PARAGUAY: LIBERAL PARTY LEADER DISCUSSES ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 001202

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: LIBERAL PARTY LEADER DISCUSSES ELECTORAL
PLANS

Classified By: James P. Merz. Reason 1.4 (b),(d).


1. (U) Summary. In a 9/19 meeting with the Ambassador,
Sen. Armando Espinola, the Senate leader for the Liberal
Party, Paraguay,s leading opposition party, discussed plans
for dealing with party dissidents in Congress and seeking an
alliance with other political parties. He bemoaned the
ruling Colorado Party,s historical advantage in winning
elections based on patronage and a wider claim to resources.
He affirmed the Liberals remained opposed to amending the
Constitution to allow the President to pursue a second term
in office. The Ambassador conveyed concern that the
government not adopt spending policies in a bid to build
popular support in the run up to next year's elections. End
Summary.


2. (U) In his meeting with the Ambassador, Sen. Espinola,
the leader of the Liberal Party in the Senate, focused
primarily on his Party's efforts to improve its prospects to
compete with the Colorados in future elections, including
next year's municipal elections and 2008 Presidential
elections. He stressed the advantages that accrue to the
Colorados after being in power for almost sixty years.
First, they have access to resources, both public and
private, with which no other party can compete. Second, they
benefit from a party machinery that relies on party leaders
spread throughout the country politicking on practically a
full-time basis. Third, they use patronage liberally to
shore up and secure support. Espinola complained that
Liberals suffer "discrimination" in that even decisions over
matters as seemingly apolitical as jobs for teachers often go
to Colorados on the basis of their party affiliation.


3. (U) Espinola soberly admitted it was unlikely the
Liberal Party alone could rally sufficient support to defeat
the Colorados in any elections in the near future. As a
result, he was keen for the Liberals to forge an alliance
with other opposition parties to challenge the Colorados in
the November 2006 municipal elections and the 2008
presidential election. He lamented that the Free Fatherland
Party (PPQ) remained insistent on expanding its own political
base and reluctant to building alliances with other
opposition parties. However, he had not given up on PPQ. He
regarded forming an alliance with the Union of Ethical
Citizens (UNACE),the Party of imprisoned coup-plotter Lino
Oviedo, as key.


4. (U) The Colorado Party is competing with the Liberals in
actively courting UNACE. Practically all members of UNACE
were formerly members of the Colorado Party before breaking
off to create their own party in 2002. A number of UNACE
reps have returned to the Colorado Party in recent months.
Many Liberals share with UNACE a genuine affinity for Oviedo.
Thinking strategically, Espinola is afraid a decision by
UNACE to align itself with the Colorados would give the
Colorados the votes they need in the Senate to amend the
constitution to allow for reelection of the president.
Espinola recently voiced support for granting Oviedo
political amnesty for his current conviction for involvement
in a 1996 coup attempt; he also recently visited Oviedo in
jail. Espinola said that he would not countenance any legal
or political deal that would give Oviedo the right to run in
upcoming elections out of fear over prospects he could well
win. Separately, the Colorados have reportedly offered to
have Oviedo placed under house arrest. Colorados supporting
President Duarte would also be hard pressed to allow Oviedo
to participate in elections. For his part, Oviedo remains
insistent on being cleared of all charges presumably so he
can take a run at political office.


5. (U) In the past, the Liberals have signaled a
willingness to consider amending Paraguay's Constitution to
enable standing President Duarte to run for reelection in
exchange for provisions 1) for a second round between the two
top vote getters in elections should the winner not gain a
majority and 2) to allow Paraguayans living abroad to vote in
elections. Espinola maintained the Liberals were presently
opposed to this deal. He was skeptical about prospects for
the opposition to win in the second round after attacking
each other in the first round. While conventional wisdom has
always held the Liberals have more voters living abroad, he
was convinced Colorado voters abroad are more organized and
likely to vote in elections. The Ambassador similarly
suspected few Paraguayans living overseas would take the time
and effort to register and vote in elections back home.


6. (C) Espinola remained in favor of adopting a formal
decision to kick out of the Liberal Party 3 Senators and 6
Deputies who recently formed a coalition with the governing
Colorado Party. This is a difficult decision for the party
to take as these individuals garnered 9 percent of the vote
in recent internal elections. However, Espinola considered
the position of these Congressmen demoralizing on the
party,s rank and file. He believed kicking these
Congressmen out of the party would facilitate party efforts
to consolidate behind one strong candidate to oppose the
Colorados. He did not believe Liberal Party President Blas
Llano was interested in running as the Liberal Party
candidate identifying Senators Carlos Mateo Barmelli and Tito
Saguier or Deputy Efrain Alegre as possible candidates. He
took on board the Ambassador's expression of concern about
the present government taking on too much debt in adopting
spending policies in the run-up to national elections.
Nevertheless, he voiced his own desire that a Liberal backed
government undertake a sweeping social investment program
that would involve improving education and social services
along with infrastucture and may incur taking on some
considerable debt.


7. (U) Comment. Earlier in the year when the Liberals
still controlled the Congress as part of a coalition of
opposition parties, Espinola told Polcouns the Liberals were
not interested in an electoral coalition, conveying
confidence his party could challenge the Colorados on its
own. Clearly his perspective has changed in the wake of the
Colorados' successful bid to build a majority coalition in
the Congress. While polls hardly demonstrate sweeping
support for President Duarte, he has effectively consolidated
his power and benefits from the non-emergence of an
opposition figure. It remains too early to comment on
prospects for building a coalition of opposition parties in
preparation for elections over a year in the offing. End
Comment.
KEANE