IRAQI ELECTION COMMISSION DELAYS ANNOUNCEMENT OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004271

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015
TAGS: PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTION COMMISSION DELAYS ANNOUNCEMENT OF

REFERENDUM RESULT

REF: BAGHDAD 4268

Classified By: DCM David Satterfield for reasons 1.4
(B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. UN Special Representative (SRSG) Qazi
told P5 Chiefs of Mission late October 17 that the
announcement of the constitution referendum results
would be delayed while the Iraqi election commission
investigates potential irregularities. Preliminary
information from IECI field offices revealed that 12
governorates showed a 90 percent or more vote for one
side or the other in the referendum. In the end there
may be no abuses involved, Qazi cautioned. However,
the election commission is suspicious of such high
percentage results and is launching an investigation
that may take at least two or three days before
preliminary results can be determined. We made the
point that a delay of a couple days will not be
particularly problematic, but if it lasts longer it
could cause problems for the tight election calendar.
The IECI in that case should be prepared to give
preliminary results while conditioning the public that
these results might change. We also stressed that the
investigation must be conducted in a manner that
preserves the credibility and transparency of the
IECI. The departure of UN/EAD Perelli before the
final referendum results are announced could be
problematic since the vote count could be contentious
and the Iraqi election commission may well need UN
technical expertise and support more than ever up to
the time the results are announced. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a short minute meeting called by UNAMI on
October 17, UN SRSG Ashraf Qazi briefed the Ambassador
and other P5 Chiefs of Mission on fast-developing
details regarding potential widespread fraud in the
October 15 referendum. Qazi stated that UN/EAD and
current International Commissioner to the Independent
Election Commission of Iraq (IECI),Carina Perelli,
revealed that returns indicate a 90 percent vote in
favor of one side or the other in 12 of the 18
governorates. These lop-sided returns have raised
suspicions among the IECI Board.


3. (C) Qazi explained that the IECI in Baghdad
received this information from their respective
Governorate Electoral Offices (GEO) after each GEO
submitted their field counts of all the Form 98 total
they received from the field (Note: Each polling
station uses the Form 98 to capture the results of the
hand count prior to sealing the ballots in the
respective ballot box. End note.) Due to the
extraordinarily high vote totals in favor of one side
or the other in the majority of the governorates,
Perelli and the IECI commissioners agreed to
immediately conduct an investigation to evaluate the
accuracy of the GEO reporting and to determine if
there is any evidence of fraud.


4. (C) The IECI will first conduct a review of all
copies of the Form 98 in each impacted governorate,
followed by an inventory of sample ballot boxes
currently held in secure storage under GEO control.
This will require the IECI to ship the sample boxes to
the Baghdad IECI headquarters. After this sample
survey, the Board of Commissioners will make an
initial assessment about the extent of possible fraud.
If the IECI determines there is no serious fraud, then
it will go forward in announcing preliminary results.
UN Election Team lawyer Jose Maria Aranaz noted that
there were 170,000 observers during the referendum
process and so far no serious charges of abuses.


5. (C) The IECI intends to issue a press release about
the delay of results. The Ambassador, along with UK
Ambassador Patey, urged Qazi to recommend to the
election commission that it issue preliminary results
of the referendum as soon as practicable. Qazi
resisted, but post will press that the Iraqi public be
kept apprised of any developments in a fully
transparent manner. Qazi does not expect preliminary
results for a couple of days as the investigation has
been slowed due to a sandstorm that temporarily halted
the air shipment of the Form 98 copies to the IECI
Baghdad Tally Center.


6. (C) COMMENT: Qazi himself admitted that there may
be no fraud at all; it may be no more than a "storm in
a teacup," he observed. We understand from another
source close to the election commission that nearly
all of the 12 governorates in question recorded
enormous "yes" vote counts. As we have reported,
there is already considerable media speculation in
Iraq about the results (see ref). Thus, election
commission acknowledgement of potential fraud will
only raise public interest further. The IECI handled
only with difficulty the allegations of fraud in the
January 2005 elections. It will likely be similarly
challenged this time. Therefore, the departure of UN
election advisory team leader Perelli before the
announcement of the final results would be
problematic.
Khalilzad