KURDISTAN PRESIDENT FORGING CONSENSUS AMONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002980

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: KURDISTAN PRESIDENT FORGING CONSENSUS AMONG
SUNNIS; SAYS FEDERALISM MUST "JUSTLY DISTRIBUTE WEALTH AND
POWER"

REF: BAGHADAD 2780

Classified By: Charge d' Affaires David M. Satterfield for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Kurdistan-Iraq President Massoud Barzani
told Charge on July 14 that his regional government had
scored recent successes against insurgents in the north, but
felt that overall Iraqi security had witnessed only moderate
improvement over the past year. He said he was working to
produce a unified Sunni leadership, but noted some elements
of the community were working at cross-purposes with the
Kurds. Barzani's closest politburo confidante, Fadil Mirani,
sketched out Kurdish desires for "historic geographic"
federalism, and Barzani noted the Kurds and Shia would share
oil income with the Sunnis. Charge and NSC Senior Director
for Iraq stressed the importance of TAL provisos that natural
resources remain under the control of a central government in
Baghdad. Barzani and Mirani expected progress to unify the
two Kurdish administrations soon; Mirani said some Kurds were
opposing holding new regional elections in December. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Charge and visiting NSC Senior Director for Iraq
Meagan O'Sullivan called on Kurdistan-Iraq President Massoud
Barzani in Salah ad Din on July 14, and thanked him for the
critical role the Kurds continue to play in forging a new era
of peace in Iraq. (PolCouns, RC Kirkuk, and MNFI-I director
for policy also attended the meeting.) O'Sullivan said there
were many challenges still facing Iraq, we would continue to
look to the Kurds and Barzani in particular to help achieve
positive outcomes. Barzani said he was committed to
achieving a federal, pluralistic, democratic Iraq.
O'Sullivan asked Barzani to help keep pressure on the
political process to ensure compliance with the timeline for
the constitution, referendum, and elections outlined in the
Transitional Administrative Law (TAL). She noted that the
constitution need not address every difficult politiQl issue
and that some - such as the final status of Kirkuk - may best
be dealt with outside the constitution and through the
implementation of Article 58 in the TAL. Barzani said he
would do what he could to ensure the timelines were met and
stated that he would not support any proposal that would
jeopardize the deadlines. He noted that the resolution of
Kirkuk would take time and patience.

Ansar al-Sunna Cell Defeated in Irbil
--------------


3. (C) Barzani said that security in Kurdistan was
relatively good. He and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
Politiburo Executive Director Fadil Mirani (whom charge met
separately on July 14) both noted the KRG's recent success in
arresting a major cell of Ansar al-Sunna that was planning
operations in the north. Over 200 people had been arrested,
many with links to jihadist efforts in Afghanistan.

Promoting New Sunni Leadership?
--------------


4. (C) Overall in Iraq, Barzani felt that security was not
optimal, although there were some improvements since last
year. He said different groups of insurgents needed
different solutions. Some would only be eliminated through a
tough response, others could be brought in through economic
or social levers.


5. (C) He said he was planning to convene Sunni Arab
leaders with the idea of getting them to agree on new
leadership. He felt there was some chance the effort would
succeed, as it included members of the Iraqi Islamic Party,
National Dialog Council, the Muslim Scholars Association, the
Fatwa Association, and the Sunni Waqf, as well as tribes and
other leaders. (Comment: Our sense is that such a group of
Sunni Arabs would never allow Barzani much say in who their
leadership would be. End Comment.)

Kurds Want Historic Geographic Federalism . . .
-------------- --


6. (C) Barzani said it had been good to include Sunni Arabs
in the constitutional process, but there were still some who
were unwilling to acccept the concept of power sharing. He
said these elements might blackmail the Kurds; if that
happened, the Kurds would work to marginalize them. Barzani
said this was a very sensitive period, "either we stay
together or we separate," but noted that separation would not
be in anyone's interests. He said that the Kurds were
working to explain their view of federalism to the Sunni
Arabs, one that would be based on the "just distribution of
wealth and power." Mirani noted that the Kurds had agreed
that federalism would be a "historic geographic" federalism,
not based on administratively determined borders at the
provincial level. (Comment: As we noted in ref, this stance
on "geographic" federalism could be very problematic in terms
of securing Sunni Arab agreement. End Comment.)


. . . and Agree to "Share Oil" with the Sunnis
-------------- -


7. (C) Barzani said that some Sunnis were apprehensive that
oil income would be in the hands of Shia and Kurds. He noted
that "we must give them their share of oil revenues of
Kurdistan and the south."


8. (C) NSC Senior Director noted that the U.S. strongly
supported TAL provisions leaving the income from natural
resources in the hands of the central government. This had
reassured groups in regions that were resource-poor. Such a
system was also entirely consistent with the concept of
federalism. Charge agreed about the importance of central
government control of resources. He noted that the
international community only permits sovereign entities to
market their natural resources such as oil. Furthermore, any
other formula would frighten Sunnis who would feel they could
be frozen out of any revenue stream. The TAL formula removes
their fear and thus keeps them engaged in the national
political process, a critical priority for Iraq's stability.


Kurdish Unification
--------------


9. (C) Barzani and Mirani both noted progress on unifying
the Kurdish administrations of Irbil and Sulimaniya. Mirani
felt there might be an agreement on the cabinet before the
end of July. Barzani said he was working to diminish the
role of political parties in government.

Election Preparations
--------------


10. (C) Barzani told charge that he currently favored a
province-based electoral district. PUK and KDP politburos
were currently discussing this issue; some in each party
favored the retention of a single national electoral
district. He did not know what the final Kurdish position
would be, but indicated that he would support movement to a
provincial system. Barzani felt it unlikely that new parties
would emerge before December elections, they would not be
able to establish credibility with the electorate. New
parties would likely emerge after that, he predicted.


11. (C) Mirani said that Kurds were currently debating the
wisdom of conducting elections again in December. Many felt
that the regional government should just be able to keep the
same four year term of past assemblies, rather than adhere to
the "transitional" concept that the TAL envisioned for the
provincial and national governments.



12. (U) REO HILLAH, REO BASRAH, REO KIRKUK, REO MOSUL
minimize considered.
Satterfield