MAIN OPPOSITION CHP LEADERSHIP STUGGLE -- BAYKAL'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000581

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2014
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS TU
SUBJECT: MAIN OPPOSITION CHP LEADERSHIP STUGGLE -- BAYKAL'S
PYRRHIC VICTORY


Classified By: ANKARA 000198
04 ISTANBUL 001729
ANKARA 000501
ISTANBUL 000147
04 ANKARA 006839

POLCOUNS John Kunstadter; reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. Republican People's Party (CHP) leader
Baykal was re-elected chairman of CHP at the party's
convention on 28-29 January. Baykal's re-election marks a
significant victory over his key political rivals within the
party, but the negative publicity surrounding their
leadership struggle and the violent party convention will
further weaken the increasingly irrelevant and ineffective
CHP. End Summary.


2. (C) CHP leader Deniz Baykal was re-elected chairman of CHP
with 674 of 1,219 votes cast in the first round at the
party's Extraordinary Convention on 28-29 January.
Istanbul-Sisli Mayor Mustafa Sarigul received 460 votes,
about 100 more than the number of signatures he got to
register his candidacy. Eight-five votes were declared
invalid, probably because they were cast for candidates that
failed to muster enough signatures to be on the official
ballot.


3. (C) A fight broke out at the convention when Sarigul and
his supporters first entered the hall. Several people were
hurt and three delegates were hospitalized. Sarigul himself
was caught on camera punching the mayor of Bakirkoy. Chaos
erupted in the hall and at one point the police had to be
called in to restore order. Sarigul and his supporters
boycotted the second day of the convention, thereby allowing
the Baykal faction to easily elect their slate to the Party
Assembly and Disciplinary Board. The convention was carried
live on a couple of Turkish television stations and all of
Sunday's papers -- except leftist Cumhuriyet -- carried front
page pictures of the carnage.


4. (C) Baykal gave a three hour speech as party chairman and
another fifty minutes speech as a candidate for the party
chairmanship. Although his speech was interrupted repeatedly
by Sarigul supporters, Baykal -- whom many educated Turks
considered a gifted public orator -- provided details about
Sarigul's alleged political corruption and alleged efforts to
bribe the CHP Disciplinary Board (Refs A and B). Baykal's
rhetorical argument -- that he is standing up against the
corrupt individuals who have overtaken parts of the party --
cuts two ways. First, because the claim that corruption is
rank in the party undermines his own claims to effective
leadership of CHP. Second, because, as Baykal supporter
Mehmet Nessar (Denizli MP) told us Jan. 31, it raises the
question why Baykal offered the prized Antalya mayoral
candidacy to Sarigul if Sarigul's corruption was so clear at
the time. Baykal also repeated his false claim that a
"crusade" has been launched against CHP in retribution for
its opposition to the failed 1 March 2003 resolution in the
Turkish parliament that would have authorized US troop
deployment into Iraq through Turkey (Refs C and D). Sarigul
spoke for about an hour and a half, but we agree with media
commentators and Embassy contacts who characterized him as
ineffective and outclassed by Baykal.


5. (C) In the aftermath of the convention, Baykal will move
to further consolidate his control of the party and punish
the dissidents. Sarigul asserts he will remain in CHP, but
others have said that many disgruntled CHPers will leave the
party. Nessar told us he understands from Baykal that, in
reaction to the apparent support for Sarigul by MP's who had
said they would remain loyal to Baykal, about ten CHP MPs
will be expelled from the party for having supported Sarigul.
Before the convention, CHP MP Hasan Aydin and former CHP
state minister Erol Cevikce told POLOFF separately that CHP
dissidents -- including at least twenty MPs -- would leave
CHP to form a new leftist or left-of-center party if Baykal
won re-election.


6. (C) Comment. The convention was a Pyrrhic victory for
Baykal because the tactics he employed have only further
weakened CHP's reputation with the public and Baykal's
standing as leader within the party. Baykal's victory over
Sarigul, moreover, will not end the leadership struggle
within CHP (Ref E). This is the third major challenge to
Baykal's authoritarian control over the party in the past two
years. Baykal's control and manipulation of the CHP party
processes have allowed him to maintain control of the party
machinery so far, but his popularity and power within the
party continue to decline with each contest. He received
only 674 votes at this convention, compared to 973 votes for
the convention in October 2003 and 781 votes in July 2004.
The party will hold another convention in October 2005 and
anti-Baykal elements within the party are already working to
overthrow him.


7. (C) Concerning Baykal's anti-American campaign (repeatedly
throwing out charges that the U.S. was behind the efforts to
remove him and to crush the party),Nessar initially implied
he could not understand Baykal's motivation when we asked
whether Baykal really believes the conspiracy theories or has
merely used them to manipulate sentiment. Acknowledging he
knew the supposed Pentagon documents implicating the U.S.
were rank forgeries, Nessar then weakly suggested that Baykal
had merely indulged in a tactic for internal political
consumption. However, he listened intently when we
underscored how badly Baykal has damaged his and his party's
reputation in Washington by indulging in such cheap and
mendacious conspiracy-mongering. End Comment.
EDELMAN