Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BAGHDAD2909
2005-07-11 10:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

KURDS' SHAWAYS AND SHIA PARLIAMENTARIAN DAOUD

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002909 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2025
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: KURDS' SHAWAYS AND SHIA PARLIAMENTARIAN DAOUD
AGREE AND DISAGREE ON CONSTITUTION ISSUES

Classified By: Charge d' Affaires David M. Satterfield for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002909

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/11/2025
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: KURDS' SHAWAYS AND SHIA PARLIAMENTARIAN DAOUD
AGREE AND DISAGREE ON CONSTITUTION ISSUES

Classified By: Charge d' Affaires David M. Satterfield for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In separate meetings with DPM Rosch Shaways
and TNA member Qassim Daoud on July 8, the Charge pressed
home USG concerns that the constitution might delineate
central and regional government revenue and ownership sharing
of the nation's natural resources. Charge explained that
depriving the central government of ownership and revenues of
the natural resources could jeopardize Iraq's commitments
with international financial institutions. Toeing the
Kurdish line, DPM Shaways was unresponsive, while Daoud
appeared poised to reconsider his support for joint ownership
and revenue sharing. Shaways and Daoud both fretted that
Sunni members would try to sabotage the committee
proceedings. Daoud also sought USG help on checking Kurdish
demands on federalism and Kirkuk. Daoud also predicted the
Shia List would not hold for the next elections and that
Allawi would get no more than ten seats. END SUMMARY.


2. (C/NF) Charge d'Affaires Satterfield addressed
constitutional issues in meetings with Deputy Prime Minister
and KDP member Rosch Shaways and Transitional National
Assembly constitution committee member Qassim Daoud July 8.

-------------- --------------
Warding off Possible Sunni Sabotage of the August 15 Deadline
-------------- --------------


3. (C/NF) Daoud told the Charge he is less optimistic about
meeting the 15 August deadline now with the additional Sunni
members on the committee, given their "unreasonable"
positions on federalism, Kirkuk, and the identity of Iraq.
The committee as a whole has had three meetings and will
divide the new Sunni members among the subcommittees on July

9. Daoud cautioned that the committee must continue working
towards the 15 August deadline--"a holy day"-- despite the
problems with Sunnis. He fears some Sunnis will attempt to
sabotage the process by withdrawing. Others, such as Iraqi
Islamic Party Ayed Samarai'e and National Dialogue Council's
Saleh al-Mutlak, will probably stay, according to Daoud.
(Note: Daoud said he is a long-time friend of Mutlak and can
use his personal ties to pressure him on key issues.) Daoud

related how he had highlighted to the Sunnis that there is no
steathily prepared draft constitution written by the US, UK,
or Israelis, a popular conspiracy theory.

--------------
Sunnis Clash on Arab Identity and Federalism
--------------


4. (C/NF) Sunni Arabs are insisting Iraq be defined as an
Arab nation, which Daoud claims is unfair to the Kurds and
other minorities. Daoud also said the Sunni members are
completely unrealistic about federalism and do not at all
accept its principles, preferring a strongly centralized
system. (Note: Daoud is a member of the federalism
subcommittee.) Daoud mentioned Ayatollah Sistani's
reservations about federalism stem from Sistani's concern
that small, autonomous Shia regions will be more susceptible
to Iranian interference in the south. Sistani reportedly
would prefer one single southern region in order to forge a
stronger area. Shaways, on the other hand, told the Charge
he favors a highly decentralized federal structure, in which
the "real power" in the country is at the regional or
governorate level. He warned that the Sunni Arabs already
were expressing reservations about federalism and there could
be big problems on this point. Shaways mentioned in passing
that the Kurds don't much care if there is a single Shia
region within a federal Iraq or several smaller regions.
(Comment: we will check to see if other Kurdish leaders are
as nonchalant about this question. End Comment.)

--------------
Charge Warns on Regions and Revenues
--------------


5. (C/NF) Shaways and Daoud separately told the Charge they
supported a "shared ownership and revenue arrangement" of
natural resources between the central and regional
governments. The Charge made clear that the USG and the
international community strongly believe that revenue and
ownership of Iraq's natural resources "belong to the Iraqi
nation". Putting a constitutional straight jacket over the
ownership of the resources and revenues would complicate
Iraq's future relations with the international financial
community. It would be preferable to have revenue-sharing
undertaken as part of a normal budget process. Shaways
listened to the Charge's comments but offered no substantive
response. Daoud, for his part, replied, "You have convinced
me." and said that he would press the matter with the rest of
the committee.

-------------- --------------
Constitution Committee Leaning Towards Parliamentary System
-------------- --------------


6. (C/NF) Shaways told the Charge he preferred a
parliamentary form of government with the parliament electing
the president and prime minister. He recommended that the
Presidency Council remain a three-member group but that it
have more authority than the TAL now provides them. Daoud
also said the committee is leaning towards a parliamentary
system with a strong prime minister and fewer powers for the
president than the current setup. Daoud believed Iraq's
diverse nature requires a diffuse system, because it provides
more positions for more factions. (Comment: Shaways'
preference is logical given the Kurds' minority status. End
Comment.)

--------------
Kirkuk: Sticky
--------------


7. (C/NF) Daoud asked the US to help push Kurds to be
reasonable about their "place in Iraq", Kirkuk, and
federalism. The Kurds are overstepping their bounds on the
KRG's authorities, positions in central government, and
geographic area, reaching into traditional Arab regions, such
as Ninewa province, he claimed. Daoud noted that during the
week of the Brussels Conference, when much of the Iraqi
leadership was out of Baghdad, Iraq had a Kurdish President
(Talabani),a Kurdish Prime Minister (acting PM Shaways),
Foreign Minister and Kurdish Army chief of Staff. The Charge
responded that we are pressing Kurds on their commitments to
Iraq and the process.


8. (C/NF) Daoud also noted Sistani's view on the Kurds and
Kirkuk. Daoud said Sistani had originally asked Allawi to
join the combined Shia list before the last elections so the
Shia could present a united front to more effectively limit
Kurdish demands. The Kurds are pressing for Kirkuk's
settlement ahead of the constitution and next elections,
complained Daoud. The Charge urged that TAL Article 58
language be the basis for the resolution.


9. (C) Shaways separately told the Charge he believed Shia
Arabs were not energized about Kirkuk. He thought they could
stay in Kirkuk after the city passes to KRG control if they
wanted. Shaways did not raise the importance of finalizing
Kirkuk's status immediately. Instead, he said the new
constitution should contain the Article 58 language verbatim.
Charge pressed Shaways on standing up the Kirkuk provincial
government by bringing in genuinely representative Turkman
and Arab leaders into the top Kirkuk leadership, along with
the Kurdish governor. It was important, the Charge
underlined, to let the Arabs choose their own representative.
Shaways did not argue the point and pledged he would talk to
KRG President Masood Barzani.

-------------- --------------
Daoud on Electoral System and Political Alliances for the
Next Elections
-------------- --------------


10. (C/NF) As he has in previous meetings, Daoud mentioned
Sistani's and his own preference for multiple district
elections rather than a single district. Daoud said the IECI
was pushing back, complaining there was not enough time.
Daoud believed pressure from Sistani might change their tune,
however. Daoud envisioned SCIRI going it alone in the next
elections, while Fadhilah, Da'wa-Tanzim, and some Sadrists
would form an Islamist bloc. Da'wa-Ja'fari party could be on
its own. Chalabi would probably align with Sadrists and
possibly even the Islamist bloc. Allawi would be a
non-player in the next elections, at most scoring ten seats,
opined Daoud. Allawi was pairing with small figures such as
Chederchi and Pachachi. Daoud claimed Allawi showed his true
colors as a man who does not like to lose his grip on power
after the last elections and has disappointed the people.



11. (C/NF) Comment: On some broad issues, such as Iraq's
identity and federalism as a principle, we sense much
Kurd-Shia agreement. That said, it is noteworthy that while
Shaways doubted there was much Shia concern about Kirkuk,
Qassim Daoud underlined that Kirkuk could be a sticking
point. Other Shia parliamentarians tell us the same thing.
Our conclusion is that either the Kurds are tone deaf or the
various negotiators have not yet really entered really
detailed discussions on Kirkuk and structure of government.
We are taking every opportunity to press home the message on
revenue and ownership-sharing of natural resources. Shaways,
not surprisingly, offered no comments, given the position
directly conflicts with the Kurds' own. We hope to meet with
Masud Barzani directly in the next week to deliver the same
message. Daoud appears to have been convinced and could
exert some leverage on members of the committee, but we are
raising this issue now with political leaders on all sides.
Few seem to have thought much about the different angles of
the issue yet, but our position is now understood by many of
the constitution drafters. End Comment


12. (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO KIRKUK,
minimize considered.
Satterfield