TURKISH MFA ON AZERBAIJAN ELECTIONS: QUIET

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 006446

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/SE AND EUR/CACEN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM TU AZ
SUBJECT: TURKISH MFA ON AZERBAIJAN ELECTIONS: QUIET
PRESSURE

REF: A. BAKU 1618

B. SIEBENTRITT/POLASCHIK E-MAILS OCT 25

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b,
d).

Summary
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1. (C) Turkey's MFA says it has approached the GOAJ at all
levels to express its desire for a free, fair, and
transparent elections on November 6, but prefers not to do so
publicly. The GOT expects Aliyev to win comfortably even
without cheating. Turkey is sending a sizable contingent of
official and private election observers, and is ready to
assist with providing ink for finger inking if this becomes
necessary. End Summary.

Quiet Turkish Diplomacy
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2. (C) MFA Department Head for South Caucasus Suleyman
Gokce told Poloff October 25 that Turkey has encouraged the
Azerbaijan government "at every level" to ensure a free, fair
and transparent elections process on November 6. During a
recent meeting in Istanbul, Turkish FM Gul raised Turkey's
interest in a credible elections process with his Azeri
counterpart, according to Gokce. In addition, Prime Minister
Erdogan is scheduled to telephone President Aliyev in the
next couple of days to express Turkey's hopes for a good
elections process. Former Turkish President Suleyman Demirel
is also expected to call Aliyev on the same subject.
Meanwhile, Gokce reported, the Turkish embassy in Baku is
maintaining contact with opposition figures and opposition
personality Ali Kerimli recently gave a series of talks in
Ankara.


3. (C) Gokce said the GOT believes Aliyev will win
reelection by a comfortable margin even without cheating.
Ankara is watching the situation carefully but expects no
instability in Azerbaijan around the elections at this time.
We asked why the GOT has made no recent public statements
concerning the need for free, fair, and transparent elections
in Azerbaijan. Gokce responded that Turkey believes quiet
pressure at the leadership level is more effective; public
pressure risks embarrassing the Aliyev government with
potentially counter-productive results. Gokce appreciated
our providing copies of U.S. statement on Azerbaijan at the
OSCE as well as A/S Fried's October 20 speech at a Baku
university.

Turkish Assistance -- Observers and Ink
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4. (U) Turkey has contributed 50 short term and two long
term monitors to the ODIHR elections observation mission.
Observers from the Turkish Grand National Assembly,
parliamentary offices and NGOs will also take part, according
to the MFA.


5. (SBU) Gokce had also heard that the GOAJ had approved
the use of finger inking for the elections. Gokce said
Turkey had long urged the GOAJ (again, privately) to do this
and had identified sources of ink in Turkey. He said Turkey
is eager to help with provision of ink on short notice if
necessary.

Comment - No "Color Revolution" Please
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6. (C) Turkey has developed strong commercial and political
ties with Azerbaijan. It is clearly hoping for a credible
elections process in Azerbaijan, but one that leaves Aliyev
firmly in power.
MCELDOWNEY