FALLUJAH/RAMADI: SUNNIS EXPRESS MEASURED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003677

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: FALLUJAH/RAMADI: SUNNIS EXPRESS MEASURED
SKEPTICISM TOWARD CONSTITUTION

Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR MICHAEL J. ADLER,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: In meetings with Fallujah Poloff and USMC
officers, Al Anbar Province Sunni Arabs have expressed
skepticism toward the draft constitution. However, community
leaders and ordinary residents continue to mobilize for the
upcoming referendum. They have largely stated their
intentions to study the text in more detail before reaching a
final decision on how to vote in the October 15 referendum.
Many remain hopeful that changes to the constitution will be
made in coming weeks. Religious leaders in Fallujah are
still urging residents to register (the deadline was extended
in the province through September 7). They also appear to
have decided to study the constitution in more detail before
communicating formal reactions. Anbar Sunnis, overall,
remain engaged in the national political process. There is
not yet a sense of automatic rejection of the constitution as
area leaders consider their next steps and overarching
political strategy. END SUMMARY.

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FALLUJANS: SKEPTICISM
MIXED WITH PRAGMATISM
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2. (C) Fallujah Poloff and Marine officers have met with
several city leaders to discuss local reactions to the
constitution. In an August 30, 2005, city council session,
Vice Chairman Qassem Mashkoor Noman Al-Esawi stressed that
the constitution needed "equilibrium; otherwise, there would
always be instability." Sunnis, he added, remained
principally concerned about federalism. He hoped all
outstanding issues could be resolved by October 15.
Security, he stressed, was directly tied to politics.


3. (C) Engineer Fawzi Mohammed, who acts as a principal
deputy of the city's reconstruction committee, stated that
whether Fallujans voted yes or no, it would be the "people's
decision." He noted that city leaders would be holding
educational seminars -- led by sheikhs, imams and lawyers --
to urge residents to register and help educate them regarding
the constitution.


4. (C) In a series of meetings, imams, city council and
business leaders have told poloff that voter registration
continues to go well, with hundreds of residents signing up
daily. They question the IECI's performance, capacity and
neutrality. Fallujah officials sought U.S. assistance in
pressing the case for same-day registration for Anbar
residents, noting that while large numbers had successfully
registered in Fallujah -- many Sunnis in other communities
have not.

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IMAMS: "NO RUSH TO JUDGMENT"
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5. (C) A leading city imam, Sheikh Abdul Sittar, told
Fallujah Poloff August 30 that Fallujah clerics had not yet
told people how to vote, stating "there is much in the
constitution we like, but also a few important
disagreements." He added that if the points of contention
could be worked out, imams would urge residents to vote yes;
if not, they would eventually exhort them to vote no.

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GOVERNOR STRESSES ROLE OF RELIGIOUS LEADERS
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6. (C) Provincial Governor Ma'moun indicated to Marine
officers that he had not yet read the constitution and was
unable to offer personal opinions about how it might be
received in the province. However, he added that the role of
religious leaders would be important in shaping Sunni views
at the local level.

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TRIBAL LEADERS: WE WILL
EDUCATE MEMBERS AND VOTE
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7. (C) During a September 3 meeting with six Fallujah-area
tribal leaders, Fallujah Poloff and Marine Foreign Area
Officer discussed local reactions to the constitution. The
sheikhs echoed that federalism remained the main sticking
point -- arguing that Iraq's natural resources should not
benefit just one part of the country (ie., north and south to
the exclusion of Anbar Sunnis in the west). One sheikh
acknowledged that the constitution was "a living document;
unlike the immutable Quran." All looked to Baghdad for
possible changes that would address continued Sunni concerns.
They said they would continue to help educate their tribal
members and encourage participation.

8. (C) Fallujah Poloff inquired about the extent to which
Sunni political engagement in coming months would affect
support for the insurgency. One tribal leader said that
"there would be fewer IEDs . . . if unity is achieved."
Tribal leaders also noted that intimidation tactics in
Fallujah would largely be ineffective in the face of
concerted efforts by imams and other city leaders who were
advocating participation.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) These initial reactions among Al-Anbar Sunni Arabs
reflect both skepticism and an apparent pragmatic mindset.
Local Sunni leaders continue to digest and study the contents
of the constitution and, so far, seem to have largely
reserved judgment. The debate at the grass-roots level, not
surprisingly, has focused more on operational issues
(additional registration centers, same-day registration, more
sites, etc.) and less on substantive arguments about the
draft text.
Satterfield