Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BAGHDAD4242
2005-10-15 20:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

FIRST REACTIONS TO REFERENDUM: SHIA CONFIDENCE,

Tags:  IZ PGOV PNAT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004242 

SIPDIS

CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015
TAGS: IZ PGOV PNAT
SUBJECT: FIRST REACTIONS TO REFERENDUM: SHIA CONFIDENCE,
SUNNI ARABS REFLECTIVE

Classified By: (U) POLCOUNS ROBERT S. FORD, REASON 1.4 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004242

SIPDIS

CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015
TAGS: IZ PGOV PNAT
SUBJECT: FIRST REACTIONS TO REFERENDUM: SHIA CONFIDENCE,
SUNNI ARABS REFLECTIVE

Classified By: (U) POLCOUNS ROBERT S. FORD, REASON 1.4 (D)


1. (C) Summary: So far, the UN election advisory
team has not heard of significant irregularities
during the voting operation on October 15. In
contrast to the January 2005 election, this time
our Assyrian Christian contacts in Baghdad so
far are not complaining of serious problems with
the voting in the North. The UN advisory team
team chief told us late October 15 that the Sunni
Arab vote was up significantly, while the Kurdish
vote appears to be less than it was in January 2005.
The Shia Islamist camp is confident that the draft
constitution has passed in the referendum. Our
quick survey of some Sunni Arab contacts showed they
are more reflective, but in agreement that voting was
the right thing to do. We will be attentive to
allegations of irregularities even as interest shifts
from the voting to the vote count, especially the
counts in Ninewah and Salah ad-Din.

--------------
UN ADVISOR REVIEWS TURNOUT AND PROBLEMS
--------------


2. (C) In an evening meeting with Poloffs, UN EAD
chief Carina Perelli confided that preliminary
indications are that Kurdish participation in Erbil
and Sulimaniyah had been lower than in January.
Sunni Arab participation in Anbar and Salah ad-Din
had been higher and Shia participation in the South
and South-Central had been about the same. She
added that participation in Mosul appeared to have
been higher than in January, attributing the
increase to Sunni Arab voters.


3. (C) Perelli shared with Poloffs a list of
alleged irregularities or other incidents
adversely affecting voting operations that had been
reported to the Independent Election Commission of
Iraq (IECI). While she noted that the list could
still grow, as of 20:30 local time it contained
only 26 reported incidents. Many of these had been
investigated and dismissed as lacking foundation.
Others included a fire set at a school used as a
polling center in Ramadi and a hostage situation
involving polling staff at a different center in
Ramadi. Perelli stressed that the background to
the hostage incident appeared to be a tribal, not
insurgency-related, matter.


-------------- --------------
Assyrian Christians: Better than January, So Far
-------------- --------------


4. (C) William Warda, the spokesman for the
Assyrian Democratic Movement, told PolCouns late
October 15 that in contrast to the January
2005 election, he had heard of no serious
problems in northern Iraq during the referendum.
He cautioned that he still had only sketchy
information from the North because of poor
communications with their offices. The voting in
places like Mosul, Barthalla and Basheqa went
far better. It would be important now to be sure
the vote count was proper, he noted. He said that
his sources in Ninewah were saying that the vote
counts in polling stations where the Assyrians
had sources indicated the draft constitution was
losing. Warda said he did not know by what
margin it was losing.

--------------
Confidence in the Shia Islamist Camp
--------------


5. (C) A top aide to Constitution Committee
Chairman and Shia Islamist Humam al-Hamudi was in
a festive mood when Poloff spoke with him during
the evening of 15 October. He said he expected
the constitution would pass smoothly but admitted
that he had no "real statistics" to back that
up. He dismissed concerns about Salah al-Din,
saying the Shia voters in the province would
prevent any no vote from reaching two-thirds.
He also dismissed concerns about Ninewah
predicting with assurance that "The Kurds will
not let that province vote no!"

--------------
Initial Sunni Reactions: Voting is Important
--------------


6. (C) Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) spokesman Ayed
Samarrai'e told PolCouns midday October 15 that
he thought the vote was proceeding smoothly. He
had no major complaints, including from IIP
observers watching polling operations.
Samarrai'e noted that the IIP decision to change
its position to support of the constitution had
caused some dissension within the IIP.
Nonetheless, he thought its base would come
around. He said the director of Baghdad TV,
affiliated with the IIP, had told him early
October 15 that phone calls to the station had
switched from sharply critical of the IIP
decision to supportive. Samarrai'e would not
hazard a guess on the outcome in Ninewah or Salah
ad-Din, however.

7. (C) Iraqi Council for National Dialogue (ICND)
member Sa'adoon al-Zubaidi warned Poloff October
15 that if the constitution passed by a large
margin, the Sunni population will claim fraud and
ballot stuffing by the Shia and Kurds. He
thought a narrow win would be more credible. He
also said he was frustrated with the lack of time
available for Iraqis to obtain and understand the
constitution. Poloff reminded him the Iraqi
newspapers could have printed it, and the
protracted negotiations of which Zubaidi was a
part delayed printing and distribution of the
text. Zubaidi didn't argue.


8. (C) Hatem al-Mukhlis, Editor of Al Watan
newspaper and Tikrit native, told PolOff on
October 15 that he didn't like the constitution
very much but he had urged people to vote in the
referendum. He was upset by reports today of
Sunni clerics in Baghdad's Adhamiya neighborhood
allegedly telling people to boycott the vote.
This same "nonsense" in January caused the
political troubles of today, he commented.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


9. (C) We will be attentive to allegations of
irregularities during the voting even as everyone's
attention shifts to the vote count. Calls from
journalists and our political contacts suggests
that most people are watching with greatest
interest the outcome in Ninewah and Salah ad-Din
to determine if the draft constitution passed.
Khalilzad