TURKISH MFA PREPARING CYPRUS PROPOSAL FOR PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 007631

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR - A/S FRIED AND DAS BRYZA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU CY EU UN
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA PREPARING CYPRUS PROPOSAL FOR PRIME
TIME

REF: A. ANKARA 7096


B. STATE 225096

Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson, Reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: Turkish MFA Deputy U/S Apakan previewed
with Ambassador December 27 the current MFA draft aimed at
opening Turkish ports and airports to Greek Cypriots as part
of a negotiable package that would make such a move feasible
here. MFA is working this at the behest of FM Gul, who
realizes the risk of an EU accession negotiation train wreck
in 2006, absent movement on Cyprus. Ambassador urged the
Turks to be realistic about what can be achieved, narrow
their focus, frame the proposal specifically as a process
aimed at helping Turkey fulfill its EU obligations, and
recruit EU allies by better addressing EU concerns in other
areas. This MFA draft is a further refinement of FM Gul's
May 30 proposal for mutual opening of Turkish and Turkish
Cypriot ports and airports. End summary.


2. (C) Apakan followed up the MFA's early December discussion
on Cyprus with the embassy and Turkish Ambassador Logoglu's
meeting with EUR A/S Fried (reftels). He emphasized that FM
Gul realizes Turkey cannot "sit idle" on Cyprus lest it risk
an EU accession negotiation train wreck, and previewed with
Ambassador MFA's current working draft proposal on how to
move forward on Cyprus. The goal, Apakan explained, is to
open ports and airports both in Turkey and in the "TRNC" in
order to fulfill Turkey's obligations to the EU on the Ankara
Protocol extension, as well as the EU's "obligation" to end
the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots. The paradigm has
changed, Apakan insisted; this is about pragmatic steps, not
about recognition. Turkey is looking for ideas, Apakan
stressed. The government realizes the focus must be on the
opening of Turkish ports, which is why this is item number
one in the draft. The paper itself is not intended as a
"take it or leave it" proposition, he added; they are open to
suggestions and changes. The draft, which Apakan showed us,
tracks closely with what we have reported earlier. Main
points include:

--opening of Turkish sea and airports to Greek Cypriot
vessels and planes;

--opening of Turkish Cypriot ports, with monitoring by the
IMO and others;

--opening of Turkish Cypriot airport, with monitoring by the
ICAO and others;

--extension of Customs Union benefits to Turkish Cypriots;

--inclusion of Turkish Cypriots in international sporting and
cultural events;

--all the above with no prejudice to parties' existing
political positions (i.e., no recognition implied);

--UNSYG to arrange a March 2006 meeting of all parties (Greek
and Turkish Cypriots, Turks, Greeks, with observers from EU
Commission and "interested parties", i.e., U.S. and UK) to
work out the arrangements;

--agreement on a comprehensive settlement by the end of 2006;
and

--UNSYG-arranged mechanism to monitor implemention.


3. (C) Ambassador referred to A/S Fried's meeting with the
Turkish ambassador, but said Washington had not yet provided
guidance. Noting that he had no instructions from
Washington, Ambassador offered the following personal
comments. First, he saw three sets of elements at work: (1)
The EU's requirements on Cyprus and how to work with them in
a way that does not box Turkey in with respect to its
accession negotiations; (2) the issue of a long term
settlement and how best to position the parties for progress
there; and (3) how Cyprus issues relate to other items in the
EU accession process.


4. (C) For any Turkish effort on Cyprus to succeed, it needed
to be realistic. A proposal that the Greek Cypriots could
shred might leave Turkey worse off than it is now. The kind
of proposal most likely to achieve results, Ambassador
suggested, would be the shortest, simplest, and most narrowly
focused. Turkey should carefully consier the need for
extraneous or secondary elements, such as participation at
sporting events or even the issue of a long term settlement,


which may not be critical for resolving the Customs
Union/ports/airports problem. In addition, Ambassador noted
that:

--To the extent the GOT feels obligated to refer to the UN,
it might simply refer to the UN's role and obligations in
connection with the Annan plan. Ambassador was skeptical the
EU would agree to a UN role in mediating fulfillment of
Customs Union obligations, but acknowledged this is up to the
EU.

--If Turkey wants this to work, it must attract other EU
allies, in addition to the UK, which often finds itself a
lone voice, by making the package as attractive and
reasonable as possible.

--Turkey may also want to consider calling its effort a
process, rather than a plan, and one aimed more clearly at
helping Turkey fulfill its obligations to the EU.

--The Cyprus issue is one of the toughest, if not the
toughest, that Turkey will encounter during its accession
negotiations. One way to gain allies is to move ahead as
quickly as possible on other, perhaps easier issues. The
terrible headlines of the past few weeks almost ensure,
Ambassador stressed, that other EU members make no argument
to the Greek Cypriots; they may cause EU members to give the
Turkish proposal the thumbs down. The effect on the EU of
the Pamuk trial and other freedom of expression cases is, he
added, devastating. Turkey must show its EU friends that it
is headed in the right direction and frame its case so that
Cyprus can be managed in a practical way.


5. (C) Apakan responded that the intent of the paper is to
launch a process and engender broad discussion, such as
occurred with all parties prior to the 2004 referendum. The
MFA will show the draft paper to UK Ambassador Westmacott
and hopes to work closely with both the UK Embassy and us as
this process moves forward. Apakan said it is still a work
in progress; the Ambassador's comments were helpful, and
Turkey would welcome further U.S. thinking. FM Gul will
speak to EU Enlargement Commissioner Olli Rehn and, in an
effort to gather a group of like-minded countries, Turkey is
in the process of contacting other EU partners to let them
know that they are putting meat on the bones of Gul's May 30
proposal on Cyprus. Apakan was less optimistic on the notion
of carving off the EU requirement of opening ports and
airports from the UN settlement process. The EU, he said,
"has no acquis" on Cyprus settlement and is uncomfortable
dealing with Cyprus issues in the absence of the UN.


6. (C) While the EU has never fulfilled its commitment to end
Turkish Cypriot isolation, Apakan acknowledged that the
situation is a new one that called for new tools. If the EU
considers Cyprus as an integral whole, it should not isolate
the north. Ambassador committed to following up when he sees
Ambassadorial colleagues in Washington, and provide further
feedback.


7. (C) Comment: Although Turkish officials and public
opinion always come back to the EU's failure to fulfill its
2004 promise to end Turkish Cypriot isolation, FM Gul and the
MFA appear seized with the urgency of producing something
positive and forward leaning on Cyprus that would allow
Turkey to fulfill its obligations to the EU and avoid an
accession negotiation train wreck, while giving them the
domestic cover needed on northern Cyprus. It is not clear
that Apakan really heard Ambassador's messages, but he had
the DDG for Cyprus in the room, with whom we will follow up
in the coming weeks.
WILSON