SO FAR, SO GOOD ON US-FUNDED SOCIAL PROJECT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006583

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR PLANTIER

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: EAID SOCI TU
SUBJECT: SO FAR, SO GOOD ON US-FUNDED SOCIAL PROJECT



1. (U) Summary: A status check on the U.S.-funded Social
Risk Mitigation Project (SRMP) found that the World Bank-led
project is exceeding its goals of boosting school enrollment
and vaccination rates. Reaching nearly two million people,
the program is an example of the Bank's success in helping
the Turkish government improve living conditions among
Turkey's large poor population. The Bank is considering
continuing the program beyond its 2006 expiration, perhaps
with European Union support. End summary.

--------------
Program's Goals Being Exceeded
--------------


2. (U) In February 2005, the US Ambassador signed a $9
million ESF grant agreement with the World Bank to be used
to help fund the Bank's Social Risk Mitigation Project
(SRMP),which supports and helps fund Conditional Cash
Transfer (CCT) payments from the Turkish Social Solidarity
Fund (SSF) to poor families. Through this $360 million
program, $260 million of which is funded by a World Bank
loan, poor families receive monthly payments on the
condition that they take their children (ages 0-6) for
regular health checks, including the standard early-
childhood vaccination series. In addition, the SSF provides
payments to poor families (mostly mothers),so long as they
keep their children in school. As of October 2005, the
World Bank had disbursed $146.6 million of the planned $260
million. The $9 million US grant portion was fully
disbursed by the Bank to the SSF in September.


3. (SBU) Checking in on the project with John Innes, who
oversees social sector projects in the World Bank's Ankara
office, we were told that 1.9 million Turks have so far
benefited from the CCT program, a whopping 46% above the
original target. The program reaches the poorest 9% of the
Turkish population versus an initial target of 6%. Innes
noted that the original financial eligibility cut-off was
set too low but that the Bank is pleased to have reached a
larger population of low-income people. He said that the
program will continue with or without government financing
and that the Bank hopes to see the number of beneficiaries
increase to 2 million.


4. (U) In a separate meeting, the SSF, the Turkish
government agency that implements the project, concurred
that the impacts of the CCT include an increase in school
attendance rates, visits to health clinics, and the
registration of births and marriages. In the longer term,
the SSF expects to see an increase in schooling and literacy
rates (especially among girls),an increase in secondary
school attendance rates, and a decrease in childhood
mortality rates.

--------------
Evaluation and Criticism
--------------


5. (SBU) The World Bank competitively awarded a contract to
the International Food Policy Research Institution (IFPRI)
to perform a qualitative and a quantitative evaluation of
the CCT program. While the final report is not expected
until late 2006, preliminary results are already coming in
from the qualitative part of the assessment. According to
Innes, IFPRI found the CCT program to have a positive impact
on family consumption and on women. They found no
indication of discrimination on ethnic or religious grounds
in the implementation of the program.


6. (SBU) Innes said that some local kaymakams (sub-
provincial governors) had criticized the CCT program for its
alleged impact on fertility decisions. They claim that the
program is undermining family planning and giving women an
incentive to have more children in order to get more money.
Innes felt that there is an ethnic overtone to these
criticisms, in that the comments may reflect attitudes
toward the mostly Kurdish, low-income population that
benefits from the program. Innes countered this criticism,
noting that the most important variable in family size is
girls' education, especially secondary education. The
higher a woman's education level is, the fewer children she
is likely to have.

--------------
Other Key Components to the SRMP
--------------


7. (U) Another key component of the SRMP is the Local
Initiatives (LI) program, which gives 0% interest loans to
promote self-employment among low-income groups. As of
October 2005, the Bank had already committed $100 million to
the program, and 5156 projects have been approved. The
goals of the LI projects include income generation,
employability training, temporary employment, and the
establishment and improvement of social services and
infrastructure. The emphasis is on women, women's
employment, rural non-farm income development, and youth
inclusion. There is anecdotal evidence that the LI are
meeting their goals of creating employment-generating
opportunities for lower income families and are particularly
well-received by the local communities.


8. (U) As a tie-in to the CCT education program, LI also
includes a project called "My Beautiful School." As the
Ministry of National Education does not rehabilitate
schools, this program allocates approximately $9 million for
the restoration of 780 schools. The SSF, in conjunction
with the provincial and sub-provincial directorates of
National Education, selected the schools to be
rehabilitated. The Bank estimates that one million primary
and secondary school students will benefit from these
upgrades.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) Broadening access to health and education will be
the key to Turkey closing the gap in living standards with
the EU. Though final results of the evaluation will provide
fuller information and analysis, initial indications are
that the SRMP project has made a difference in improving
school enrollment and health indicators for low-income
Turks. Though the project is scheduled to exhaust its
current World Bank financing package in 2006, the EU and the
European Investment Bank are interested in providing
additional financing and the project is likely to continue.
A recent Economist editorial praised this kind of
conditional cash transfer project in Latin America, and we
believe this project has been equally successful in Turkey.

McEldowney