ALLAWI POSTPONES CONFERENCE FOR CENTRIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004018

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PNAT IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI POSTPONES CONFERENCE FOR CENTRIST
COALITION

REF: BAGHDAD 3874

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Several TNA members have acknowledged
that ongoing political differences, not security
concerns, were the real reason former Prime Minister
Allawi recently postponed a conference to launch a
centrist political coalition. Some have refused to
participate in the coalition talks altogether, some
have joined but bristled at Allawi's autocratic style,
and others, most prominently the Iraqi Islamic Party,
have kept one foot in and one foot outside the talks.
Allawi is now expected to hold the conference after
the October 15 referendum. There appears to be a
desire among many Iraqi politicians for a centrist
bloc, but it remains to be seen whether Allawi can
actually pull it off, and time to put it together is
short. End Summary.

Postponing and Planning the Conference
--------------


2. (C) TNA member and Ayed Allawi political ally
Sheikh Muhammad Abd al-Ameer Sha'alan told Poloff
September 27 that Allawi had postponed the conference
until after the referendum so participants would be
focused on the elections. Sha'alan, just returned
from a planning meeting with former PM Ayad Allawi in
Amman, told PolOff on September 27 that conference
planners originally agreed to a three-part conference
to be held in Baghdad, Basra and Kut. Then Allawi
decided on one huge conference in Baghdad to create
the maximum buzz. They plan to invite everyone and
plan for 500-600 participants.


3. (C) Sha'alan said that the conference would aim to
establish a dialogue of moderation and do away with
sectarian divisions. It is to focus on the 'citizen
of Iraq' and prove to Iraqis that there is a
supportive forum for liberals and moderates. Sha'alan
said that Allawi wants to stir the silent majority who
are hesitant to make a stand. Planning committee
members have firm ideas regarding the goals of the
conference, but they await Allawi to make all final
decisions.

Core Conference Participants
--------------


4. (C) Iraqi Communist Party President Hamid Moussa
confirmed that the core group of participants is al-
Wifaq, the Sunni Arab Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP),the
Communist Party, and the Shia Islamist Dawa Movement,
the last being a splinter group from Jafari's Da'wa
Party based in Basra. Neither Sha'alan nor Moussa
could explain the IIP's September 25 press statement
denouncing any alliance with Allawi and participation
in this conference. Moussa countered that IIP members
have been very active in the planning sessions.
Sha'alan said that Allawi also plans to invite several
notable individual candidates, NGOs, and celebrities.
Sha'alan clarified that only the core group will
decide on the guidelines for the new political
alliance.


5. Democratic Islamic Trend leader Hussein al-Adili
told Poloffs September 25 that the Allawi-led
coalition still lacks any defined program. Adili
insisted that a purely secular program would not win
votes from an electorate that is very religious.
Instead, there has to be a blend of relgious and
liberal themes in a program, and the conference
organizers haven't developed this yet. For this
reason, he said, his party had not committed
definitively to joining with Allawi yet. Moreover, he
added, he was somewhat reluctant to join Allawi
because Allawi wants his allies to work for him, not
with him. Another key player in the coalition issue,
the Islamic Party, also appears to be hesitating. IIP
leader Tareq al-Hashemi, appearing with Sunni
political leader Adnan ad-Dulaimi on al-Arabiyah TV on
September 27 evening, said that the IIP was not
joining in a coalition with Allawi prior to the
election, but could do so after an election.

Perceptions of Allawi Also a Problem
--------------


6. (C) While Allawi tries to firm up his coalition,
other observers have less kind remarks in private
about the former Prime Minister. Hussein al-Adili
commented that Allawi still is perceived too close to
the Baath party to be an effective candidate
nationwide. Yezidi TNA member Adil Nasser Haji told
PolOff on September 27 that Allawi is a dictator who
refuses to delegate to others. Dawa member Dhiya al-
Shakarchi acknowledged to PolOff on September 27 that
Allawi is the best bet for a Shi'a moderate candidate,
but he has a controlling Ba'athist image.

Comment
--------------


7. (C) Despite great fanfare and expectations, Allawi
has not yet been able to get this conference organized
because not all of the partners are on board. He may
be able to regroup by late October, but he himself may
be too tainted to draw other secular moderates to his
side. There appears to be a desire among many Iraqi
politicians for a centrist bloc, but it remains to be
seen whether Allawi can actually pull it off. Time is
short. End Comment.
Khalilzad