Avian Influenza Situation Update in Turkey

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E.O. 12958:N/A
TAGS: ETRD EAGR KPAO TBIO AMED TU
SUBJECT: Avian Influenza Situation Update in Turkey

Ref: (A) Ankara 5119
(B) Ankara 6105
(C) Ankara 6138
(D) Ankara 6232
(E) Ankara 6291
(F) Ankara 6430

Sensitive but unclassified. Not for Internet Distribution.


1. Summary. The Government of Turkey (GOT) plans to lift
the quarantine restrictions in the AI affected zone if new
lab results determine that there is no sign of AI in the 7
kilometer radius outside the quarantine zone near Balikesir.
The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed reports in the press
that 153 chickens died in Inegol, Bursa over the weekend.
Initial reports indicate an outbreak of Newcastle disease,
although test results are not expected back until after the
local holidays. End summary.





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The Quarantine Restrictions May Soon Be lifted
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2. (U) According to Turkish law, the quarantine
restrictions in the AI affected area near Balikesir can be
lifted if there are no new confirmed AI incidents in the
area of the outbreak for 21 days following the outbreak.
Since the outbreak was reported on October 7, the GOT could
have technically lifted the quarantine restrictions from the
3 kilometer radius around the infected farm on October 28.


3. (U) However, the GOT decided to take more precautions
before lifting the restrictions. The government sent blood
samples from poultry in the 7 kilometer observation area
outside of the quarantine zone to a lab to be tested for AI.
Results are pending. If the results are negative,
indicating that there is no AI present in that region, then
the quarantine restrictions will be removed. GOT continues
to monitor for other AI occurrences in the country.


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A New Outbreak?
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4. (SBU) The Ministry of Agriculture confirmed reports in
the press that 153 chickens died in Inegol, Bursa over the
weekend and that 750 additional birds were killed as
precautionary measures. Inegol is in the same region as the
first outbreak near Balikesir. The Turkish press indicated
that this was not a case of Avian Influenza but rather one
of Newcastle Disease, which is closely related to AI and
also quite serious. The Ministry of Agriculture sent
samples to the lab and expects to receive results next week.
The lab results will determine whether the deaths of these
birds can be attributed to AI, Newcastle Disease or
something else.

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Government Assistance
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5. (SBU) The Ministry of Social Security announced lat week
that social security debts of all of the affected poultry
processors will be postponed for six months.


6. (SBU) It was also announced that, for a certain time
period, the GOT is issuing unemployment pensions from the
national unemployment fund to those whose jobs were affected
by the AI outbreak in order to keep employment at current
levels. This indicates that the government believes that
this is only a temporary disruption and that the jobs should
still be there after a few months.

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Poultry Industry
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7. (SBU) According to the Turkish Poultry Association,
immediately following the outbreak, poultry sales were down
to ten percent but have now risen back to 65 percent of
normal levels. This industry expects that the government's
decision to lift the quarantine will help to further boost
poultry sales in the coming weeks. However, the industry is
still cautious since it is still the bird migratory season
and the Hatay region may be vulnerable to another outbreak.
Given the drastic decrease in poultry production in Turkey,
the feed industry will also be affected. However, it is
hard to predict just how much at this point. The growth of
the poultry sector will take a long time to get back to
normal, pre-AI, levels.

MCELDOWNEY