TURKEY APPARENTLY NOT YET DECIDED ON CANCELING

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 005420

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/01/2015
TAGS: MOPS PREL CY GR TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY APPARENTLY NOT YET DECIDED ON CANCELING
CYPRUS MILITARY EXERCISES, WILL OFFER ADDITIONAL CBM'S TO
GREECE

REF: A. STATE 163708


B. ANKARA 4966

C. ANKARA 1103

Classified By: Acting DCM Timothy A. Betts for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Turkish MFA and TGS will discuss the
cancellation of military exercises on Sept. 19. MFA is
inclined to cancel (if Greece does); the TGS J5 Greece/Cyprus
Branch Chief told us he will recommend the decision be linked
to whether EU accession negotiations commence Oct. 3. We
believe MFA's view will prevail. Turkey plans to offer
bilateral CBMs to the Greeks in advance of the Greek land
forces commander's Nov. 5 visit to Ankara. End summary.


MFA: We Will Likely Cancel Cyprus Exercises...
-------------- -


2. (C) Charge delivered ref a demarche Sept. 7 to MFA
Undersecretary Tuygan, who acknowledged the points but did
not respond substantively. Deputy PolCouns followed up Sept.
16 with Levent Bilman, MFA Deputy Director General for
Northeastern Mediterranean Affairs. Bilman reported that the
MFA will discuss the issue with the "relevant authorities"
(the military) on Sept. 19. He added that "our intention"
(MFA's) is to follow the same approach as last year
(simultaneous Greek/Turkish cancellation of autumn exercises
in Cyprus),but he could not make any guarantees prior to the
Sept. 19 meeting.

...But TGS Is Still Thinking About It
--------------


3. (C) On Sept. 14, PolMilCouns called on TGS J5
Greece/Cyprus Branch Chief RADM Mucahit Sislioglu to discuss
the issue. Sislioglu said that he planned to recommend to
his superiors that the decision on carrying out exercises in
Cyprus should be linked to whether EU accession negotiations
proceed on Oct. 3. Sislioglu asserted that he was "85-90
percent certain" that the negotiations would proceed, and
therefore Turkey would not carry out the exercises. If,
however, negotiations are derailed, he warned that he would
recommend proceeding "for sure" with exercises. He noted
that it was also possible that the GOT may decide to cancel
the "Toros" exercise before Oct. 3, but if accession talks
are called off Turkey may carry out an exercise by another
name. PolMilCouns pointed out that it may not be Greece or
Cyprus who would block negotiations; Sislioglu countered that
he would still recommend proceeding with exercises in such
circumstances.


4. (C) Sislioglu (please protect) emphasized that he was only
providing us what will be his own recommendation to his
superiors in TGS, and that he did not know what MFA's
position would be.


5. COMMENT: If EU accession negotiations proceed on Oct. 3,
we believe Turkey will not carry out large-scale exercises in
Cyprus. However, if there is a negative outcome on Oct. 3,
Turkey will reconsider a number of policies, including
military exercises. END COMMENT.

TGS: We Will Offer More CBMs to the Greeks...Again
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Sislioglu mentioned that during a trip to Greece in
February (ref c),he had offered the Greek military specific
confidence-building measures, including port visits, joint
exercises, and personnel exchanges at each others' bases.
Sislioglu said these were similar to previous offers TGS has
made in the past. He said the Greek military only replied
that it was seeking political direction from the Greek MFA,
and never provided a final response.


7. (C) Sislioglu reported that the Greek land forces
commander was to visit Ankara Nov. 5, and that TGS had
prepared a similar list of CBMs for this visit, focused on
army-to-army contacts. However, this time the Turkish MFA
will make the offer directly to the Greek MFA first.
Provided the Greek MFA approves the offer, TGS will then
"push the button" on the military side.
MCELDOWNEY