ALLAWI COALITION BUILDING EFFORTS NEARING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004323

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI COALITION BUILDING EFFORTS NEARING
COMPLETION

REF: BAGHDAD 04270

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. Former PM Ayad Allawi is reportedly
putting the final touches on a wide secular coalition
for the December elections. Iraqi Communist Party
Secretary General Hamid Majid Mussa told us October 19

SIPDIS
that Allawi has completed his coalition negotiations
and was completing negotiations on candidate lists
(see paragraph 2),which include a wide range of key
secular leaders who ran separately in the last
election. Other potential coalition members gave
differing reports and said that coalition negotiations
are still ongoing. End Summary.

--------------
New Coalition Complete?
--------------


2. (C) Iraqi Communist Party Secretary General Hamid
Majid Mussa told Poloff on October 19 that Allawi had
completed his coalition negotiations and was putting
the final touches on candidate lists. Mussa, whose
party ran on a separate slate in the January
elections, will join forces with Allawi for the
December vote in a group tentatively named the "The
Patriotic Iraqi List." Mussa said the Allawi
coalition currently includes, among others, the
following key political groups and leaders:

-- Iraqi National Accord (Wifaq, Allawi's party)
-- Adnan al-Pachachi
-- Naseer Chaderchi
-- Arab Socialist Movement
-- Mufid al-Jaza'iri, former IIG minister
-- Ayad Jamal al-Din, independent cleric
-- Husayn al-Sadr, independent cleric
-- Wijdan Mikhael Salim

--------------
But Others Report No Final Deals Yet
--------------


3. (C) On October 19, Poloffs spoke with coalition
supporters Wijdan Mikhael Salim (Chaldo-Assyrian TNA
member) and Hussein Al-Adili (Islamic Democratic Trend
Party),as well as conference participant Mohammed
Ismael (assistant of Anadem Al-Jabiri, head of the
Fadhila Party). All expressed their hopes for a
government that is more representative of all Iraqis
and less sectarian.


4. (C) Adili said the main goal was to form a
coalition that can rival the 169 List to balance the
National Assembly. Our sources, including Ghazi al-
Yawr on October 19, said coalition negotiations are
underway. None would confirm the finalization of any
deals. Regarding the Sunnis at the conference, Al-
Adili said there was no final agreement between the
Iraqi Islamic Party and the Allawi team. Saad Janabi,
whose cross-sectarian Iraqi Republican Gathering
attended the October 17 conference, told us October 18
that the Islamic Party might put some candidates on
Allawi's Patriotic List in selected governorates.
The future of the Shia Islamist party Fadhila as an
Allawi partner is also up in the air. Fadhila leader
Nadim al-Jabiri attended and spoke at the October 17
conference. However, Jabiri's aide Ismael said no
coalition deals had been finalized. He indicated that
Fadhila also is negotiating with Sadr, SCIRI, and
Dawa.

-------------- ---
Other Views on Allawi Coalition Building Efforts
-------------- ---


5. (C) Vice President Ghazi al-Yawr told PolCouns on
October 19 that he was snubbed at the conference, did
not deliver his speech and left the conference early.
He didn't blame Ayad Allawi but rather his conference
planner Mehdi Hafez for the order in which politicians
spoke at the event. (Yawr was keen to point out that
given his social level, vice presidency, and control
of 5 TNA seats, he should have spoken after Ayad
Allawi. Instead Fadhila Party's Nadeem al-Jabiri, and
ICP Hamid Mussa, spoke second and third respectively.
Al-Yawar was scheduled to speak fourth but instead
left the conference.) However, Al-Yawar said he still
leaves the door open for an Allawi alliance.


6. (C) Faisal Qaragholi, Member of the Constitutional
Monarchy political party (but not invited to the
conference) told PolOff on October 18 that Allawi is
trying very hard to win National Assembly seats by
having Kurds, Sunni and Shia on one coalition. But
the minds of most Shia will not be able to grasp
voting for an Allawi list that has Sunni, Communists
and Kurds. Faisal labeled the conference a rainbow
coalition that gave the limelight to a host of
political speakers and did not result in any
guarantees of signing on to Allawi's coalition.

--------------
Comment
--------------


7. (C) So far, we are aware of no other broad, cross-
sectarian political alliance as the December 2005
elections near. Ayad Allawi seems to have built a
coalition that includes a wide range of key secular
leaders who ran separately in the last election.
Whether Allawi will be able to broaden the coalition
to larger Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish parties remains to
be seen. We are urging our contacts that favor
liberal, centrist politics to think seriously of how
to work as part of a larger electoral alliance like
Allawi's.


Satterfield