SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR DELAY ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003442

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR DELAY ON
FEDERALISM UNTIL NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary: At an August 20 meeting with PolCouns,
two members of the Sunni constitution negotiating team argued
for a delay in a decision on Federalism until a National
Assembly can be elected under the new constitution.
Stressing that Sunnis want to participate in upcoming
elections, they complained that the Independent Election
Commission of Iraq (IECI) has yet to open all promised voter
registration centers (VRCs). The Sunni representatives also
complained of Sunni parties' lack of resources. While Sunni
Arabs will vote in national elections, these two local
political figures weren't sure whom the national Sunni Arab
leadership would turn out to be. They discounted Allawi but
said that former Sunni religious endowment leader Adnan
Dulaimi has some appeal. Our overall sense is that despite
the real security problems in Sunni Arab areas, we will see
more Sunni voters in the next elections than we saw in the
January 2005 election. It is far less clear whether they
will vote for the draft constitution in October or who would
gain their votes in the December 2005 election that is now
only four months away. End Summary.


2. (C/NF) Constitutional Committee member Dr. Hassib Arif
al-Obaidi (from Kirkuk) and Sheikh Anwar an Nada al-Lahibi of
the United Iraqi Council (from Mosul) told PolCouns that the
current Iraqi political situation is too fragile to permit
establishment of new regional entities inside a federal Iraq.
The Sunni representatives urged that the issue be kept out
of the new constitution and left for discussion by the next
National Assembly. Obaidi insisted that he would support a
decentralized government as well as Kurdish autonomy, but
asked "how can we expect people to make serious decisions in
the face of such constant threats?" Both men argued that in
the face of popular frustrations attached to both security
and infrastructure problems now, it is impossible to have
rational political debates about the future structure of a
federal system in Iraq.


3. (C/NF) Lahibi and Obeidi said that Sunnis want to
participate in upcoming national elections; they predicted a
strong turnout. However, Anwar urged that the IECI open more
of the promised voter registration centers in Sunni areas.
He claimed that in Al Anbar Province, only 9 of the initially
proposed 28 VRCs are currently open. Dr. Obaidi requested
Embassy help arranging a meeting between IECI and Sunni
leaders to discuss plans to decrease fraud and and increase
transparency during upcoming elections. (NOTE: Our
understanding is that the IECI has opened more voter
registration centers in Anbar. There is a need for more
Sunni Arab political leaders talking to the election
commission, and we scheduled such a meeting for August 23.)


4. (C/NF) Obaidi expressed concern over the lack of Sunni
party resources to fully participate in elections. They
warned that no Sunni political entity would be able to reach
Sunni voters throughout the country. PolCouns urged that
these two interlocutors think about how to join with other
Sunni Arab political forces to form a stronger coalition. He
reminded them of the success of the Shia List 169. PolOffs
suggested that any party that rejected violence could
approach IRI and NDI for support. They took the point and
noted that Ayed Allawi is trying to build such a coalition.
Obeidi, however, warned that Allawi would have his own
problems in Sunni areas; people would remember that Allawi
ordered the attacks in the Fall of 2004 against Samarra and
Fallujah. By contrast, they thought the nascent "Sunni
People's Conference" that held a well-attended meeting in
Baghdad in May under the sponsorship of the Sunni Waqf might
provide an umbrella under which Sunni Arab political leaders
could gather. Obeidi and Lahibi highlighted that former
Sunni Waqf leader Adnan Dulaimi would be an effective
spokesman in the eyes of many Sunni Arabs.


5. (C/NF) Comment: Obaidi and Anwar's plea for a delay in a
decision on Federalism and more resources for Sunni parties
tracks closely with conversations we held August 21 and 22
with other Sunni Arab negotiators. These points are often
joined by arguments for sharing Iraqi resources at the
national level and of the looming threat of Iranian
domination of Iraq. Their remarks about Sunni Arabs coming
out to vote also tracks with what we hear from other
contacts. However, none of our interlocutors so far will
hazard whether or not they will vote for the draft
constitution and few will venture a guess about who will draw
the most votes from Sunni Arab voters in December. End
Comment.

Khalilzad