CONVERSATION WITH NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002455

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR IZ
SUBJECT: CONVERSATION WITH NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR
MUAFFAQ AL-RUBAIE

Classified By: Political-Military Counselor Ronald E. Neumann
for reason 1.4 (b)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The ITG is disorganized and ineffective
according to Rubaie. He characterized the government as in
crisis with the Kurds provoked especially by the absence of
any mention of federalism in the Prime Ministers State of the
Union message. Additionally, Talabani is angry about the
responsibilities of Finance Minister Allawi, which have
included subjects he and Barham Salih wanted in the Ministry
of Planning with Salih. Rubaie also doubts that the Prime
Minister understands the political nature of the insurgency.
Therefore his political strategy for dealing with it is
inadequate. Rubaie may have failed to cement his personal
relationship with Ja'afari and that could be underlying his
analysis but he is clearly much less happy with the Ja'afari
government than he was a month ago. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) A month ago Rubaie was full of optimism for the new
government. Now he is pessimistic. In a meeting with
PolMilCons Neumann June 8, Rubaie characterized Ja'afari as
disorganized and particularly condemned his lack of any
approach to building institutions, something Rubaie is keen
on. He said the lack of meetings of the Ministerial Council
for National Security (MCNS) is simply because the Prime
Minister does not understand its value or who needs to be
involved in national security issues. Among the cabinet
committees recently composed is one on defense and security
(unlike the MCNS the cabinet committees do not involve the
coalition or principal allies). However the cabinet security
committee did not include the Chief of Intelligence or the
Foreign Minister. Rubaie caustically asked how the Foreign
Minister could accurately represent policy if he was not
involved in it when security was so fundamental to relations
with the neighbors. Rubaie also condemned Ja'afari for not
listening, that he gives lengthy explanations, is difficult
to talk to and does not respond to argument.


3. (C) Rubaie characterized the relations with the Kurds as a
crisis (we have reported this in more detail septels). He
said both Talabani and Barzani were furious that Rubaie's
State of the Union message had no mention of federalism.
Additionally, Talabani is angry that Finance Minister Allawi
rather than Planning Minister Barham Salih has the lead for
planning for Brussels. Rubaie knew about Talabani's meeting
on the same day with Abdul Aziz Hakim to figure out how to
deal with Ja'afari.


4. (C) Ja'afari said the Prime Minister is making no use of
the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) director.
Contrary to what Chalabi said last week, Rubaie said that
INIS Director Sharwani is making frequent attempts to be in
touch with the Prime Minister and to offer him briefings.
However the Prime Minister does not respond. Rubaie said
that he is in regular touch with Sharwani who is very
frustrated. Rubaie went on to say that none of the Deputy
Prime Ministers or members of the Presidency Council receive
any regular flow of information. Rubaie has offered to
provide a weekly intelligence briefing to each of the Deputy
Prime Ministers and is now making the same offer to the two
Vice Presidents and President Talabani. Rubaie said that he
has regular conversations with a SCIRI senior advisor and
Iraqi Vice President Adil Abdel-Mahdi who is frustrated at
the incoherence of the government. (COMMENT: As an
alternative candidate for Prime Minister Abdel-Mahdi is not
quite a disinterested observer. END COMMENT) Rubaie
questioned whether Ja'afari really understands the nature of
the insurgency. He quoted Ja'afari and a separate
conversation with Minister of State for National Security
Al-Anzi. Each one of them apparently said that given a free
hand they could clean up the insurgency in two or three
months. Rubaie explained that what they meant was that the
insurgency was based solely on die-hard Ba'athists and
criminals who would give up or run away if faced with
sufficient force. Rubaie does not accept this
characterization of the insurgency. He thinks it is far more
complex and more political. The Jihadists won't give up and
there is an element within the insurgency that sincerely
believes it is fighting to rid the country of a foreign
occupier. Rubaie said that without the proper understanding
of the nature of the insurgency it is extremely difficult or
impossible for Ja'afari to build an adequate political
strategy to deal with it.


5. (C) COMMENT: It is possible that Rubaie has failed to get
some position or policy he wants adopted and that his
analysis is affected with sourness as a result. However it
is also true that Rubaie has an abiding and sometimes
unrealistic desire to build institutions and go beyond
personal politics. He is therefore all the more frustrated
that Ja'afari is uninterested in building systems and is
constructing instead a government centralized completely on
himself with chaotic staffing procedures. END COMMENT.
Jeffrey