PROPOSED CONFERENCE FOR POLITICAL MODERATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003874

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2025
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PNAT IZ KDEM
SUBJECT: PROPOSED CONFERENCE FOR POLITICAL MODERATES

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. C) Summary. Looking ahead to the December 15
elections, former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is planning to
launch a new multi-political party entity that is centrist
and moderate. There is a kick-off conference planned for
later this month, according to Allawi political allies.
Allawi's political partners in the bloc would include the
(Sunni Arab) Iraqi Islamic Party, the Communist Party,
(Shia Islamist) Herakat al-Dawa, and Kurdish
representatives. Allawi's political allies rebuffed
PolOff's recommendation on September 19 that the bloc lend
public support for the draft constitution; they said simply
that the bloc would implicitly accept the constitution;
they also doubted Prime Minister Jaafari would be publicly
supportive. Interestingly, Allawi - never much interested
in political organization - quietly has sought out training
opportunities for his old Iraqi National Accord group with
an American political NGO working here in advance of the
December elections. End Summary.

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New Political Alliance Forming
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2. (U) Al-Zaman newspaper reported September 19 that
former Planning Minister Mehdi Hafedh told a press
conference on September 17 that former Prime Minister
Allawi's Iraqi National Accord (INA) party would seek to
form an electoral bloc with the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP),
the Iraqi Communist party (ICP),the late Izzaldin Salim's
Herakat al-Dawa party and Kurdish representatives.
According to the story, the coalition's goal would be to
reduce sectarian extremism in Iraq and reinforce national
unity. It would also aim to reduce "foreign interference"
in Iraq, according to Hafedh. (Comment: Allawi in private
with us has underlined his strong concern about Iranian
interference in Iraq. End Comment.)


3. (C) INA member Taher Khalaf Jaber al-Baka (former IIG
Education Minister) confirmed to PolOff September 19 that
plans for a founding conference are underway. Al-Baka
noted that while members of PM Jafari's Dawa al-Islamiya
would not be participating, the splinter group formed by
the late Izzaldin Salim's Herakat al-Dawa would. Although
press reports indicated that Kurdish parties would be in
attendance, Iraqi Communist Party Secretary General Hamid
Majeed Musa told PolOff September 19 that the particulars
of the conference are not yet definite. He noted that
Kurdish leaders would not participate because they want to
remain separate to differentiate what the Kurdish political
leaders are able to deliver to Kurds and Kurdistan. INA
member and former Commerce Minister Muhammed Ali Abdul al-
Ameer claimed to PolOff September 19 that the express goal
of the founding conference is to form a new political
entity.

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Thinking About the Campaign
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4. (C) An American NGO official told PolCouns September 19
that his team has been working directly with Allawi for
weeks on an initiative to establish a broad-based bloc that
crosses sectarian lines. (He was surprised that Hafedh
spoke about the planned bloc publicly.) This included
several workshops with smaller secular and Islamist
parties, including Izzet Shahbandar's Islamic Democratic
Trend, with whom Allawi is trying to develop a larger
coalition. He noted that at the INA's request, the NGO
provided in July and August an intensive series of training
programs in organization building, campaign management and
political message development.

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A Political Platform in the Making
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5. (C) INA member Haifa Khashen Azzawi told PolOff that
the founding conference is the brainchild of both Allawi
and Hafedh. By including the IIP, she said, the INA would
be able to change the optic that it is too secular and
anti-Islamist. INA member Husayn Muhammad Hadi al-Sadr
(Muqtada's first cousin by marriage) told PolOff September
19 that the founding conference is the participants'
response to the current government's failure. The ITG, he
charged, has failed in all sectors of the economy and
services. Ministries have been built upon sectarian lines
and not competence. The severe lack of coordination
between the Presidency Council, National Assembly and Prime
Minister's Office has become increasingly embarrassing. Al-
Sadr cited as examples the two separate Iraqi delegations
to UNGA this year and four separate delegations to attend
King Fahd's funeral in Saudi Arabia. Hamid Moussa said the
conference is about national unity, fighting terrorism and
building an efficient, transparent government that respects
rule of law. As with Musa, PolOff said that a conference
of this kind was a step in the right direction for moderate
Iraqi parties.

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De facto Support for the Constitution
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6. (C) In all her conversations with the INA members above
PolOff urged that Allawi make public statements in support
of the draft constitution. All of these Allawi political
allies told PolOff that Allawi is unlikely to do so. They
also claimed that even Prime Minister Jafari won't publicly
support the constitution. Former Commerce Minister al-
Ameer highly doubted that the new entity would issue a
statement in support of the constitution or the referendum.
Ameer conceded that anyone who participates in the
conference de-facto accepts the new constitution. He added
that all of the participants surely have their reservations
about the constitution but also agree that the political
process should not be delayed.

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Comment
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7. (C) In the January 2005 election, Allawi's political
bloc was terribly organized, even if relatively well
financed. (He truly owned the airwaves of channels like
al-Arabiya and Sharqiya last January.) It is especially
interesting that Allawi is trying to build a new coalition
that crosses sectarian lines and that he is paying more
attention now to organization than he did last autumn.
Allawi has plenty of negative image problems here that he
will also have to manage; the coalition might help him in
that regard. We will pay close attention to the
development of this bloc as a potentially useful addition
to the Iraqi political scene.


Satterfield