SUNNI ARAB CONSTITUTION COMMITTEE OUTREACH HITS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002456

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KISL IZ
SUBJECT: SUNNI ARAB CONSTITUTION COMMITTEE OUTREACH HITS A
SNAG OVER NUMBERS


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires David M. Satterfield for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite promising signs earlier this week,
negotiations over expanding the Constitution Drafting
Committee deadlocked on June 9 over the number of Sunni Arabs
who should be added. Some Sunni Arabs are demanding 25
additional representatives of their community on the
55-member committee while Shia and Kurdish leaders say they
will allow no more than 15. The Shia want to preserve their
majority on the committee and the Kurds do not want the Sunni
Arabs to outnumber them. Even if the numbers argument were
resolved, further landmines remain: some Shia and Kurdish
committee members say they want to vet the nominees for
Ba'athist ties and make them publicly denounce violence. All
parties want this dispute resolved quickly and say they are
at least open to USG mediation. A strategy for such
mediation is laid out at the end of this cable. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) Negotiations over Sunni Arab inclusion in Constitution
Drafting committee hit a snag on June 9 over the question of
how many Sunni Arabs should be added. Sunni Waqf leader
Adnan al-Dulaymi announced publicly on June 8 that he
believed there should be 25 Sunni Arabs added to the body.
President Talabani also indicated PUK support for 25
additional Sunni Arabs in a June 8 meeting with the Charge.
That partial consensus fell through June 9 when KDP and Shia
leaders both rejected the number as too high. The PUK may
also have retrenched. Sunni Arab leaders are sticking to
their call for twenty-five additional representatives.
Dulaymi, in a conversation with Poloff on June 9, shouted
over the phone, "No compromise!"

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THE CONFLICTING RATIONALES
--------------


3. (C) Poloff's conversations with negotiators on all sides
of this dispute reveal the following set of conflicting
rationales:

-- SHIA RATIONALE: Shia leaders wants to maintain the same 51
percent majority on the Constitutional Committee that they
hold in the TNA and, they say, in the country. They
currently hold 28 seats on the 55-member committee. (NOTE:
They can count on independent Shia Islamist Sami al-Askari
siding with them on most issues, so some might say they hold
29 seats. END NOTE)

-- KURDISH RATIONALE: Kurdish activists, particularly from
the KDP, believe they outnumber Sunni Arabs in Iraq and
should outnumber them on the committee. The Kurdistan
Alliance List holds 15 seats on the committee (NOTE: They can
count on independent Shia Communist Hamid Musa siding with
them on most issues, so some might say they hold 16 seats.
END NOTE)

-- SUNNI ARAB RATIONALE: Sunni Arabs promoting the
appointment of 25 representatives, in addition to the two
Sunni Arabs already on the committee, say they would be
accepting less than their share. Many of them say they
represent over 40 percent of the population, which would
entitle them to 32 seats on an 80-member body. Instead they
are accepting 27 seats, which is only 34 percent of the
seats. Some have more moderate ambitions but have rejected
the previously publicized idea of adding 13 members because
they believe the number is being forced on them.

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FURTHER COMPLICATIONS POSSIBLE
--------------


4. (C) Even if the numbers dispute were resolved, other
obstacles to Sunni Arab inclusion may lie on the horizon.
All key committee leaders have told us that they accept the
notion that added Sunni representatives would act as equal
members on the committee. Senior politicians have told us
they accept the principle of consensus, not voting, as the
means of decision-making on the Committee. They also agree
that Sunni Arab representatives have to be chosen by Sunni
leaders. Hamudi and others say to emboffs they want a
vetting process to insure that they are clean of Ba'athist
ties. Here they cite the same law that regulates who may
serve as a member of the Transitional National Assembly.
This vetting process could proceed without incident, but it
could easily lead to personal disputes.


5. (C) Chaldo-Assyrian committee member Yunadam Kanna told
Poloff June 9 that he thinks it might be appropriate to make
all Sunni Arab inductees to the committee publicly foreswear
violence. Kanna also warned that he would sooner have the
constitutional committee choose its Sunni Arabs additions
itself rather than accept nominees that are likely to
obstruct the process. TNA Deputy Speaker and leading KDP
member Arif Taifur argued to Poloff that the Sunni demand for
25 seats is deliberately excessive and represents an early
effort to obstruct the process.

--------------
READY FOR U.S. PRESSURE
--------------


6. (C) All parties to the dispute want this dispute resolved
quickly, within days. Faced with a dispute that may be
beyond the authorities of Adnan al-Janabi's low-level Sunni
outreach committee, leaders from all sides have been talking
and gathering intermittently but without progress so far.
Representatives of all sides to this dispute have said that
U.S. pressure might help in brokering a solution. Even Sunni
Waqf leader Adnan al-Dulaymi told Poloff he saw value in such
intervention.

--------------
COMMENT: GETTING TO "YES"
--------------


7. (C) Allowing this dispute to fester would endanger efforts
to meet the August 15 deadline and spread doubt about the
legitimacy of the constitution drafting process. Even if
these leaders resolve the dispute over representation, they
still have major constitutional debates ahead of them. In
short, this dispute could cost time, spread rancor, and bring
us no closer to a draft constitution.


8. (C) Compromise appears possible based on the addition to
the Constitutional Committee of some 15 additional Sunni
Arabs. KDP leader Arif Taifur, committed to 13, told Poloff
after a lengthy conversation that he might consider going to
15 as a stretch. SCIRI leader and Constitution Committee
Chairman Hamudi begrudgingly made the same concession in a
separate conversation. We have heard from Vice President Abd
al-Mehdi that Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party leaders are willing
to settle for 15-20 added members. Sunni Arab outreach
leader Adnan al-Janabi previously told the DCM that he
thought 15 additions would be a reasonable number. Adnan
Dulaymi, when Poloff sounded him out, is going to be an
obstacle, as will his allies on the National Dialogue
Council, but if Janabi can be prevailed upon, they are likely
to settle as well.


9. (C) Embassy is engaging with all parties to press for a
rapid resolution based on inclusion of an additional 15 Sunni
members, with no "loyalty" pledge.


10. (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO KIRKUK,
minimize considered.
Jeffrey