ENGAGING TURKEY ON ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006768

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2015
TAGS: PREL GG ZJ RS TU
SUBJECT: ENGAGING TURKEY ON ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA


Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b and d).

Summary
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1. (C) Senior Advisor for Eurasia Steven Mann discussed the
conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia during November 8-9
meetings at the Turkish Foreign Ministry. He encouraged
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul to declare Turkey's support for
Georgia's diplomatic initiative for South Ossetia. In a
follow up meeting, MFA DG Halil Akinci expressed misgivings
about the Georgian plan but agreed it could be a start.
Akinci described Turkish worries about Russia's creeping
annexation of Abkhazia and complained that the Georgians are
impeding Turkish ties to Abkhazia and blocking direct Turkish
sea-borne trade with the region. Mann informed him of an
agreement reached among the "western" Friends to call a
meeting of the Friends of the Secretary General for Georgia
in New York to discuss the way ahead. End Summary.

Georgian Plan a Start
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2, (C) In a November 8 discussion with FM Abdullah Gul on
Eurasian conflicts, Ambassador Mann said the U.S. strongly
supports Georgia's newly disclosed initiative for South
Ossetia and urged Turkey to declare its support as well.
Mann noted we are pressing Russia to cooperate with us on
Georgia's initiative. Gul said the Georgian Prime Minister
had visited Ankara recently and Turkey was counseling the
Georgians not to provoke Russia.


3. (C) In follow up discussions on November 9, MFA Director
General Halil Akinci described the Georgian plan as "OK, but
with fatal flaws." He asserted that the creation of a Free
Trade Zone will legalize contraband, the establishment of a
Georgian passport agency in South Ossetia in 2006 will never
be accepted by the Ossetians, and the Joint Commission on the
Crimes of 1991-92 will not work since practically everyone on
each side is somehow implicated in crimes during the
conflict. The timing of the events foreseen in the plan is
also flawed, he stated. Still, he said, "we should support
any step that helps." He predicted Russian agreement with
the Georgian plan since the Russians know it will fail. Mann
pushed back, saying that while much of the Georgian plan is
aspirational, Georgia is now on the right path and needs
encouragement. Akinci admitted the plan could be a start if
pressure could be maintained on the Georgians, who have a
large credibility problem in Turkey.

Abkhazia: Georgians Blocking Turks
--------------


4. (C) Turning to Abkhazia, Akinci detailed Turkish
contacts with the Abkhazian diaspora and attempts to set up a
meeting on confidence building, with the idea of seeing where
the daily lives of the Abkhaz people could be improved. The
speaker of the Abkhaz "parliament" recently visited Turkey
and "not all Abkhazians are in love with Russia," Akinci
asserted. However, the Georgians are hampering Turkish
efforts to be a helpful counter to Russian influence. The
Georgian embargo is only directed at Turkey, not Russia; a
Turkish cargo vessel was intercepted off the coast of
Abkhazia in July. This serves to strengthen Abkhazian
dependence on Russia, contrary to Georgia's interest,
according to Akinci.


5. (C) Mann agreed that, of all the frozen conflicts,
Abkhazia seems the most difficult. Russia does not appear
serious about reaching a settlement and is getting a "free
ride" in the UN Friends of the Secretary General for Georgia.
Mann said the western Friends had agreed the day before in
Berlin that the German coordinator of the Friends would ask
U/SYG Guehenno to invite the Friends (without the Georgians
and Abkhazians) to come to New York to discuss prospects for
a settlement. In that meeting, Mann said, the U.S. will be
clear and forceful about the desire of four of the Friends to
reach an equitable agreement, in contrast with the Russian
stance. The Abkhazians do not want Russian dominance but
have little room for maneuver. Meanwhile, "creeping
annexation" is occurring, with 90 percent of Abkhazians now
possessing a Russian passport and increasing Russian
penetration of the economy. Mann said we need to push Russia
and the Abkhazians to take small steps, including more
cross-border trade.


6. (C) Akinci agreed, saying the Abkhazians would like
closer ties with Turkey, including unimpeded trade relations.
Akinci stressed the need for confidence-building measures
that would have immediate results, especially in the free
movement of goods. The Georgians deny any embargo, but even
humanitarian aid must go through Po'ti at the cost of delays
and bribes. This is causing Abkhazians to gradually leave
the area while the rest fall under Russian dominance, Akinci
asserted. The Georgians claim they do not want this, yet do
not behave accordingly out of fear of Russian retaliation,
Akinci opined. Akinci asserted there is off-shore petroleum
in the Black Sea near the Georgia-Russian border and urged
Mann to get the Russian geological surveys of the area. The
Russians will need to be convinced they will enjoy special
privileges in Abkhazia and will share in the region's oil
wealth. Even without oil, however, Abkhazia is a rich asset
for Russia and we could not expect Russia to give it up
without a fight. Meanwhile, closer ties with Turkey would
give the Abkhazians an alternative to Russia's looming
presence.


7. (C) Mann responded that we need a recalculation of the
negotiations, with the goal to prevent Russia's "creeping
annexation" of Abkhazia and concluded the way ahead will be
clearer following the upcoming meeting of the Friends in New
York. Akinci complained that Turkey is not informed about
what UN SRSYG Heidi Tagliavini is doing. Avni Karslioglu,
who will soon replace Akinci at the MFA as Akinci moves into
his next assignment as Turkish ambassador in New Delhi, said
that with the Abkhaz themselves being harassed in Abkhazia,
the Georgians should understand it is in their interest to
cooperate with Turkey, but they are emboldened by their
recent weapons acquisitions and are "sticking to their old
tactics and their oriental thinking." "Peasant thinking,"
added Akinci.


8. (U) Ambassador Mann cleared this cable.
MCELDOWNEY