AMBASSADOR AND COMMANDING GENERAL DISCUSS TAL AFAR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003690

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2015
TAGS: PREL PINS PTER PGOV MOPS IZ
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR AND COMMANDING GENERAL DISCUSS TAL AFAR
WITH PRIME MINISTER AND MCNS

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, a.i., DAVID M. SATTERFIELD FOR REASON
S 1.4 (a),(b),AND (d).


1. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) SUMMARY: The Iraqi Ministerial
Committee for National Security, chaired by Prime Minister
Jaafari, met September 5 to discuss the evolving situation in
Tal Afar and to plan a future course of action. Fears were
expressed that engaging in decisive military operations to
flush the insurgents from the city would result in
potentially heavy civilian casualties. While hope was held
that the Iraqi insurgents within the city could be enticed to
surrender or leave with an offer of amnesty, members agreed
that it is likely any foreign fighters in the city will stay
and fight. Concerns were also expressed that plans for the
post-conflict phase lag behind the military plans and are not
firm enough at this point to execute with confidence. It was
agreed that military shaping operations would continue, as
would political attempts to reach a solution that would
minimize the potential for major damage to the city or its
inhabitants. Planning for humanitarian operations,
reconstruction, compensation, and post-conflict governance
will also continue and will include a timeline for execution.
END SUMMARY.


2. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) Prime Minister Jaafari called a
meeting of the Ministerial Council on National Security
(MCNS) the night of September 5 to discuss the evolving
situation in Tal Afar. Ambassador, MNF-I Commanding General
and Deputy Commanding General, British Ambassador, and Acting
PolMil Counselor attended. In addition to the PM, the
Ministers of Defense, Interior, and National Security Affairs
attended, as did the National Security Advisor, the PM's lead
action officer on Tal Afar (Mr. Adnan Ali al-Kadhami),and
Mr. Safa al-Safi, Minister of State for Transitional National
Assembly Affairs.

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CURRENT SITUATION
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3. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) The PM asked for an update from
MNF-I on the current situation. DCG Brims explained that the
Coalition Forces (CF) and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) in the
area of Tal Afar have not yet launched decisive operations
and are taking care not to signal to the enemy that such
operations are about to commence until the last possible
moment. However, U.S. and Iraqi patrols are active in most
parts of the city and are engaged in shaping operations in
preparation for decisive operations. Their mission is to (1)
set the conditions for continued political engagement between
the local tribes, the insurgents, and the Iraqi Transitional
Government (ITG); (2) permit the entry and staging of
humanitarian aid in the city; (3) show the people of the city
that ISF and CF are there to protect them by expelling the
insurgents who have seized control; (4) assure that the
tribes who have agreed to cooperate with the ITG and CF are
doing so; and (5) prepare to engage the enemy in a decisive
way.


4. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) DCG Brims reported that one Iraqi
Army brigade and slightly less than one U.S. Army brigade are
currently operating in and directly around the city. There
are pockets of the enemy in various parts of the city, most
notably in the Surai district. Approximately 50 insurgents
have been killed or captured and one U.S. soldier was killed
today. We believe that the tribal sheiks are keeping their
word to us and are cooperating with CF and ISF. We have also
been in touch with the Iraqi Red Crescent and they are in the
process of moving humanitarian supplies into safe locations
within the city. Ambassador pointed out that just because
shaping operations are taking place does not mean decisive
operations are inevitable.

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THE IRAQI "PLAN"
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5. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) Ambassador asked the PM to describe
the Iraqi plan for post-decisive operations in the city.
Questions included: How will the police force be
reconstituted to avoid continued inter-tribal strife? What
are the plans for humanitarian aid, reconstruction,
governance, and compensation? The PM explained that after
his last discussion with the Ambassador on this, he had sent
a delegation to Tal Afar to investigate the nature of the
fighting and to determine whether a peaceful, political
solution was possible. Adnan Ali led this delegation. They
determined that the tribal leaders now say they are willing
to cooperate with the ITG and each other to rid the city of
terrorists. There is therefore the possibility that
inter-tribal conflicts in the city can be controlled
peacefully. However, the need for military action is still a
very real possibility.


6. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) Ambassador inquired whether the ITG
would like to cease shaping operations to pursue a political
option. The PM replied that he would prefer to follow
parallel paths of dialogue on the one hand and military
preparations on the other. In his view, the stronger the
military presence, the greater the incentive for the
insurgents to negotiate. One difficulty the ITG faces with
the tribes is that they will not agree to identify members
who are with the insurgents. It is a matter of dignity and
tradition to them not to betray their own. (NOTE: It also
seems that the tribal leaders are afraid of retribution if
they do. END NOTE.) However, tribal leaders have agreed to
identify insurgent strongholds to CF and ISF.

7. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) Returning to the Ambassador's
question about post-decisive operations plans, the Minister
of Interior reported that immediately following the operation
he is prepared to deploy Public Order Battalions and Police
Commando units into the city to restore and maintain order.
They will remain for approximately one month. In the
meantime, a new police force reflecting the diversity of the
city will be recruited and trained. Each tribal sheik has
agreed to nominate ten members to become police officers.
Ambassador pointed out that it is critical that a competent,
respected, and neutral police chief be appointed. The
Minister reported that his Deputy in charge of police will
travel to Tal Afar on September 6 to solidify plans.


8. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) With regard to compensation and
reconstruction, Adnan Ali pointed out that the ITG would be
looking to the CF for financial assistance. He indicated
that the tribes had agreed to cooperate in return for a
promise of reconstruction and compensation for damages
suffered, and now it is incumbent upon us to assist. Further
discussion revealed that the Iraqi effort to prepare for
humanitarian assistance is still weak. GEN Casey recommended
that these plans be solidified to include a timeline.
Current efforts to position humanitarian relief supplies in
the city should continue.

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CONCERN FOR NONCOMBATANTS
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9. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) The PM expressed great concern for
the welfare of the citizens of Tal Afar, and the Iraqi
participants spent much time debating among themselves
possible strategies to reduce the potential for civilian
casualties. National Security Advisor Rubaie pressed for a
plan that would offer an amnesty to Iraqi fighters but would
give no quarter to foreign fighters. He hoped that faced
with overwhelming ISF and CF military might, the Iraqi
insurgents would either surrender or turn on their foreign
compatriots. Another plan was to leave an exit for the
foreign fighters, squeeze them through it and then engage and
destroy them outside of the city. Eventually, most
participants seemed resigned to the fact that the foreign
fighters will stay and fight.


10. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) There was concern that the foreign
fighters would use women and children as human shields,
resulting in the death of many innocents. Adnan Ali reported
that most civilians in the Surai district have already
departed, and the tribal leaders are quietly convincing those
who still remain to leave. GEN Casey said he shared these
concerns and agreed with the assessment that the tribes have
already evacuated most civilians from Surai. He said he
believes that the insurgents, Iraqis and foreign fighters
alike, are digging in and preparing to stay and fight.

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CONCLUSION
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11. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) The PM concluded that we should
move forward to support the mission. The locals must
continue to engage in a political dialogue. At the same
time, military preparations must continue. The ISF and CF
must move forward to isolate Surai and "we will deal with the
reality of what happens," he said. If the insurgents stay
and fight, they must be defeated. It was agreed that
humanitarian preparations already underway would continue and
that a firmed up plan for post-decisive operations, to
include a timeline, would be formulated.

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COMMENT
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12. (S/REL GBR AUS IRAQ) The lack of a firm, articulable
plan for humanitarian relief, reconstruction, compensation,
and post-conflict governance continues to be troubling. END
COMMENT.
Satterfield