Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BAGHDAD3436
2005-08-22 15:06:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR LEADERS

Tags:  PGOV PINS KDEM IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003436 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2050
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR LEADERS
DISCUSS CURRENT POLITICAL OBSTACDELAY ON FEDERALISMLES
UNTIL NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003436

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2050
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: SUNNI NEGOTIATORS STICK TO CALL FOR LEADERS
DISCUSS CURRENT POLITICAL OBSTACDELAY ON FEDERALISMLES
UNTIL NEW NATIONAL ASSEMBLY


Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) a
nd (d).


1. (C/NF) Summary: At an August 20 meeting with PolCouns,
two members of the Sunni constitution negotiating team argued
for a delay in a decision on Federalism until a National
Assembly can be elected under the new constitution.
Stressing that Sunnis want to participate in upcoming
elections, they complained that the Independent Election
Commission of Iraq (IECI) has yet to open all promised voter
registration centers (VRCs). Sunni leaders shared their
concerns with PolOffs regarding Federalism, voter
registration, and participation in the electoral process. The
Sunni representatives also complained of Sunni parties, lack
of resources. While Sunni Arabs will vote in national
elections, these two local political figures weren't sure
whom the national Sunni Arab leadership would turn out to be.
They discounted Allawi but said that former Sunni religious
endowment leader Adnan Dulaimi has some appeal. Our overall
sense is that despite the real security problems in Sunni
Arab areas, we will see more Sunni voters in the next
elections than we saw in the January 2005 election. It is
far less clear whether they will vote for the draft
constitution in October or who would gain their votes in the
December 2005 election that is now only four months away.
End Summary.


2. (C/NF) Constitutional Committee member Dr. Hassib Arif
al-Obaidi (from Kirkuk) and Sheikh Anwar a Nada al-Lahibi of
the United Iraqi Council (from Mosul) told PolCouns that the
current Iraqi political situation is too fragile to permit
establishment of new regional entities inside a federal Iraq.
The Sunni representatives urged that the issue be kept out
of the new constitution and left for discussion by the next
National Assembly. met PolOffs August 20 to explain Sunni
concerns with the Constitution status. First, they want to
delay any mention of Federalism in the new constitution and
to raise the issue in the next National Assembly. Dr. Obaidi
insisted that he would support a decentralized government as
well as offered a government based on the 1971 decree with a

decentralized government and recognized Kurdish autonomy, but
asked . Their argument: the security situation is still too
dangerous and fragile. &hHow can we expect people to make
serious decisions in the face of such constant threats?8
Both men argued that in the face of popular frustrations
attached to both security and infrastructure problems now; it
is impossible to have rational political debates about the
future structure of a federal system in Iraq.said Obaidi.


3. (C/NF) Second, Sheik Lahibi and Obeidi said that
confirmedSunnis want to participate in upcoming national
elections; they predicted a strong turnout. However, Anwar
urged that the To do so, he said, the IECI open more of the
promised voter registration centers voter registration
centersin Sunni areas. He claimed that in Al Anbar Province,
- only 9 of the initially proposed 28 VRCs are currently open
to date in Al Anbar Province. Dr. Obaidi requested Embassy
help arranging a meeting with thebetween IECI and Sunni
leaders to discuss plans to decrease corruption fraud and and
increase transparency during upcoming electionsthe busy
political season. (NOTE: Our understanding is that the IECI
has opened more voter registration centers in Anbar. There
is a need for more Sunni Arab political leaders talking to
the election commission, and we scheduled such a meeting for
August 23.)


4. (C/NF) Dr. Obaidi,s third concern was aObaidi expressed
concern over the lack of Sunni party financial resources to
fully participatepromote their cause in the elections. They
warned that no Sunni political entity would be able to reach
Sunni voters throughout the country. PolCouns urged that
these two interlocutors think about how to join with other
Sunni Arab political forces to form a stronger coalition. He
reminded them of the success of the Shia List 169. PolOffs
suggested that any party that rejected violence could
approach suggested the resources available to any political
party, includingIRI and NDI for support.funding. But this
requires their initiative and coordinated efforts to create a
moderate coalition that rejects violence.
They took the point and noted that Ayed Allawi is trying to
build such a coalition. Obeidi, however, warned that Allawi
would have his own problems in Sunni areas; people would
remember that Allawi ordered the attacks in the Fall of 2004
against Samarra and Fallujah. By contrast, they thought the
nascent "Sunni People's Conference" that held a well-attended
meeting in Baghdad in May under the sponsorship of the Sunni
Waqf might provide an umbrella under which Sunni Arab
political leaders could gather. Obeidi and Lahibi
highlighted that former Sunni Waqf leader Adnan Dulaimi would
be an effective spokesman in the eyes of many Sunni Arabs.
&The Kurds can print ten thousand posters easily. We
cannot.8

5. (C/NF) Comment: Obaidi and Anwar,s plea for a delay in a
decision on federalism and more resources for Sunni parties
tracks closely with conversations we held August 21 and 22
with other Sunni Arab negotiators.These Sunni concerns are
the same PolOff heard in meetings Aug 20 with a prominent
newspaper editor and an influential University of Baghdad
professor- as well as other Sunni leaders Aug 21 during a
meeting with Ambassador KhalilzadThese points are often
joined by arguments for sharing Iraqi resources at the
national level and of the looming threat of : delay
Federalism, share the Iraqi oil wealth equally, beware
Iranian domination inof Iraq. Their remarks about Sunni
Arabs coming out to vote also tracks with what we hear from
other contacts. However, none of our interlocutors so far
will hazard whether or not they will vote for the draft
constitution and few will venture a guess about who will draw
the most votes from Sunni Arab voters in December. End
Comment.



Khalilzad