targeted lightning strikes -- like
operations conducted by the Israelis.

4 (C) The Allawi coalition is conducting an aggressive
campaign in Ninawa, where voter participation is expected to
be high. Ghazi, who plans to spend a few days campaigning in
Ninawa, said that 80% will for the Allawi alliance --
everyone except the Kurds. Support is particularly high in
the Sunni tribal areas of Ninawa.
KHALILZAD