TNA PETITION PROTESTS JAFARI REQUEST FOR MNF-I

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002620

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/20/2025
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: TNA PETITION PROTESTS JAFARI REQUEST FOR MNF-I
EXTENSION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford.
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary. A bloc of 83 TNA legislators
presented a petition June 19 protesting the Jafari
government's call for an extension of the MNF-I
mandate. Several Sadrist promoting the petition
argued that a timeline for withdrawal would reduce
the legitimacy of the insurgency. Many of the
petition signatories, however, appeared to be
protesting that the TNA was not consulted in the
decision, not the MNF-I extension itself. End
Summary.


2. (C) Leading Sadrist representative Falah Shanshal
announced a petition protesting the extension of the
MNF-I mandate at the June 19 TNA session. He pointed
out that with 83 signatories and only 130 members of
the TNA present at that day's session, the petition
represented a bloc with commanding legislative
authority. Our subsequent conversations with TNA
members revealed that many signatories were protesting
the Jafari government's decision-making process, not
the decision itself. The majority of the signatories
appear to be following the first of the following two
motivations:

-- OBJECTING TO A VIOLATION OF THE TAL: Many of the
signatories to the petition appear to have been
protesting the TNA's exclusion from the decision-
making process, not the decision itself. They pointed
to TAL Article 39 (A),which states that the
"international treaties and agreements" must pass from
the council of ministers to the presidency council
before being ratified by the TNA. (Comment: Embassy
legal counsel has concluded that the call for an
extension of a UNSCR mandate, as made by FM Zebari,
was legal. TAL Article 39 does not cover a request
for the extension of the UNSCR mandate. End Comment)

-- CALLING FOR A TIMELINE: Some 26 Sadrists who most
likely backed the petition appear to have been making
a larger political statement. Shanshal told Poloff
that he believed the absence of a withdrawal timeline
spreads fears that the MNF-I presence would continue
indefinitely. He said these fears were feeding
support for the insurgency. Shanshal also said he
believed a pressing timeline would motivate the U.S.
to train Iraqi forces more urgently. He said he was
pushing for a phased withdrawal as Iraqi forces are
trained, not an immediate pullout. Poloff told
Shanshal that a timeline for MNF-I withdrawal would
actually motivate the insurgency, not demoralize it.
Shanshal responded that he heard press reports that
several U.S. congressmen shared his position.

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Comment
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3. (C) This challenge to the MNF-I presence is
significant but less alarming than it appears. Many
of the signatories to the petition probably support
the MNF-I extension but oppose that the TNA was not
consulted. Those who support legislation for a
timeline appear to still be a minority in the TNA.
Shia Political Council Member Ali Yoshua, himself a
signatory to the petition, urged Poloff not to over-
interpret the document. He said he and others had
signed the document to send a warning to Jafari, not
the USG.


4. (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO
KIRKUK, minimize considered.


Satterfield