OFFICIAL RESULT SHOWS THE CONSTITUTION PASSES -

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004390

SIPDIS

CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV PNAT IZ
SUBJECT: OFFICIAL RESULT SHOWS THE CONSTITUTION PASSES -
MIXED SUNNI ARAB REACTIONS

REF: BAGHDAD 4381

Classified By: PolCouns Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (U) SUMMARY: The Independent Electoral Commission of
Iraq (IECI) announced final referendum results and
passage of the constitution October 25, publicly
certifying the results shortly thereafter. In what
appeared a conciliatory gesture to Sunni Arabs,
Deputy Speaker Shahristani said that those who had
elected to vote "no" had expressed a "respectable"
opinion. The biggest Sunni Arab political party, the
Iraqi Islamic Party, responded carefully, noting it had
questions about the Ninewa vote but looked forward to
resolving questions about the constitution in the next
national assembly. Outspoken Sunni Arab politician
Saleh Mutlak told the Arab media that the results were
fraudulent. He called for a revote in some provinces.
However, he stopped short of saying he would boycott the
December national elections. Our sense is that there
likely will be Sunni Arab complaints and protests, but
the approach of December election list registration
deadline will focus minds on that very quickly. END
SUMMARY


2. (SBU) On October 25, the IECI announced final
referendum results at a 1:30 press conference. At a
subsequent public signing event, Iraqi Commissioners,
joined by UN/EAD chief Carina Perelli, signed a
document affirming that that the referendum had passed
in accordance with Article 61 of the Transitional
Administrative Law. The document listed final results
for each province. After the press event,
Commissioners and UN staff were jubilant, and exuded a
sense of relief and accomplishment. Commissioners and
UN staff congregated to offer each other praise and
congratulations. UN legal advisor Jose Maria Aranaz
mentioned that the group had been up until 2:30 that
morning finalizing arrangements. Commissioners Hamdia
Al-Hussani and Aida Al-Salihi mentioned with wide
smiles that they were looking forward to finally going
home to get some sleep, but noted that challenges
associated with the December 15 election are looming.
Commissioner Farid Ayar told PolOff that the moment of
celebration would be short-lived as the December 15
election will now take center stage.

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MEASURED RESPONSE FROM IIP; BLAST FROM MUTLAK
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3. (U) In an interview on al-Jazeera, the Sunni
Arab-dominated Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) Political
Bureau's member Ayad al-Azzi offered a cautious
response. He emphasized that the IIP had reservations
over the draft and the vote in Ninewa, but would seek
to address their concerns through the next national
assembly.


4. (U) Outspoken Sunni Arab critic of the government
Saleh Mutlak denounced the referendum results on
several networks. He alleged massive fraud in Ninewa,
Diyala and throughout the south. He claimed that state
security institutions had interfered to change the
results. He also claimed that he would not recognize
the constitution unless the vote was held again in
Diwaniya, Samawah, Mosul, and Diyala. However, he
stopped short of calling for a boycott of the December
national elections. Instead, Mutlak demanded
"international observers" for any future elections in
Iraq.


5. (C) Similarly, Sunni Arab politician and opponent
of the constitution Hatem al-Mukhlis told Poloff
October 24 that the next assembly would be key, as the
constitution has dozens of areas where additional
legislation is required. Mukhlis was convinced that
the vote had been rigged but planned to work with the
system. (Comment: In Mukhlis' case, this might mean
running with Saleh Mutlak's election list, he told us.
End Comment.)

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SHAHRISTANI TAKES HIGH ROAD
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6. (U) Deputy TNA Speaker Husayn Shahristani -- who
had prematurely declared the constitution passed
several days ago -- appeared cautious not to gloat in
a separate interview on Al-Hurra-Iraq. Shahristani
said that the will of the people was clear, but the
decision to vote "no" had been "a respectable
opinion." He said he looked forward to the next
Council of Representatives as a forum to push the
Iraqi political process forward.

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WAITING FOR THE FINAL REPORT
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7. (C) We have still not seen the report promised by
Perelli ref including the findings of the audit
teams that conducted ballot checks in Erbil, Babil,
Basrah and Ninewa. Perelli told Poloff on the
margins of the press conference announcing final
results, that she had sent the report to New York
for clearance. During the press conference,
Commissioner Farid responded to a question about
the audit reports by noting that nothing had been
discovered that would affect the outcome of the
referendum. He made a similar assertion about the
135 referendum-related complaints received by
the IECI.

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COMMENT
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8. (C) We should anticipate over the next several
days Sunni Arabs complaints about the referendum
results. The deadline for registering political
coalitions and candidate lists for the December
national elections is October 28. In Baghdad the
negotiating is fast and furious about candidate
lists and possible electoral alliances. Our sense
is that the Sunni Arab political leadership for the
most part will quickly focus back on that work. We
will, however, monitor Sunni Arab reaction carefully
and will urge that the election commission talk
directly to Sunni Arab leaders about complaints with
the process.


Satterfield