DAILY IRAQI WEBSITE MONITORING - October 4, 2005

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 004105

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, NEA/PPD, NEA/PPA, NEA/AGS, INR/IZ, INR/P

E.0. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO IZ
SUBJECT: DAILY IRAQI WEBSITE MONITORING - October 4, 2005

SUMMARY: Discussion of violence in Iraq, out-of-country
voting, coalition withdrawal, and the Talabani-Ja'fari
dispute were the major editorial themes of Iraqi, Arabic
language websites on October 4, 2005. END SUMMARY.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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A. "Iraq . An Open Field for Violence" (Iraq 4 All News,
10/4)

B. "Beware, Fareed Ayar" (Sawt Al-Iraq, 10/4)

C. "Occupation Forces' Withdrawal from Iraq Is Near" (Sawt
Al-Iraq, 10/4)

D. "Storm-Swept Power-Sharing Alliances" (Al-Rafidayn, 10/4)

SELECTED COMMENTARIES
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A. "Iraq . An Open Field for Violence"
(Editorial by "Oman" - Iraq 4 All News -
http://iraq4all.org/viewnews.php?id=10185 )

"It seems that what is taking place in Iraq is an endless
tide of violence that could develop into civil war if
differences among political parties are not resolved.
Recently, disputes between President Al-Talabani and Prime
Minister Al-Ja'fari have surfaced; the President criticized
the Prime Minister for his unilateral decision-making and
his failure to commit to agreements between Shiite and
Kurdish parties, which formed the basis for the transitional
government. Taking into consideration that security
continues to deteriorate, the situation appears to be quite
serious-to the extent that many U.S. military officials have
explicitly pointed out the difficulty of the situation in
Iraq.

"Based on Arab and international indifference towards Iraq,
and the inability of U.S. forces to provide security to
Iraqis, anything seems possible, including civil war. No one
can predict what the consequences would mean for the unity
of Iraq.

"The sectarian model continues to create many problems among
Iraqis. Iraq needs all of its citizens to unite and look
beyond temporary benefits. Iraq is going through a serious
political phase; it will be threatened by division if
politicians, clerics, and other effective powers do not deal
with the situation that has developed since the fall of the
former regime.

"The situation in Iraq is difficult. Iraqis are exposed to
death from violence and instability. The situation does not
provide any chance for a stable government, nor does it
allow for reconstruction to commence.

"Against such a tragic scene, a serious stand is required,
first by the Iraqi people, and second by occupation forces,
by announcing an official timetable for withdrawal that
could create an air of optimism among Iraqis. But if this
situation continues, then the unity and independence of Iraq
is in danger."


B. "Beware, Fareed Ayar"
(Editorial by Tahseen Al-Munthiri - Sawt Al-Iraq - "Voice of
Iraq" - http://www.sotaliraq.com/articles-
iraq/nieuws.php?id=16718 )

"No one knows the standards that the U.N. used to choose
seven electoral commissioners from among 1,500 candidates to
make decisions in the most critical sector of the current
Iraqi scene. They have the right to approve political
entities, election results, appeals, monitors, etc . etc.

"The commission's law of formation, No. 92, is simple. It
does not suffer from the complications of the commission
itself. The commission is simply an entity similar to the
council of ministers, with the same authority to manipulate
the political process. Two names have emerged since the
formation of the commission; they are the head of the
commission, Abdul Hussein Al-Hindawi, and the commission's
media spokesman, Fareed Ayar. Mr. Ayar has established
relationships with the media; created a dispute with the
head of the commission; demanded this man's resignation;
refuted his own [Ayar's] statements; announced that he is
stepping down from the post of media spokesman; returned as
the media expert; and is currently working to oppose Iraqi
expatriates' participation in the elections. He achieved
great success in ruling out their participation in the
referendum and is now leading a campaign to prevent Iraqis
abroad from voting in the elections late this year.
"It seems that significant changes have taken place at the
commission lately. Adil Al-Lami has emerged as the
commission's director general. He told the Al-A'lam channel
that the commission is nothing more than an executive body
that executes the National Assembly's decisions. This
statement encouraged Iraqis abroad to address the Assembly
to regain their right to participate in next December's
election. They were quite optimistic about the results
before Mr. Ayar returned to declare the difficulty of
holding elections abroad. He offered four options for
including Iraqi expatriates; the first, second, and fourth
options included financial, security, and other difficulties
that Ayar was happy to point out, while the third option was
simply to postpone their participation until further notice,
which only God Almighty and Mr. Ayar know about.

"The statements of the media expert were full of
contradictions. On one hand he complained of the small
numbers that turned out for elections compared to the total
number of Iraqis residing abroad, while on the other hand he
said no surveys were available on the number of Iraqi
expatriates. Then he said elections could be held at Iraqi
embassies but that it would be hard to provide for their
security, as if these embassies were located in Fallujah,
Latifiya, or Tal-Afar.

"Mr. Ayar said the commission had sent out memoranda to the
National Assembly, president, and prime minister explaining
the difficulties of holding elections abroad, but he did not
mention whether a request was made to cancel the process,
which I believe was the only content of these memoranda.

"I wonder about the motivation behind Mr. Ayar's grudge
against Iraqis abroad and why he insists on depriving them
of the opportunity to participate in the political process.
Is it to please a particular side, or is it a personal
thing? Only God knows."


C. "Occupation Forces' Withdrawal from Iraq Is Near"
(Editorial by Hussein Ali Ghalib - Sawt Al-Iraq - "Voice of
Iraq" - http://www.sotaliraq.com/articles-
iraq/nieuws.php?id=16719 )

"The departure of U.S. and British military forces is
undoubtedly very near. Political analysts, parties, clerics,
and British and American media do not have anything to talk
about except Iraq-the huge losses and the cost of this war.
In America, demonstrations were bigger than anticipated; the
organizers did not expect them to spread to several states.
In Britain, the same thing happened.

"U.S. congressmen opposed [President] George Bush's policy.
Some of them are trying to amass their efforts to force the
U.S. army to return home and to put President Bush in a
difficult situation. He would have to prove his decision
regarding the war [the decision to go to war] was successful
from one perspective, but unsuccessful from other
perspectives. He successfully toppled Saddam Hussein's
regime; on the other hand, the U.S. army suffered many
casualties.

"The plans and agendas regarding Iraqi policy failed. This
was recognized by all American officials, decision makers in
the White House, and think tanks. The British stance is
represented by the public's outrage, which the British
government cannot ignore. British officials will announce a
specific timetable for the withdrawal of British troops from
Iraq. We only need to wait and follow the news to discover
the date of American and British withdrawal from Iraq, and
note it as one of the key events in contemporary Iraqi
history."


D. "Storm-Swept Power-Sharing Alliances"
(Editorial by Majid Lafta Al `Abaidi - Al-Rafidayn - "The
Two Rivers" -
http://www.alrafidayn.com/Story/News/N03_10_1 9.html )

"Iraqi President Jalal Al-Talabani's statements were not new
to the Iraqi political audience, which was already aware of
the contents of the Kurdistan Coalition's two memos
submitted to Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Ja'fari and the
United Iraqi Alliance. Both memos criticized the head of the
government for unilateral, dictatorial actions and for
failing to achieve any progress regarding the Kirkuk issue;
they also criticized him for failing to implement a
sectarian power-sharing agreement. This will allow him to
control 100% of the system instead of 50%; it allows the
prime minister and his ministers to fire their political
opponents-from deputy ministers to basic laborers-and to
replace them with members of the prime minister's party.

"On the other hand, the president turned his honorific post
into an executive one. This angered the prime minister, who
goes behind [the president's] back to prevent him from
controlling his job. An observer of the two leaders (the
prime minister and the president) when they attended the
funeral of Saudi King Fahd Bin Abdul Aziz and the U.N.
General Assembly meetings could see that Iraq has two heads
competing with one another to monopolize leadership.

"Mr. Talabani's statements criticizing Dr. Al-Ja'fari and
his government are `mercy bullets.' He seeks to form
political alliances in preparation for the parliamentary
elections, which will sort out new groups in the Iraqi
political arena."

KHALILZAD