REP WOLF DISCUSSES FUTURE OF COALITION FORCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003644

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015
TAGS: PINS PREL MCAP MOPS PGOV IZ IR
SUBJECT: REP WOLF DISCUSSES FUTURE OF COALITION FORCE
PRESENCE WITH IRAQI OFFICIALS

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (a),(b) and
(d)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: On 28 August 2005, U.S. Representative
Frank Wolf (R-VA) met with several members of the Iraqi
Transitional Government (ITG),including President Jalal
Talabani and Prime Minister Ibrahim Al-Jafari. Noting
wavering U.S. public opinion over the continued military
presence in Iraq, Rep. Wolf queried the ITG members about the
consequences of a fixed date for withdrawal in the very
near-term. Although their predictions varied, Iraqi
officials were unanimous in their position that such a move
would be severely detrimental to the development of a secure,
stable, and democratic Iraq. END SUMMARY.

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WITHDRAWAL WOULD BE A 'DISASTER' - IRAN TO FILL THE GAP
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2. (C/NF) At a luncheon with the several high-ranking Iraqi
government officials and the U.S. Ambassador, Representative
Wolf asked about a near-term U.S. withdrawal from Iraq.
Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh Shaways responded that a
premature U.S. withdrawal would be a "disaster" and a
"victory for the forces of terrorism," urging that any
withdrawal be linked to the readiness of the Iraqi security
forces. Judge Wael Abdul Latif stated that such a move would
compromise the ability of the Iraqi state to govern, and that
the country would fracture along ethnic lines. Similarly,
Speaker of the National Assembly Hajim Al-Hasani predicted
that Iraq would become the biggest problem in the region, and
that civil war would likely ensue.


3. (C/NF) President Jalal Talabani stated that Iran would
step in to fill the vacuum in the wake of a U.S. pullout, and
that Iran's public support for the Iraqi political process
was largely rhetoric and not indicative of Iran's true
intentions. Iran fears, he said, that the example of a
liberal pluralistic society in Iraq would undermine the
foundations of their monolithic, autocratic system. The
President continued that Lebanese Hizbollah is openly
supporting other terrorist groups in Iraq. Reinforcing this
theme, Judge Latif implored the U.S. to "work behind the
scenes" to combat the assassination operations and activities
of militias that he claimed Iranian intelligence supports.
President of the Kurdistan Regional Government Nechirvan
Barzani stated that while Syria is the source of the majority
of terrorists, Iran has more state-sponsored operatives
within Iraq.

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TALABANI'S CRITICAL SUCCESS FACTORS
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4. (C/NF) As Representative Wolf pressed for the necessary
steps forward, President Talabani identified three critical
success factors. First, Iraq must develop a true
representative government that includes Sunnis. Second,
liberal democratic forces must be strengthened and developed
in anticipation of the next election. Third, the U.S. and
Iraq must develop a truly joint strategy for combating the
insurgency, as only in close cooperation can the
proliferation of terrorists and insurgents be arrested.
Underscoring President Talabani's point regarding the support
for liberal forces, Deputy Chairman of the Constitutional
Committee Dr. Adnan Al-Janabi emphasized that the U.S. must
reinforce liberal impulses in Syria and elsewhere in the
region, and not limit efforts to cultivate democracy to just
Iraq.

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JAFARI - IRAQ IS DEFENDING HUMANITY
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5. (C/NF) In a one-on-one meeting with ITG Prime Minister
Ibrahim Al-Jafari, Representative Wolf once again posed the
question of a fixed date for withdrawal. Jafari voiced worry
about the vacuum such a departure would leave, and insisted
that any timetable for redeployment of U.S. forces should be
based on conditions and not time. Al-Jafari placed the
responsibility for Iraq's current situation squarely on
Syria, claiming that Damascus seeks a resurgence of the
Baathist regime and that Saudi recruits to the Iraqi
insurgency are actively training in Syria. However, he stated
that there is no proof that Lebanese Hizbollah (and
presumably other Iranian-backed terrorist groups) are present
and active in Iraq.


6. (C/NF) Al-Jafari mused at length that the Iraqi
constitution is the product of a human journey toward
democracy and plurality, and stressed the need to protect not
only minorities but the ability for the majority -- i.e.,
Shia Muslims -- to live according to their beliefs. He
suggested that terrorist forces in Iraq and elsewhere
represent a unique moral turpitude, expounding in detail at
the exceptional depravity of their actions. (NOTE: Jafari
explicitly referred to 'Arab' terrorists. END NOTE.) The
United States, he said, is standing against this worldwide
phenomenon; and as such, Iraq's struggle is a struggle to
defend humanity.

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COMMENT - THE NEED TO DEMONSTRATE PROGRESS
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7. (C) The focus of the Congressman's questions sent an
important message to his senior Iraqi interlocutors: the USG
is prepared to continue to help the Iraqis through the
political transition to democracy, but the U.S. public
expects to see greater evidence of political progress toward
a situation enabling withdrawal of Coalition Forces. END
COMMENT.


8. (U) Representative Wolf did not have the opportunity to
clear this cable before departing post.
Khalilzad