Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05ANKARA6337
2005-10-20 12:37:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

CENTER-RIGHT ANAP: A TURKISH BEE RISES FROM THE

Tags:  PGOV PINR PINS PREL TU POLITICAL PARTIES 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006337 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PREL TU POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT ANAP: A TURKISH BEE RISES FROM THE
ASHES

REF: ANKARA 4497

Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b, d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 006337

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINR PINS PREL TU POLITICAL PARTIES
SUBJECT: CENTER-RIGHT ANAP: A TURKISH BEE RISES FROM THE
ASHES

REF: ANKARA 4497

Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b, d).


1. (C) Summary. Over the past several months, more than 20
Turkish MPs have defected to the ostensibly center-right,
liberal, and democratic Motherland Party (ANAP),giving ANAP
the right to form its own group in the Turkish Grand National
Assembly (TGNA). As an official parliamentary group, ANAP,
whose party symbol is a bumblebee, will receive speaking time
on the floor, members on the TGNA,s committees, a larger
state financial subsidy, and other benefits. For now, the
ANAP group will not affect governing AKP,s dominance in the
TGNA. ANAP faces considerable obstacles to re-emerging as a
force in Turkish politics. The party,s current ideology is
unclear, its membership diverse, it is hindered by a legacy
of political corruption, and many question the political
skill of current party leader Erkan Mumcu. But if ANAP can
get its act together, it will be plus for the Turkish
political process. End Summary.


2. (C) Under official Turkish parliamentary rules, a party
with 20 or more MPs is able to form a party group. ANAP
surmounted that hurdle on October 13 when Huseyin Ozcan
(Mersin MP; formerly CHP) and Goksal Kucukali (Istanbul MP;
formerly AKP) became the twentieth and twenty-first MPs to
join ANAP. A twenty-second MP, Hasan Ozyer (Mugla MP;
formerly AKP) announced he would join the party on October

19. Official "group" status allows ANAP to receive speaking
time on the floor of the assembly, members on TGNA
committees, a larger financial subsidy from the State, and
other benefits. ANAP,s new status raises the number of
official party groups to three: the other two party groups
are the governing and Islam-influenced Justice and
Development Party (AKP) with 355 MPs and the main opposition
center-left Republican People,s Party (CHP) with 154 MPs.
AKP MP and TGNA Interior Committee Chair Akbulut told us he
expects the only effect of the new parliamentary group will
be more extended debate, now that the ANAP group also has the
right to speak.

--------------
ANAP,S MIXED LEGACY

--------------


3. (C) Turgut Ozal founded ANAP in 1983. The party won the
general election later that year with 45.1 percent of the
vote and ANAP formed a single-party government with Ozal as
prime minister. In the 1980s and 1990s, ANAP was a liberal
and patriotic center-right party that consistently advocated
liberal economic reforms (including privatization),
democratization, and strong U.S.-Turkish relations. ANAP was
a secular party, but, under Ozal, also had a reputation for
tolerating increased public expression of Islamic piety.
ANAP was also strongly in favor of Turkey signing the Customs
Union with the EU and, later, pursuing EU-oriented political
and economic reforms.


4. (C) ANAP is also associated with political corruption.
Corruption is endemic in Turkey, but many Embassy contacts
assert that political corruption exploded under Ozal. As the
1990s progressed, ANAP became increasingly associated with
political corruption and scandal.


5. (C) In every election since 1983, the level of electoral
support for ANAP has declined: ANAP received 36.3 percent in
1987, 24 percent in 1991, 19.7 percent in 1995, and 13.2
percent in 1999. In 2002, ANAP received only 5.1 percent of
the vote, failing for the first time to cross the 10 percent
electoral threshold required to win seats in parliament.
ANAP,s declining popularity was due to several factors,
including the return to the electoral arena in 1987 of
politicians and parties banned after the 1980 coup; Ozal,s
death in 1993; the failure of a series of coalition
governments that included ANAP in the 1990s; and increasing
allegations of political corruption.

--------------
MUMCU TAKES OVER
--------------


6. (C) On March 17, Erkan Mumcu and four other MPs officially
joined ANAP (reftel). Soon afterwards, Mumcu was elected
party leader. By June 1, the party had 11 MPs and it
accumulated 17 MPs by the end of August. Mumcu deserves
credit for successfully targeting and eventually persuading
21 MPs to join his party. The hard part will be persuading
the Turkish people to support ANAP. Public opinion polls
from earlier this summer indicated that less than 10 percent
of the population supports ANAP.


7. (C) Mumcu, a lawyer by training, is 42-years old; his wife
does not wear a headscarf. He was elected to parliament in
1995 and 1999 on the ANAP ticket, but later defected to AKP
and was elected to parliament on the AKP ticket in 2002. He
has served as a minister in several cabinets and covered a
variety of portfolios, including Culture, Tourism, and
National Education.


8. (C) Many Embassy contacts have suggested that Mumcu is too
young, too elitist, and too ambitious to successfully lead
his party. Former ANAP minister Lutfullah Kayalar, for
example, told PolOffs that many ANAPers from the Ozal era do
not trust Mumcu and are keeping their distance from the
party,s current administration. Other contacts have noted
that Mumcu, who is well educated, lacks the common touch and
uses a type of rhetoric that appeals to elites, but puts off
the common man. Mumcu also suffers from the fact that he
switched parties (twice),which alienates old-timer ANAPers
like Kayalar and gives many Turkish voters the impression
that he is an overly ambitious opportunist.

--------------
WHO JOINED ANAP?
--------------


9. (C) ANAP,s parliamentary delegation is a mixed bag of
refugees from other parties. The delegation includes
classical liberals, nationalists, leftists, conservatives,
and social democrats, and consists of former members of AKP,
CHP, center-right True Path Party (DYP),ultra-nationalistic
National Action Party (MHP),Social Democratic People's Party
(SHP),and even one member who use to be the chairman of the
tiny Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). One of the only things
ANAP,s MPs appear to have in common is their alienation from
the leadership of the other parties and a proclivity for
switching parties -- fully 21 of the 22 ANAP deputies have
been members of other parties during this parliamentary
session; four have switched at least twice.


10. (C) Of the 22 MPs who joined ANAP from March 17 to
October 19, 12 were originally elected on the AKP ticket,
eight were originally elected on the CHP ticket, and two were
elected as independents. ANAP,s deputies are more likely to
represent the Kurdish southeast and less likely to represent
Turkey,s largest cities than the average MP. Forty-one
percent (9 of 22) of ANAP,s MPs represent the southeastern
part of the country, compared to about 24 percent of TGNA
deputies overall. Twenty-eight percent of MPs come from one
of Turkey,s five largest provinces (Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir,
Bursa, and Konya),but only four of ANAP,s 22 MPs (18
percent) represent these populous areas.

--------------
WHAT DOES ANAP STAND FOR TODAY?
--------------


11. (C) Unlike in the 1980s, what ANAP stands for now in
terms of ideology and public policy preferences is unclear.
Contacts from outside ANAP have remarked that the party lacks
an ideological core -- as the AKP TGNA Interior Committee
Chair put it, the ANAP appears to be "an apple, a pear, an
eggplant and a tomato." Another contact commented that he is
unsure what ANAP stands for, but he is certain it is no
longer the liberal democratic party of Ozal. In a recent
speech, Mumcu, in an attempt to define the party, said that
ANAP occupies the "national center" of the political
spectrum. Emin Sirin, an ANAP MP who jumped ship from AKP
early on and is rumored to be in line to become the party,s
group leader in parliament, paused for several seconds when
PolOffs asked him to describe ANAP,s ideology before saying
the party is "economically liberal" and "socially socialist,"
but also "national" without being "nationalist." Edip Safder
Gaydali, ANAP MP and VP for political affairs, told PolOffs
that ANAP is an economically liberal and internally
democratic party that will follow in the tradition of Ozal.
Mehmet Erdemir, ANAP MP and VP for women and youth, told us
that ANAP is building on the Ozal legacy and trying to build
a grand democratic party based on a diverse coalition.


12. (C) This confusion extends beyond mere ideological
labels. For example, in conversations with us, Sirin was
quick to condemn the recent EU negotiating framework and had
almost nothing positive to say about the EU. Gaydali, by
contrast, expressed some concerns about the EU, but was at
pains to emphasize that the EU process is important to
Turkey,s modernization.

--------------
ANAP,S FUTURE
--------------


13. (C) ANAP,s main goal does not appear to be additional
recruitment of MPs from AKP and CHP. ANAP MP Dursun Akdemir
told us that ANAP,s aim was to recruit enough
parliamentarians to form a party group and then focus on
party building in advance of the next election. Forming a
parliamentary group, he said, was an important goal because
it would give ANAP more visibility and press coverage, but
the real focus needs to be on building the party at the
grassroots and not recruiting and endless stream of dissident
MPs. This sentiment was echoed by AKP MP Mehmet Erdemir.
The additional funds ANAP will receive from the state because
it is now an official parliamentary group will also aid
ANAP,s party building goal.


14. (C) There are also rumors that former PM and ANAP leader
Mesut Yilmaz may try to take over the party at next year,s
party convention if corruption charges against him are
dropped. Although Yilmaz is clearly associated with liberal
reform and strongly supports Turkey,s EU candidacy, he is
tainted by allegations of corruption that will not go away
even if he is cleared by the courts. Yilmaz,s residual
strength within the party is untested, but he may be able
threaten Mumcu,s leadership.


15. (C) Comment: ANAP's future is unclear. Mumcu deserves
credit for successfully recruiting enough MPs to form a party
group -- something other leaders of small parties have been
unable to do -- and some of the criticisms of his leadership
style and potential may be rooted in jealousy. The real test
for Mumcu, however, lies ahead. The party must now focus on
developing a coherent set of policy positions that address
the concerns of average Turks; sell these positions to the
public in a coherent manner; and recruit and train the new,
young cadres necessary to build a strong grassroots
organization. Even if Mumcu and ANAP accomplish these tasks,
they will still need considerable skill -- and some luck --
to successfully challenge the AKP juggernaut and reclaim the
lost glory of the Ozal years. However, an ANAP bumblebee
reborn, with a clear party ideology, could make a useful
contribution to the rather lackluster Turkish political
scene. End Comment.
MCELDOWNEY