PARAGUAY: OVIEDO SUPPORTERS TAKE OVER ASUNCION

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASUNCION 001384

SIPDIS

STATE PASS TO USAID LAC/AA
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD BARBARA MOORE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR KJUS PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: OVIEDO SUPPORTERS TAKE OVER ASUNCION
PLAZA

REF: ASUNCION 1173

Classified By: PolOff Mark A. Stamilio, reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) Summary: On 10/31, hundreds of supporters of
imprisoned former general Lino Oviedo took up residence in a
plaza in front of the Supreme Court building, in a well
organized demonstration in support of Oviedo's petition for
release from prison. The demonstration has been peaceful so
far, but has the potential to spark violence. End Summary.


2. (U) Since his return to Paraguay from self-imposed exile
in June 2004, Oviedo is serving a ten-year sentence for his
role in a 1996 coup attempt. He faces additional charges
related to the March 1999 assassination of Vice President
Luis Maria Argana and the subsequent deaths of several
student protesters. He is being held at the Vinas Cue
military prison. His lawyers challenge his conviction and
sentence, which were imposed by a military tribunal, and
demand his release.


3. (U) The demonstration in front of the Supreme Court is
well organized. Organizers are providing food, drinks,
plastic tarps for shelter, and portable toilets for the
demonstrators. The plaza is full of pro-Oviedo banners and
T-shirts, and a loudspeaker system plays folk songs with
lyrics about Oviedo. Most of the demonstrators appear to be
poor farm laborers. A small number of demonstrators are
staging a hunger strike.


4. (SBU) Although the demonstrations have been peaceful so
far, neighbors are displeased by the congregation. Some
politicians are calling on the city to evict the
demonstrators from the plaza. There is a heavy police
presence. The farm laborers appear to be bored, which could
lead them either to grow weary and return to their homes in
the countryside, or to create mischief that will force the
city government to evict them. If the latter occurs, sparks
could fly.


5. (C) According to two DAO sources, the demonstrators hope
to provoke the government to act, thereby sparking an
incident, and plan to remain in the plaza "as long as
necessary." One source alleged that the demonstrators have a
cache of some 600 weapons at their disposal. We have no
independent verification of the allegation.


6. (SBU) Comment: Oviedo and his supporters are keen to gain
his release so he can reenter the political game in Paraguay
and commence a bid for the 2008 Presidential race. Duarte
and his supporters are seeking votes in the Paraguayan Senate
to support a motion to hold a Constituent Assembly that would
consider allowing an incumbent President to run for
reelection. The votes of the five Senators from Oviedo's
UNACE party are key. The sticking point is what to do with
Oviedo. Oviedo wants charges dropped so he can run for
President; it is unlikely Duarte's supporters will want to
risk facing Oviedo in a political contest given Oviedo's
renown as a political campaigner. As Oviedo seeks to
increase pressure on the government for a deal, there is some
concern his supporters could provoke a violent confrontation
with the government that would produce a backlash. The
government is sensitive to this risk. It has stepped up the
security presence around the demonstration and throughout the
city. However, neither the President nor the Mayor are keen
at this point to appeal to judicial authorities for
authorization to displace the protesters.
JOHNSON