KING ABDULLAH VISITS TURKEY, SHARES CONCERNS ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 005270

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/09/2015
TAGS: PREL IS IR IZ TU
SUBJECT: KING ABDULLAH VISITS TURKEY, SHARES CONCERNS ABOUT
IRAQ CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS

REF: AMMAN 7157

Classified By: POLCOUNS Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
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1. (C) Jordan's King Abdullah visited Ankara September 5 at
his initiative and met briefly with Turkish President Sezer,
PM Erdogan and FonMin Gul. Focusing on Iraq, Abdullah
reportedly expressed two major concerns: first, that Iraq's
Sunnis are becoming alienated from the constitutional
process, which they view as overemphasizing sectarian
interests over Iraqi unity, and second, that if Shias and
Kurds feel they can go their separate ways, Iran's influence
in Iraq would only be strengthened. Abdullah and the Turks
agreed to more intense Jordan-Turkey consultations to find
ways to ensure all Iraq's groups are kept in the process,
Iraqi national unity is promoted over sectarian interests,
and Iran's influence is not allowed to grow. Abdullah said
he would also discuss these concerns with President Bush
(NFI). Discussions also touched upon the Middle East Peace
Process, with both sides agreeing Israel's pullout from Gaza
represented a major opportunity that should not be
squandered. End Summary

Jordanian Concerns about Sunni Participation in Iraq
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2. (C) King Abdullah spent a few hours in Ankara September
5 consulting with President Sezer and PM Erdogan on Iraq, the
Middle East Peace Process, and bilateral issues. MFA sources
tell us the visit was hastily arranged at Abdullah's request
and Iraq was foremost on his mind. MFA DG for Middle East
Celikkol told PolMilCouns September 7 Abdullah was worried
about growing Iranian influence on Iraqi politics. The King
asked for increased Jordan-Turkey consultation and
cooperation, including the exchange of "information and
notes" on Iraq, and the Turks agreed. According to Celikkol,
the King asserted he had some influence with Shia groups not
under Tehran's control as well as some moderate Sunni groups.
Celikkol said the King believes the constitution will be
approved in the referendum; he is more concerned about the
outcome of the December general elections. Asked what other
Arab governments were doing to address his concern, Abdullah
asserted the North Africans were distant and disinterested
while other Arab leaders were fearful of engaging more fully
for fear of attacks on their diplomatic personnel and out of
concern for their own, potentially restive Shia populations
(save Egypt).


3. (C) Expanding on Celikkol's report, MFA Middle East
Department Head Sedat Onal told Poloffs September 8 that
Abdullah reiterated long-standing concern that Iraq's Sunnis
are being alienated from the political process, especially
the development of the constitution. According to Abdullah,
the Sunnis are increasingly convinced the constitution as
drafted does not serve their needs, emphasizing the interests
of different ethnic and religious groups at the expense of a
broad Iraqi identity. Abdullah worried that if the Shias and
Kurds feel emboldened to go their own separate ways in Iraq,
Iranian influence on Iraqi politics will only grow. If the
Shia gain wider influence in Iraq than justified by their
proportion of the population, the "Shia Crescent" in the
region will be strengthened. In this context, Shia rumblings
about an autonomous region are troubling. Abdullah
reportedly called for greater cooperation to ensure all Iraqi
groups remain involved in the political process and that a
broad Iraqi identity is protected and encouraged over
sectarian interests. According to Onal, President Sezer
agreed with the King's assessment and noted that there is
still time for the Sunnis to increase their participation,
particularly in forming the legislation that will fill out
the constitutional framework. PM Erdogan reportedly agreed
more emphasis must be placed on a unified Iraqi identity but
the actions of the Shias as well as the Kurds are a
disturbing sign that communal tendencies continue to dominate.

MEPP -- Not Losing an Opportunity
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4. (C) According to the MFA, the King and his hosts touched
on the MEPP, with the Turks reportedly hoping that Arab
public opinion would support PA President Mahmoud Abbas and
give the peace process a chance in the wake of Israel's
pull-out from Gaza settlements. Palestinians should be
particularly careful to ensure security at this juncture.
Abdullah reportedly agreed the pull-out represented a great
opportunity that should not be lost. Our MFA interlocutors
said specifics were not discussed. Jordanian Embassy
officials told Poloff September 8 that Abdullah stressed to
his hosts the pull-outs must be considered a step in the
process and all further steps must be closely tied to the
roadmap.
MCELDOWNEY