PARAGUAY: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION HURDLES HIGH BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 001248

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: PRESIDENTIAL REELECTION HURDLES HIGH BUT
NOT INSURMOUNTABLE

REF: ASUNCION 1202

Classified By: POLOFF Sterling Tilley, reason 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (U) SUMMARY: For several months, there has been
speculation that supporters of President Duarte would seek
modifications to the Constitution that would allow Duarte to
run for reelection. Amending the Constitution would require
that Article 229 of the Constitution be changed. The process
for making this change requires several steps including
initiating the request, winning Congressional support,
electing representatives to a Constituent Assembly and
holding a Constitutional Convention. Prospects for amending
the Constitution to allow the President to run for reelection
are presently long but hardly insurmountable.

--------------
Changing the Constitution
--------------


2. (U) According to Paraguay's Constitution, the Constitution
can only be changed after 10 years of its promulgation, which
was in 1992. There are three ways a change in the
Constitution process can begin: 1) the President may make a
proposal for change; 2) 1/4 of the members of either Chamber
of Congress can make a request; or 3) 30,000 voters with a
signed petition can make the request. Then, the request must
be approved by a vote of 2/3 of the total members of each
Chamber of Congress. At that point, preparations can begin
to create a Constituent Assembly for the purpose of holding a
Constitutional Convention.

--------------
The Constituent Assembly
--------------


3. (U) The election of members of the Constituent Assembly
must be held within 180 days after the Congress approves a
motion to amend the Constitution. The various parties would
submit lists of names of candidates for the Constituent
Assembly and the general population would then vote for those
individuals of their choice. The number of members cannot
exceed the number of congresspersons from both Chambers of
Congress (45 Senate and 80 Deputies). The members of the
assembly must include Paraguayans from all economic and
social strata, including politicians, professionals, farmers,
business owners, etc. All of those elected must meet the
criteria for being a member of Congress, which require simply
the person be at least 25 years of age and a native
Paraguayan.


4. (U) A Constituent Assembly would actually assume
responsibility for writing the law that would change Article
229, which outlines the requirements and duties of the
presidency. (NOTE: In the case of reelection, it would only
have to take out the phrase prohibiting reelection and write
a sentence allowing reelection. End Note.) In order for the
measure to pass, 2/3 of the Constituent Assembly must vote in
favor of the amendment. The Constitution stipulates that no
amendments can be made in the process within 6 months of an
election.

--------------
Prospects for a Constitutional Convention
--------------


5. (U) Amending the Constitution to allow for reelection will
be difficult but not impossible to achieve. An August poll
revealed that 50 percent of the population is against
modifying the Constitution to allow for reelection, while 32
percent support the reform and another 18 percent have no
opinion. But winning popular support is not a direct
factor. Rather, winning the support of 2/3 of the members of
each house of Congress will prove the key. Presently, the
governing Colorados enjoy a thin majority in the House of
Deputies; they just lost their thin majority in the Senate.
This places them short of the votes they need to approve
convening of a Constituent Assembly; gaining the support of
opposition parties will prove pivotal.


6. (C) Blas Llano, the leader of the opposition Authentic
Radical Liberal Party (PLRA),has said that the Liberals
would not support amending the Constitution without promises
allowing for 1) a second round in a presidential election
between the two top vote getters if no one acquires a
majority (NOTE: a key reform, since Duarte won only 37
percent of the vote, possibly owing his election to the lack
of a second round.); and, 2) for a provision that stipulates
expatriates abroad can vote. Senate Liberal Party Leader
Armando Espinola, however, has argued against amending the
constitution even if the Colorados made these concessions. He
does not believe these provisions favor the Liberal Party's
prospects for winning elections; he is more focused on
building an electoral coalition. (reftel).


7. (C) The Colorado Party is competing with the Liberals in
actively courting the Union of Ethical Citizens Party
(UNACE),led by imprisoned coup plotter Lino Oviedo.
Practically all members of UNACE were formerly members of the
Colorado Party before breaking off to create their own party
in 2002. A number of UNACE reps have returned to the
Colorado Party in recent months. Thinking strategically,
Espinola recently told the Ambassador that he was concerned a
decision by UNACE to align itself with the Colorados would
give the Colorados the votes they need in the Senate to amend
the constitution to allow for reelection of the president.
Of course, it is hard to believe the Colorados would grant
Oviedo his ultimate objective which is the right to
participate in the 2008 presidential elections. The
opposition Beloved Fatherland Party (PPQ) has consistently
come out against changing the constitution to allow for
reelection. (reftel).


8. (C) COMMENT: Duarte's bid to amend the Constitution hinges
on gaining the support of 2/3 of the representatives in each
house of Congress. Currently, the numbers are not there.
But the game is far from over. The Colorados have a long and
proven track record of negotiating what they want from the
opposition in exchange for other economic or political
benefits. In the past, the Liberals have proven they can be
bought off. UNACE remains focused on gaining the freedom of
its imprisoned leader Lino Oviedo. If acceptable deals could
be struck, the Colorados could acquire the votes. For now,
however, Duarte is focused on consolidating power within the
Colorado Party as he seeks election as Colorado Party
President for internal party elections tentatively scheduled
for February. It is unlikely a bid to change the
Constitution to allow for reelection as president of the
country will receive much consideration until that race is
safely behind him. As party chief, however, Duarte would be
well placed to select his successor as Colorado candidate
should reelection not be possible. End Comment.
KEANE