JANDARMA INVOLVEMENT IN BOMBING ROCKS TURKEY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006772

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM TU
SUBJECT: JANDARMA INVOLVEMENT IN BOMBING ROCKS TURKEY


(U) Classified by CDA Nancy McEldowney, E.O. 12958, reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Turkey has been rocked by alleged jandarma
involvement in a November 9 bombing in the town of Semdinli,
in the ethnically-Kurdish southeastern province of Hakkari.
After the blast, bystanders caught and severely beat three
suspects. Police released two of the three, including a
jandarma sergeant, and detained a jandarma informant. The
event has sparked weeklong, at times violent, demonstrations
in Hakkari. Multiple and very public investigations are
underway and there is widespread public agreement that there
is some jandarma involvement. The question is whether PM
Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) government can
force the jandarma to cooperate with the investigation; much
of the public and media, inured to the coverups of the 1990s,
are skeptical the investigation will be allowed to get to the
bottom of the affair. All high-level figures, from the PM to
the President to the head of the Turkish General Staff (TGS),
have publicly stated the investigation should go as far as
needed to find those responsible. End Summary.

Two of Three Bombing Suspects Released
--------------


2. (U) On November 9, one person was killed in a bomb blast
in a Semdinli bookstore. Bystanders caught and severely beat
three suspects before police arrived and took custody of
them. The suspects included a PKK informant for jandarma
intelligence and a jandarma sergeant. As a crowd gathered
around the suspects' car, a prosecutor arrived to
investigate; so did Hakkari parliamentarian Esat Canan, who
happened to be in town at the time, and with whom we spoke on
November 16.


3. (U) In the car, the prosecutor and Canan found weapons
and documents allegedly linked to jandarma, including a
supposed "hit list" of suspected PKK sympathizers, including
the bookstore owner. The crowd around the car grew,
allegedly became violent, and jandarma opened fire, killing
one person. Police released two of the three bombing
suspects, keeping only the informant. Another jandarma
sergeant who fired on the crowd was also kept in custody.


4. (U) Local anger over the bombing incident and the release
of the two suspects sparked demonstrations in Hakkari
province, some of them violent, for a week after November 9.
Five people died in disturbances in the town of Yuksekova on
November 15 disturbances spread to the provincial capital n
November 16.

Investigation, Parliamentary Response -- and Criticism
-------------- --------------


5. (U) PM Erdogan has repeatedly vowed a full investigation
of the incident; Turkey's political establishment has
publicly and unanimously backed his call in unprecedented
fashion. Prosecutors opened their investigation the same day
as the incident. Several parliamentary delegations have
visited Hakkari province, and parliament is set to debate the
affair next week. Still, much of the public and media,
particularly in the southeast, remains deeply skeptical that
an investigation will get to the bottom of the affair.


6. (C) Erdogan and his ruling AKP government's response has
drawn criticism. Well-connected Hurriyet columnist Sukru
Kucuksahin told us privately that he blamed PM Erdogan for
not speaking out more forcefully against the civil unrest the
incident has generated in the southeast. He worried about
nationalistic reactions inside Erodgan's AKP, from the
military, and from the Turkish public if unrest continues.


7. (C) Aside from statements, Erdogan has, to date, done
little publicly in response to the incident. He has
continued foreign travel uninterrupted, and, at least until
his return to Ankara November 15, appeared more focused on
disputes regarding headscarves than on events in Semdinli.
Interior Minister Aksu, despite having the jandarma under his
jurisdiction, has been virtually invisible. A November 16
press report claimed several AKP parliamentarians, including
both nationalists and pious MPs, criticized AKP leadership
for the civil unrest, a lack of focus on the incident, and

ANKARA 00006772 002 OF 003


lack of information from Aksu.


8. (C) When we met with an exhausted parliamentarian Canan,
a Kurdish member of the main opposition Republican People's
Party (CHP),he was privately deeply pessimistic about the
investigation. He is critical of the decision to release the
other two bombing suspects and fears that Semdinli's
relatively junior prosecutor will be left alone to face down
the district's powerful jandarma; some media have made the
same criticism. Canan predicts AKP will ask its
parliamentary commission to investigate other events in
addition to Semdinli, potentially watering down and delaying
the results.

No Dispute That Jandarma Involved
--------------


9. (C) Turkey's paramilitary jandarma, under the command of
a land forces general, is organizationally part of the
Interior Ministry. In a deeply nationalistic country where
military forces enjoy the highest prestige of any
institution, almost no one -- including the military -- is
disputing some level of jandarma involvement in the bombing.
Many see the Semdinli bombing as an act of revenge for a
November 2 bombing outside local jandarma headquarters.


10. (C) Unlike past governments, PM Erdogan's pro-Islam AKP
has no affection for the secular military, no ties to it, and
no reason to squelch the investigation. Even the main
opposition CHP, which delights in playing the nationalist
card, has not tried to point the finger away from jandarma
involvement. The lingering question mark is whether the AKP
government can force the jandarma to cooperate with the
investigation. A leading columnist told us that jandarma
commander General Turkeri told him he had not yet spoken with
Minister Aksu, his ostensible boss, about the incident, and
had no intention of doing so. The columnist speculated that
Aksu was too intimidated to raise the issue with "his"
general.

Military Reaction Muted, Deferential to Judiciary
-------------- --------------


11. (SBU) PM Erdogan declared on November 12 that he had
consulted with TGS Chief Ozkok and President Sezer, who
agreed that the incident should be fully investigated. The
military's public reaction so far has been muted, cautious
and deferential to the judicial process, but has generated
some controversy.


12. (U) TGS Chief General Ozkok told the press on November
11, "I will neither accuse nor protect my personnel." The
media criticized land forces commander General Buyukanit for
his public statement that he knows the jandarma sergeant
allegedly involved in the bombing and believes him to be a
good soldier, although Buyukanit added that the investigation
will determine whether the sergeant is guilty or not.


13. (U) Jandarma commander General Turkeri has come under
the most fire, including from PM Erdogan, for his November 11
statement that appeared to minimize the affair as only a
"local incident." Much of Turkey's conspiracy-minded public
believes the incident is the work of a vast "deep state"
network including the military, intelligence officials,
bureaucrats, judges and prosecutors, and they see Turkeri's
statement as an attempted coverup. However, even Turkeri
called for developments to be left to the judiciary.

Comment: Much to Gain, Much to Lose
--------------


14. (C) The political consequences of the Semdinli incident
are only beginning to play out. The incident brings together
some of Turkey's most sensitive and important issues: the
heavily-Kurdish southeast, the PKK, and the GOT policies
toward them; civil/military relations; and the AKP
government's ability and willingness to work for rule of law.
This is an opportunity for the GOT to show determination to
use the rule of law expeditiously to get to the bottom of an
ugly incident reminiscent of the 1990s. They have much to
gain if they succeed, and much to lose if they fail -- in
terms of credibility with their own party base; with the

ANKARA 00006772 003 OF 003


public in the southeast, highly skeptical of anything coming
from Ankara; with the military; with the EU.


15. (C) If the investigation goes high and deep into the
jandarma, the military's deferential attitude may change,
sparking outright confrontation between the military and the
AKP government. At this point, we see no indication of this
scenario. More likely, nationalist criticism of the AKP
government's handling of the incident could stiffen,
including inside AKP itself. Continuing civil unrest in the
southeast spawned by the incident will increase pressure on
Erdogan and AKP to react strongly -- but an overreaction will
further alienate the southeast's already-restive Kurds, AKP's
own Kurdish MPs, and the EU.
MCELDOWNEY