APNSA HADLEY'S MEETING WITH TURKISH CHOD OZKOK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 005845

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/30/2025
TAGS: PREL MOPS PTER KPKO TU IZ AF RS NATO
SUBJECT: APNSA HADLEY'S MEETING WITH TURKISH CHOD OZKOK

Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Despite our occasional differences over
Iraq, Turkey remains America's strategic partner, asserted
Turkish CHOD GEN Ozkok to APNSA Hadley. Ozkok reviewed
Turkish views of the Black Sea, Caucasus, and Central
Asia. He outlined the "nuclear chain" stretching from
North Korea, India, Pakistan, and now to Iran, and worried
that Tehran's weapons program will destabilize the region.
APNSA Hadley also highlighted Iran's support for
terrorism. Ozkok reaffirmed that Turkey stands with us
against terror, and hoped for coalition action to bottle up
the PKK in northern Iraq. He emphasized the importance of
the Sunni Arabs to Iraq's future, adding that the central
government must control the country's oil resources or the
country may split apart. Hadley expressed appreciation for
Turkey's major contribution to maintaining Afghanistan's
security. Both sides agreed to hold the next High Level
Defense Group meeting soon. End summary.

Black Sea: Turkey Working to Calm the Russians
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2. (C) In a cordial Sept. 24 meeting, CHOD GEN Hilmi Ozkok
provided an overview for APNSA Hadley of Turkey's strategic
concerns in this complex region. Ozkok said that U.S.
officials are well aware of Turkish positions on Iraq,
especially regarding Kirkuk and the PKK, so instead
reviewed the neighborhood, beginning with the Black Sea.
Save for Turkey in the south, the Black Sea had been
Soviet-dominated for 50 years. Now we have two NATO Allies
on the sea's western side, a PfP member (Georgia) to the
east, and Ukraine and Russia to the north, who maintain
some level of cooperation with the Alliance. Ozkok
asserted that what happens in the Black Sea affects
Russia's self-confidence; the GOR perceives a growing NATO
presence in the area, and Turkey is working to calm the
Russians so they will accept NATO's presence there. Ozkok
noted that the Russians have never participated in a PfP
exercise: "They still feel they are different from everyone
else."


3. (C) Turning to the Caucasus, Ozkok noted how Azerbaijan
is getting richer, while Armenia (which occupies 20 percent
of Azeri territory) is growing poorer. Russia supports
Armenia while Turkey and the U.S. have major interests in
Azerbaijan. It will not be easy to solve the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute peacefully, Ozkok averred.

Central Asia: EU is "Indifferent"
--------------


4. (C) The presidents in the Central Asia states are all
"Soviet-minded," Ozkok believed, and recommended we focus
our attention on the next generation of leaders.
Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan are oil-rich, but
the people are not benefiting from these riches.
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are poor and a hotbed for
terrorism. Ozkok thinks the EU should cooperate more with
the U.S. in this area, but he perceives the EU as being
"indifferent" to Central Asia. He believes a Central
Asia-Russia-China bloc may emerge in the coming years to
the EU's detriment unless it acts now. He suggested that
the U.S. and Turkey share the same western orientation, and
Turkey can use its friendly relations with the Central
Asians to advance our common interests.

Iran's Nuclear Program Destabilizes the Region
-------------- -


5. (C) Turning to Iran, Ozkok expressed concerned with what
he sees as a "nuclear chain" linking North Korea, India,
Pakistan, and now Iran. Iran's weapons program will only
encourage others in the Middle East region to pursue their
own nuclear deterrent, thus making it all the more
important to stop the Iranians, who also have capable
delivery
systems. As a neighbor, Turkey maintains relations with
Tehran, "but we are very careful with them." Ozkok opined
that Iran's bad deeds arise in part from its perception
that it is isolated. APNSA Hadley responded that we also
worry about Iran due to its support for terrorism, in
particular Hizbullah. Iran now stands as the world's
number one state sponsor of terrorism. Ozkok agreed.

6. (C) Ozkok reaffirmed that Turkey stands with the U.S. in
condemning terrorism in all its forms, and commended Hadley
for his strong statement to the Turkish press on the PKK.
Ozkok said Turkey understands the limitations of U.S.
forces in Iraq to fight the PKK, but is still hopeful that
more can be done to limit their movements in Iraq and into
Turkey. Ozkok noted that the PKK is learning improved IED
capabilities from other terrorist groups in Iraq, then
employing these IEDs in Turkey to kill Turkish soldiers.
The Turkish military is now working on tactics, techniques,
and procedures (TTPs) to combat this threat. He repeated
the high expectations the Turkish people have for the U.S.
to assist in the fight against the PKK.

Iraq: Keep the Sunnis In the Game
--------------


7. (C) Ozkok asserted that "you know our policies and
expectations" in the Middle East region. Turkey had been
concerned by instability in Iraq and by the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and is pleased that the
latter is calming down: "Two conflicts in the region were
too much," he added. As for Iraq, Ozkok hoped that the new
constitution will serve all the communities there; for now,
the Sunni Arabs are the key. With oil in the north and
the south but with most Sunni Arabs living in the central
area of the country, they fear for their economic and
political future. It is vital, Ozkok said, that Iraq's
natural resources be under the control of a strong central
government. (He referred to Kirkuk in this context.) The
Sunnis Arabs will do "whatever they can"
(including resort to terrorism) if they believe control of
resources will devolve to the regions. Such instability
could lead to the rise of another Saddam Hussein. If the
country breaks apart, there will be "no rest in this region
for a century."


8. (C) APNSA Hadley responded that there is some irony that
the Sunni Arabs see federalism as tending to tear the
country apart. On the contrary, we believed from early on
that federalism was the only way to keep the country
together, especially given its recent history and the
divides among the communities. The USG hopes for broad
Sunni Arab participation not only in the constitutional
referendum, but perhaps more importantly in the December
elections, the result of which should be a strong central
government. Under the TAL, the ITG was designed to be
weak, which has admittedly damaged its efforts to fight
terrorism. The government elected under the constitution
should be stronger in this regard, and will be capable of
taking on not only terrorism but also key issues such as
Kirkuk, the economy, and the future shape of Iraqi
federalism. Hadley noted that a million Sunnis have
recently registered to vote, and have indicated not only
that they will vote in October, but also in December. He
also praised the enormous resilience of the Iraqi people in
dealing with terrorism there.


9. (C) Hadley said he would appreciate Ozkok's "operational
advice" in dealing with terrorism given Turkey's own
experience. We have had strong success in Najaf in
training the ISF to take control of the security
situation, to deter terrorists from returning, and to set
up strong local government structures. Ozkok responded
that economic and political opportunity are vital. If a
man is hopeful for the future and that of his children, he
will not turn to terrorism, the CHOD asserted. Speaking
operationally, Ozkok added that it is also vital to target
the leadership of terrorist organizations and to deal with
state sponsors of terrorism; Ozkok specifically identified
Syria's support for the Iraqi insurgency as an example of
such state sponsorship.


10. (C) Ozkok noted that even while there is no immediate
threat to Turkey's territorial integrity in the region,
"there are threats to our interests." This is why--even
after the end of the Cold War--Turkey has still maintained
a large military. Ozkok joked that "all militaries are
addicted to threats" and thus seek to maintain high
readiness, but added that there is consensus in all sectors
of the Turkish policymaking apparatus that a strong
military remains necessary. He asked that the U.S. and
Turkey maintain not only our strong mil-mil relations, but
also continue to quietly support the role of the military
in Turkey.

The Afghan Success Story
--------------


11. (C) Hadley closed by expressing the U.S.'s deep
appreciation for Turkey's contributions to securing the
future of Afghanistan. He recalled that there were
initially no volunteers to command ISAF II, but that Turkey
stood up to do so and "did a marvelous job" at a time when
success was hardly assured. ISAF has been a success for
Afghanistan and for NATO; the Alliance has proved that it
can play a significant role outside of Europe. There are
still major challenges in southeast Afghanistan, and we are
seeking stronger U.S.-Afghanistan-Pakistan trilateral
cooperation to deal with the threats there. In addition,
narcotics remain a serious problem. While Afghanistan is a
success, we need to maintain our focus or risk letting this
success slip away.

12. (C) Ozkok responded that Afghanistan has progressed
better than he had expected. He saw the main challenges
ahead as providing economic opportunity for the Afghan
people while at the same time dealing with narcotics
production. He advised that NATO stay away from the counter
narcotics mission, lest the Alliance be seen as taking
income away from the people.

Ozkok: Don't Hold March 1 Against Us
--------------


13. (C) Ozkok closed by highlighting the close U.S.-Turkey
security relationship over the past 50 years, and pointed
out that the U.S. should not harshly criticize Turkey for
the March 1, 2003 parliamentary vote not to allow the
coalition to use Turkey for OIF. He highlighted our
cooperation in carrying out Operations Provide Comfort and
Northern Watch. These operations "formed the battlefield"
for OIF by weakening Saddam's control over the north, and
also provided Iraq's Kurds with near-independence. While
there may be temporary differences over Iraq, Ozkok
asserted, we are still strategic partners.


14. (C) Hadley closed by recommending that the U.S.-Turkey
High Level Defense Group meet soon. He recalled this was a
successful forum during his time at DoD, but that it has
not met for about two years. Ozkok responded that Turkey
is ready to hold the next HLDG at any time. Hadley noted
that he had also suggested to Acting FonMin Tuygan a "more
institutionalized dialogue" between the Turkish MFA and
State. (NOTE: We have offered TGS early November for the
next HLDG; the Turks have yet to get back to us. END
NOTE.)

Participants
--------------


15. (U)

U.S.:
APNSA Stephen Hadley
Charge d'Affaires McEldowney
NSC Senior Director Ansley
NSC Senior Director Harriman
NSC Press Director Davis
APNSA's Personal Assistant Haenle
Embassy PolMilOff (notetaker)

Turkey:
CHOD GEN Ozkok
D/CHOD GEN Kosaner
J5 Director LTG Zorlu (NB--Ozkok noted that Zorlu had been
the commander of ISAF II)
J3 Director LTG Kalyoncu
J2 Director LTG Guner
MFA Director General for the Americas Alpar
MFA Deputy Director General for the Americas Ilicak
MCELDOWNEY