CHRISTIAN VOTERS TO HELP SINK THE CONSTITUTION?

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004143

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR PNAT IZ
SUBJECT: CHRISTIAN VOTERS TO HELP SINK THE CONSTITUTION?

REF: MOSUL 149

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) The leading Christian politician in Transitional
National Assembly, Yonadam Kanna told PolOff, however, that
many Christians are unhappy with the draft because Section
One, Article 2A declares that no law can be passed that
contradicts Islam. Moreover, some Christian minorities,
such as the Syriacs take umbrage that they are not
mentioned among the minority groups listed in the
constitution. According to Christian leaders, there are
about 200,000 Christians in Ninawa province, of which
100,000 are registered voters. Of these, he predicts about
60,000 of them will vote against the draft constitution.


2. (C) Ban Shakir Al-Imarah, Women's Alliance for a
Democratic Iraq, who is an Assyrian Christian, told PolOff
on October 7 that the constitution is "horrible" and the
Kurds have successfully weakened Iraq's Christians by
separating Chaldeans and Assyrians in order to ensure their
control of Ninewah. She also claimed that, while Chaldeans
and Assyrians overall want to be united as one group, the
Kurds were able to "buy off" their religious leaders in
exchange for agreement to a separation in the constitution.


3. (C) Head of the Christian and Other Religions
Endowments Abdullah Hermiz al-Noufali agreed with Kanna and
al-Imarah about Christians' concerns regarding the
constitution; however, he pointed out that the Christian
leadership was really driven by a desire to protect its
separate infrastructures. Nonetheless, said al-Noufali,
the result is a constitution that will be harmful to
Christians and he predicted that the majority of them would
vote against it. He also noted that many priests are
encouraging their congregations to vote "no" in the
referendum.


4. (C) COMMENT: Kanna, al-Imarah, and al-Noufali's
comments on Christian discontent with the constitution
agree with reports from REO Mosul (see reftel). Recent
polling on the draft constitution shows that around 70
percent of voters in Ninawa province state they will vote
against the draft constitution. Given the two-thirds
threshold needed in three provinces for the Sunni Arabs to
block the draft constitution, Christian and Shebak (another
ethnic minority group) communities in Ninawa province,
which total roughly ten percent of the governorate
population, could become decisive in deciding whether
Ninawa is one of the three provinces decisively rejecting
the constitution. END COMMENT.
Khalilzad