NATIONAL DIALOGUE COUNCIL MEMBER ON ELECTIONS,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004806

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SA
SUBJECT: NATIONAL DIALOGUE COUNCIL MEMBER ON ELECTIONS,
SUNNI OUTREACH, AND BA'ATH PARTY

Classified By: AMBASSADOR KHALILZAD FOR REASONS 1.4
(B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. National Dialogue Council member
Mahmoud Mashadani told the Ambassador November 29 that
Iraqi Security Forces are preventing campaigning and
that terrorists are targeting Tawafoq (consensus)
leaders. He called for a national unity government
after the election. He also said his coalition is
working to get armed Sunni groups and Ba'athists to
participate in the political process. He reported on
a recent visit of Tawafoq representatives to Tehran
where they met with Rafsanjani. END SUMMARY.

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PRE-ELECTION ASSESSMENT: ACCEPTABLE, BUT SUFFERING
FROM SECURITY FORCES, TERRORISTS, AND LACK OF FUNDING
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2. (C) The Ambassador met November 29 with Mahmoud
Mashadani of the National Dialogue Council (one of
three parties in the Tawafoq Coalition, the leading
Sunni bloc). Although he termed the current pre-
election situation "acceptable," Mashadani said
Tawafoq members are suffering from the Iraqi Security
Forces that are preventing campaigning and from groups
(al-Qaida and al-Zarqawi) that are trying to
assassinate them. Mashadani asked that the USG tell
the GoI to order officers to stop tearing down
campaign posters and end raids until after the
election.


3. (C) Mashadani said he would be traveling to Kuwait
and Saudi Arabia to try to secure funding for Tawafoq,
but that time is running short.

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POST-ELECTION ASSESSMENT: NEED UNITY GOVERNMENT AND
STRONG MINISTRY OF HUMAN RIGHTS
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4. (C) Mashadani speculated that the Shia Alliance
will receive 70 seats, the Kurdish Alliance 50-55
seats, Tawafoq 40-50 seats, and the Iraqi National
List 15-30 seats. He said Tawafoq will be the
legitimate leader of the Sunni Community in the
Council of Representatives.


5. (C) Mashadani praised the investigation of the
Bunker detention facility and related abuses. The
Ambassador assured him that the Embassy will continue
to pursue this matter and that investigations will
happen at other facilities. Mashadani agreed with the
assessment that it is crucial that the next
government's Minister of Interior not be linked to
militia groups. Mashadani said the Ministry of Human
Rights (MoHR) should have executive powers and courts
because if human rights are respected then the
situation will improve.


6. (C) Mashadani said that "for us to succeed and
finish the transitional period," Iraq will need a
national unity government. If any one group is
excluded, there will be problems. Ministries should
be allotted to the electoral blocs according to the
percentage received in the election. He said MoHR
should go to Tawafoq and MOD to the Kurds (for two
years),and expressed his personal preference for Adel
Abd' al-Mahdi as Prime Minister.

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SECURITY ESSENTIAL
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7. (S) Mashadani told the Ambassador that security
will remain a problem if proper attention is not paid
to it. He said Tawafoq has played an honest mediator
role to convince most armed Sunni groups to disarm as
the political process continues. The Ambassador
encouraged Tawafoq to continue to play this role and
said the US would do what it could to support the
effort.


8. (S) Mashadani told the Ambassador that he and other
Tawafoq representatives had recently returned from
Jordan and Iran, where they met with Akbar Hashemi
Rafsanjani. He said the Tawafoq members told
Rafsanjani they would do what they could to help calm
the Iraqi insurgency, and they urged Rafsanjani to
exhort Badr Corps to ratchet down its activities as
well. They warned the Iranians that there will be a
civil war if the Sunnis are prevented from
participating in the elections. Rafsanjani reportedly
responded by referring to the January elections and
saying that ?we did not prevent you, the Americans
did.?

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FUTURE OF BA?ATH PARTY
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9. (C) Mashadani produced a statement from the Ba'ath
Party that he said had some positive aspects (e.g.,
belief in democracy) and some negative ones (e.g.,
allegations that upcoming election results are already
pre-cooked and that civil war will result from the
increased arming of Shia groups). He said the basic
Ba'athist demands have not changed: release all
detainees, withdraw Coalition forces, and allow former
soldiers back into the armed forces.

10. (C) In response to a question about the future of
the now outlawed Ba'ath Party, Mashadani acknowledged
that the leadership has made many mistakes. He added
that the Tawafoq members are trying to contain the
Ba'athists and engage them in the political process.
This calls for them to move away from old Ba?athist
ideas to new national and cultural ideas and to keep
the party from being a destructive element. Mashadani
emphasized that Tawafoq is trying to deal with the
Ba?athists but is not "with" them.
KHALILZAD