CHALABI ALLY: THERE IS NO RESISTANCE, ONLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004842

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/04/15
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SA
SUBJECT: CHALABI ALLY: THERE IS NO RESISTANCE, ONLY
TERRORISM

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL J. ADLER, FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) In a December 3 meeting with Poloffs, INC candidate
Mariam al-Rais argued in favor of her party's platform and
party leader Ahmed Chalabi's qualifications to lead the next
government. Al-Rais faulted Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia
for contributing to Iraq's instability. In a clear allusion
to the Arab League Cairo Prepcon statement she said that
there is no "resistance" in Iraq, only terrorism. END SUMMARY


2. (U) Poloffs met December 3 with TNA member Mariam al-Rais,
who is currently running on Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National
Congress (INC) list in the upcoming election. Al-Rais began
her presentation with a general assertion of support for
de-Ba'athification and anti-corruption efforts. With that in
mind, she asked rhetorically why the TNA had not lifted the
immunity of Alawi-ally and former Minister of Defense Hazim
al-Shalan (NOTE: Members of the TNA raised this issue during
the previous week's session, but no action was taken.)
Al-Rais then presented portions of the INC's campaign
platform: combating poverty in Iraq through the direct
allocation of a percentage of oil revenues to Iraqi citizens;
distributing state land for housing to Iraqi citizens; and
improving the education system, particularly universities.


3. (C) The INC List has candidates in all 15 governorates
outside of Kurdistan. Al-Rais said the list has some
national figures as well as provincial notables. She also
said that Chalabi maintains close ties to politicians on
other lists, including Sadrists and Shaykh Abdel Karem
al-Mohamedawi (Abu Hatem). On the subject of campaign
intimidation, she did not point to any campaign problems or
irregularities regarding the INC. When PolOff raised recent
media reports of campaign intimidation with other parties,
she acknowledged that she had heard that others had presented
complaints to the IECI, and wondered why the IECI had not
done anything in response. (NOTE: Embassy has pressed the
IECI to issue a statement condemning campaign intimidation;
on December 4, International Commissioner Jenness told
Poloffs the Commission has plans to do so.)


4. (C) While al-Rais refused to speculate on how the INC will
do in the elections, she did say there are only four
personalities who could be the next Prime Minister: former PM
Allawi, current PM Jafari, VP Abd' al-Mehdi, and DPM Chalabi.
She argued forcefully that of the group, Ahmed Chalabi would
be the most appropriate candidate.


5. (C) Al-Rais said "there is no resistance in Iraq, just
terrorism" -- a clear reference to the Arab League Cairo
Prepcon's final statement. She pointed to Iraq's Arab
neighbors as sources of the country's instability -- in
particular to Jordan and Syria (i.e., for giving sanctuary to
terrorists and Ba'athists) as well as Saudi Arabia (as the
source of Wahabism).

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Al-Rais was emphatic that Ahmed Chalabi is the right
man to lead Iraq. She argued that twenty years of war had
psychologically damaged generations of Iraqis, and that only
those who had been in exile -- like Chalabi -- are
appropriate leaders at this juncture. Her discussion of
threats from neighboring countries was notable for the
absence of a reference to Iran. As for Al-Rais, herself,
unless the INC list does unexpectedly well in the elections,
it is unlikely that she will be elected to the Council of
Representatives. She is the ninth candidate on the INC's
Baghdad list.
SATTERFIELD