AFYON: PROSPERITY AND INEQUALITY IN AN ANATOLIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 006302

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/18/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU
SUBJECT: AFYON: PROSPERITY AND INEQUALITY IN AN ANATOLIAN
TOWN


Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b, d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Afyon, a clean and prosperous town located
three hours southwest of Ankara, is better off than many
Turkish cities, yet visiting PolOffs heard complaints about
the economy. We met with a variety of citizens in Afyon,
including businessmen, farmers, academics and government
officials. Although there is a lot of economic activity and
opportunity in Afyon, PolOffs heard many complaints about
economic inequality and insecurity. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) Afyon, officially Afyonkarahisar, located three
hours southwest of Ankara, is on the crossroads from Ankara
to several major cities, including Izmir, Antalya, and
Kutahya. Afyon is a relatively clean and prosperous town of
150,000 people, dominated from above by a breathtaking
fortress atop a craggy peak. Below the central Anatolian
community bubble thermal springs, which are one of the
secrets to its economic success.

SIPDIS

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Afyon's Diversified Economy
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3. (U) Afyon is prosperous thanks to its strategic location
and diversified economic base. Afyon's marble is well-known,
with dozens of small family-run marble cutting operations.
Much of this marble is exported to Europe, the U.S. and
elsewhere. At least a half a dozen thermal spa hotels, which
cater mostly to Turks, are operating or under construction in
Afyon.


4. (U) Afyon is also strong in agriculture. The region is
surrounded by potato and onion fields, owned by the locals
but worked by migrant Roma, whose tent camps on the perimeter
of the fields are clearly visible from the highway. At one
time Afyon was the country's number one egg and poultry
producing province; this industry remains an important one.
Animal husbandry and food processing are sizable enterprises
and the region is famous for its sausage and clotted cream.
Surprisingly, we heard nothing about opium production in
Afyon, despite the fact that limited opium production for
medical purposes is legal in the province whose name, in
Turkish, means opium.


5. (C) Despite Afyon's relative prosperity, local farmers
complained to PolOffs about the governing Justice and
Development Party's (AKP) agricultural policy (i.e. minimal
subsidies and price supports) and economic conditions.
According to the head of the farmers' association, "AKP's
lightbulb is growing dim." (Comment: A radiating lightbulb
is AKP's official party logo. End Comment.) Although highly
supportive of the Afyon AKP mayor and the current Ag Minister
Mehmet Mehdi Eker, the farmers were critical of PM Erdogan
and the former Ag Minister Sami Guclu. (Comment: Minister
Guclu was forced to resign earlier this year because he could
not resolve a Turco-Russian agricultural trade dispute. End
Comment.) Although they seemed resigned to the reality, the
farmers also complained about the downturn in the sugar beet
industry caused by the importation of cheap U.S. corn syrup.


6. (U) Afyon's economy also benefits from the city's
location at an important crossroads. It is home to a company
that owns the central Anatolian distributorships for both
Proctor and Gamble and Philip Morris. An outlet mall is
under construction for Levi's and other western clothing
companies. In fact, the only McDonald's between Ankara and
the coastal resort town of Antalya is located in Afyon.

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Opportunity, Inequality and Insecurity in Afyon
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7. (C) Although there is a lot of opportunity in Afyon, we
heard many complaints about economic inequality. We
repeatedly heard from our contacts that young men and women
who are raised in Afyon, but receive their university
education elsewhere, do return to their hometown and find
worthwhile employment. We met young entrepreneurs who have
successfully expanded and diversified their traditional
family businesses; we also met wealthy tycoons who like to
show off their expensive toys and hobbies and no doubt
contribute to some of the social class resentment we heard in
Afyon.


8. (C) Durmus Yoruk and Huseyin Sen, assistant economics
professors at Afyon,s Kocatepe University, generally give
AKP high marks for its management of the Turkish economy, but
complain about persistent problems related to instability and
inequality. They say most of the economic growth, including
in Afyon, has benefited larger corporations, whereas small
and medium-sized businesses have not seen any improvement.
They lament that the income distribution in the city is not
fair -- there are a few wealthy families, but the majority of
the people are "just getting by." The professors say that
young women (and their parents) are looking for marriages to
young men with job security. These women prefer men who have
secure government jobs to men with higher paying, but
insecure private sector employment.


9. (C) COMMENT: Turkish boosters like to point to the
positive macroeconomic numbers the country has put up over
the past few years, but the reality is more complicated.
Economic growth is generally limited to large corporations
and most Turks are still hurting economically. Turkish
youths prefer secure government jobs to entrepreneurialism,
and small and medium-sized businesses are mainly interested
in holding on, not trying to find new ways to expand profits
or market share. Few Turks are willing to face the fact that
many mom-and-pop operations and small farms (often less than
20 acres in size) will have to grow, consolidate, or go out
of business if the country is transitioning into a modern,
21st century economy that can survive in the EU. In the
meantime, the responsible rich will grow richer, the
irresponsible rich will play with their toys, and the average
Turkish family will continue to get by while living in fear
of another economic crisis. END COMMENT.
MCELDOWNEY