MGIZ02: POWER DISRUPTION, FUEL IMPORT SHORTAGES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004230

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2015
TAGS: ECON ENRG EPET MOPS MARR PGOV PINS PREL TU IZ
SUBJECT: MGIZ02: POWER DISRUPTION, FUEL IMPORT SHORTAGES
AND A MAJOR PIPELINE EXPLOSION ON THE EVE OF THE REFERENDUM

Classified By: Economic Minister Counselor Tom Delare for reasons 1.4 (
b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: On the eve of the Constitutional referendum,
Iraqis face an almost general electricity blackout, another
round of fuel shortages, and a major pipeline breach at the
critical al-Fatah Crossing in the north. A decision to amply
supply Baghdad with fuel at this time has produced shortages
elsewhere. End Summary.

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MAJOR BLACKOUT REPORTED ACROSS IRAQ
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2. (SBU) Ministry of Electricity advisor Ayser Habib
reported that, as of 1845 hours October 14, Iraq is suffering
a blackout in more than two-thirds of the country. Power in
the central Baghdad area and the Southern provinces went off
line at approximately 1830 hours; the cause of the blackout
remains unknown. Power in the far north is still
functioning, as are Mosul and Haditha dams. Ministry of
Electricity Advisor Haitham Yaseem reported that power surges
due to the loss of a 400 kV line in the south, combined with
the ongoing interdiction of the two Bajyi-Baghdad West 400kV
lines, triggered instability in the national grid.

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Fuel Supplies Low in the North
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3. (SBU) Due to an earlier decision by the National Energy
Council to plus-up fuel supplies in Baghdad, other parts of
the country are suffering shortages. Furthermore, since the
State Oil Marketing Organization (SOMO) canceled and
re-issued many of its import contracts effective October 1
(see septel),the balanced distribution between the four
types of fuel (gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and propane) has
been disrupted. On October 14, for example, 218 trucks
crossed into Iraq from Turkey: 126 carried of them carried
diesel, 89 carried propane, three carried kerosene, and zero
carried gasoline. Although Baghdad has 10.2 days of gasoline
supply on hand as of October 12, the northern city of Mosul
has only 1.6 days on hand. With only a few days storage
capacity, Mosul relies on daily shipments to keep up with
demand. Any interruption or diversion of imports is felt
there almost immediately.

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Explosion at al-Fatah
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3. (C) An October 12 explosion on an oil pipeline north of
the al-Fatah Bridge, on the Tigris River near Bayji, ignited
a temporary gas pipeline that runs over the bridge. The
subsequent massive fireball engulfed three pipelines: one
crude oil and two natural gas lines (sour and dry gas),
causing a portion of the bridge to collapse into the river.
Sour gas delivery to the Bayji power plant has been
interrupted and the Daura, Taji, and Mosul power plants are
operating at reduced pressure, as gas is being re-routed
through a smaller 8 inch line. The cause of the pipeline
explosion and full effect of this incident is not yet known;
unconfirmed reports of a mortar attack are being
investigated. It will be several days before the fire can be
extinguished and repairs even begun, although some oil and
gas is being re-routed on other lines.


4. (C) The total economic impact of the disruption is not
clear at this point, however there will be less electricity
generation due to reduced delivery of Kirkuk gas to the
northern power plants. MoO has had to shut down the
unaffected 26 inch crude oil pipeline, as related repairs to
a manifold on that line cannot be completed until the fire is
put out and the site cools off. The fire is expected to last
five days (Note: The long burn time is caused by the lack of
valves in the pipeline, requiring the draining of the entire
contents to the lowest point in the line, which is where the
fire is located. End Note).




Khalilzad