IRAQI POLITICIANS SPINNING REFERENDUM RESULTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004268

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI POLITICIANS SPINNING REFERENDUM RESULTS

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Iraqi politicians were quick to begin
spinning results of the October 15 referendum, issuing
statements to the media on provincial voting well
before the Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq
(IECI) began its tally of governorate ballot sheets.
While such spinning is to be expected after a major
vote, in the current Iraqi context, pre-tally
assertions about the outcome threaten to undermine the
credibility of the ultimate referendum result. This
is of particular concern in Ninewa, as Kurdish, Shia
and Sunni Arab leaders have made strident and
dramatically different pronouncements about the
percentages of "yes" and "no" votes in this
potentially decisive swing province. Such pre-tally
rhetoric could lay the groundwork for future
assertions that the referendum results were cooked.
We are urging the political parties to stop talking
about the outcome in the media and to let the IECI
finish the count first. We are urging the IECI to
reiterate its commitment to the integrity of the
process. END SUMMARY.

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SPINNING TAKES OFF
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2. (C) With the fate of the draft constitution likely
hanging on results in Ninewa and Salah ad-Din
provinces, Shia, Kurdish and Sunni Arab politicians
began to declare results October 15, even though the
IECI did not begin to tally ballot sheets until 1000
hrs, October 17. Ammar al-Hakim (son of SCIRI leader
Abd' al-Aziz) was quoted on al-Sharqia television
October 16 as saying that 70 percent of Ninewa had
voted yes. Ninewa Deputy Governor Khasro Goran said
on al-Arabiya television October 16 that 60 percent of
the provincial vote had been in support of the
constitution.


3. (C) For their part, Sunni Arab leaders appear to be
waging a preemptive media campaign against a possible
positive referendum result, assailing its credibility
even as the vote count proceeds. National Dialogue
Council Spokesman Sa'adun Zubaidi claimed in an
October 16 al-Hurra broadcast that the referendum
process was illegitimate because copies of the
constitution were not distributed early enough to the
Iraqi people for them to have a chance to absorb them.
A spokesman for a group calling itself the "Mosul
Independents" asserted in an October 16 al-Sharqiyya
TV interview that all of Ninewa had voted against the
constitution and that any results indicating otherwise
were clearly forged.


4. (C) Meanwhile, Sunni Arab politician Saleh Mutlak
appeared on al-Jazeera and al-Arabia October 16 to
predict -- and to "warn" the USG -- about potential
civil disobedience by Sunni Arabs if a "yes" vote
"proved" there was referendum fraud in Ninewah. After
Mutlak's statements, PolCouns called him to urge him
to avoid inflammatory rhetoric and bring any evidence
he has of fraud to the attention of the IECI. Mutlak
conceded he had no evidence. However, he noted that
the National Dialogue Council has observers in Ninewa
who report that the provincial vote in the referendum
had gone 80 percent against the constitution. Multak
added that the disparity between these reports and
Shia and Kurdish claims that the vote had gone heavily
the other way suggested the danger of fraud.


5. (C) Separately, Poloff received four calls in the
space of two hours the evening of October 16, from
Zuhair Humadi, senior aide to VP Abd' al-Mahdi
(SCIRI),concerning Ninewa results. In his initial
call, Zuhair assured poloff that northern Ninewa and
Mosul had voted overwhelmingly in support of the
constitution. Poloff replied that he could not
comment as we were getting conflicting, preliminary
reports. Zuhair called back shortly thereafter to say
that votes cast in the province had been only 600,000
(preliminary IECI estimates are that Ninewa
participation was around 800,000). In his third call
Zuhair reported that he had heard from a reliable
source that ballot counting had yet to begin for
either Mosul or Tikrit. Another SCIRI source
contacted another Poloff making similar assertions.
Embassy poloffs in both instances urged that Iraqi
political figures avoid stating numerical results and
to let the IECI make the official pronouncements.

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NEED FOR IECI CLARITY
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6. (C) In separate October 16 conversations with
poloffs, UN/EAD chief Carina Perelli and IECI
Commissioner Farid Ayar verified that the Commission
intended to release preliminary referendum results on
or about October 17, with uncertified final figures
around October 19. Perelli acknowledged that the IECI
needs to be out front in publicly replying to partisan
spinning of the Ninewa results, such as Mutlak's
implication about fraud in Ninewa. She agreed to push
Commissioner Farid Ayar to make a strong statement
affirming commitment to a fair count, including in
Sunni Arab majority areas. Poloff also asked that UN
EAD staff verify the secure status of ballot documents
throughout the country in IECI-controlled warehouses.
He asked that particular attention be paid to security
in areas where the outcome may be close and local
militias are strong. (COMMENT: Perelli is currently
scheduled to leave Iraq on or about October 20. In
light of the potentially serious controversy over the
referendum outcome, her departure before the final
results are announced would be especially problematic.
END COMMENT)

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PRESS REPORTS QUESTIONED
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7. (C) Meanwhile press reports appeared October 16
quoting IECI provincial staff commentary on
governorate outcomes. Samira Mohammed Al Nea'mi, an
IECI information department employee in Mosul, was
quoted by the Associated Press October 16 as having
reported that 300,000 Ninewa voters had supported the
constitution and 80,000 had opposed. REO Mosul
contacted Al Nea'mi late October 16, and she denied
ever having provided this information.


8. (C) In an October 16 conversation with UN elections
officer David Avery, poloff raised a similar report
from Salah ad-Deen, quoting a provincial IECI source
as saying voters in the province had overwhelmingly
voted 'no'. Poloff noted that such pre-tally media
reports could undermine public confidence in the
credibility of the referendum process. Avery agreed,
and told poloff that IECI Baghdad has previously
instructed each GEO to conduct a review of the
'Counting Form 98' and pass only the 'yes' and 'no'
totals back to the IECI. Avery explained that the
IECI intended to use this data as a preliminary count
only so as to be available for release given expected
high demand for numbers. Although each GEO is
prohibited from making these figures public, Avery
said that political entity monitors present at counts
may in some cases have leaked information. Avery said
that information in the press about returns should at
this stage be disregarded.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Some spinning is to be expected, but these pre-
tally pronouncements by Iraqi political leaders
threatens to spread into a campaign on either side
questioning the results. We will keep urging the
politicians to let the IECI make the announcements of
official results and to use IECI mechanisms to
question any tallies.
Khalilzad