TURKEY'S EU EFFORT PLAGUED BY LOW MORALE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 003637

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DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE
TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - CPLANTIER AND MMILLS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EFIN TU EU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S EU EFFORT PLAGUED BY LOW MORALE,
BUREAUCRATIC SKEPTICISM

REF: A. ANKARA 3105

B. ANKARA 3565

C. ANKARA 1231

Classified by CDA Nancy McEldowney; reasons 1.4 b and d.


1. (C) Summary: Top GOT leaders insist publicly that the
rejection of the EU Constitution in France and the
Netherlands will not affect Turkey's EU candidacy, though our
MFA contacts concede that recent events in Europe have sapped
morale. The GOT's recently-appointed lead EU negotiator must
organize his negotiating team, and he may become overwhelmed
by the burden of leading the EU talks while maintaining his
position as Economy Minister. We agree with contacts who
tell us that the GOT has failed to lead the EU accession
effort over the past several months. Our contacts say that a
majority of bureaucrats opposes EU membership. End Summary.

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GOT Battling Low Morale on EU Front
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2. (U) PM Erdogan, FM Gul, and other high-level GOT officials
have repeatedly insisted in public that the rejection of the
EU Constitution by French and Dutch voters was only
marginally influenced by fears over Turkey's possible EU
membership, and that the referenda results will not affect
Turkey's accession process (reftel A). They have sought to
assure the public that both Turkey and the EU are prepared to
begin accession talks on schedule in October.


3. (C) Our contacts at the MFA and the Secretariat General
for EU Affairs also assure us that the GOT is pressing ahead
on the EU front. But they acknowledge that Turkish morale
has been sapped by the "No" votes on the EU Constitution, as
well as the strong possibility that Angela Merkel, Turkey
skeptic and president of Germany's Christian Democratic Union
Party, will emerge victorious in the upcoming German
elections. "There have been some ill effects, I won't deny
that," said Ahmet Acet, Deputy Secretary General of the
Secretariat General for EU Affairs. "There is a strong sense

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of disappointment."


4. (C) Acet is concerned about the constant "murmuring"
coming from Europe, and reflected in the Turkish press, about
the possibility of postponing the opening of Turkey's
accession talks. He noted that these comments are generally
coming from media pundits and European government officials
not directly involved with EU enlargement; European
Commission President Barroso and Enlargement Commissioner
Rehn have made it clear that talks will begin on schedule.
He expects the talks to start on time, but believes the
constant barrage of negative comments will cast a dark cloud
over the proceedings.


5. (C) Acet noted that even Barroso has contributed to
Turkish anxieties. The Commission President told a reporter
during a June 17 press conference that the EU "should
seriously discuss the signals that we have had from the
electorate regarding Turkey," a vague comment that Acet said
many in the GOT view as an ominous sign of trouble on the
horizon. As reported reftel B, Acet and his colleagues fear
that trouble could come in the form of tough language in the
EU's upcoming Framework for Negotiations with Turkey.

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Negotiator Needs to Organize Team
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6. (C) Our European contacts also believe that the EU,
despite the recent turmoil, will stick to the October 3 start
date for talks. But how prepared is the GOT? Kaya Turkmen,
MFA DDG for EU Affairs, told us that Economy Minister
Babacan, whom Erdogan named as lead EU negotiator in May,
must decide how to organize his negotiating team. The State
Planning Organization (SPO),one of several economic policy
agencies, has clashed with the Secretariat General for EU
ffairs over which agency should play the leading role in the
EU accession process.



7. (C) Turkmen and Acet say Babacan is likely to favor the
Secretariat General, which is under his authority, over the

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SPO, which reports to Deputy PM Sener. Moreover, both argue
that SPO officials lack diplomatic skills and knowledge of
the EU. However, they say SPO expertise will be necessary
for the accession process, and Babacan will have to
incorporate the agency into the process. MFA and the
Secretariat General have jointly submitted to Babacan a

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proposed arrangement under which Babacan would be supported
by four deputies -- the head of the Secretariat General for
EU Affairs, the MFA Deputy Undersecretary in charge of EU
affairs, the GOT's EU Permrep, and the SPO Undersecretary.

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Babacan May Be Overwhelmed by Dual Role
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8. (C) Erdogan has said Babacan will retain his position as
Economy Minister while leading the EU negotiations. It is
not clear that he can handle both tasks. A UK diplomat told
us members of the Turkey-EU Parliamentary Commission were
irritated when Babacan failed to attend a June 13 Commission
meeting in Istanbul, reputedly because he was occupied with
IMF matters. Acet told us he discussed this issue with
Babacan, who insisted that his IMF-related duties will soon
decrease (Note: The track record suggests otherwise: at every
IMF review, new and difficult issues emerge, often when
politicos try to push through populist measures that the IMF
cannot accept. End Note).

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Reforms Proceed On Paper, ImplementationLags
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9. (C) Despite the uncertainty at the top, Acet and Turkmen
insist that the Turkish bureaucracy has been steadily
preparing for the start of accession talks, working behind
the scenes in ways not reflected in the press. Acet cited
new draft laws on foundations and the establishment of a
government ombudsman as examples of continuing reform efforts
(Note: The EU has deemed the foundations law draft
inadequate. End Note).


10. (C) Acet conceded that the GOT has had difficulty
implementing legal reforms, and "adjusting mindsets" among
law enforcement and judicial officials. Despite a broad,
EU-funded Justice Ministry program to train judges and
prosecutors in EU law and GOT reform, judicial authorities
often act against the spirit of the reforms. Prosecutors are
still opening "harassment cases" against people for
controversial speech that should be protected, he said. But
Acet averred that such incidents are declining, and will
decline further over time. He said the GOT needs to find
more effective ways to ensure that reforms on paper lead to
real change on the street.

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Most Bureaucrats Oppose EU Membership
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11. (C) Other contacts are more skeptical about the sincerity
of the GOT's EU-related reform effort. Ayse Saadet Arikan,
director general of the Justice Ministry's General
Directorate for EU Affairs, told us that top GOT officials,
despite their public commitment to EU accession, have shown
no leadership on EU reforms in many months. In the past, the
GOT used to hold interministerial meetings immediately after
each EU Summit and Regular Report to coordinate efforts to
address issues raised by the EU. However, she said, the GOT
has not held any such meeting since the October 2004 Regular
Report and December 2004 Summit. As a result, each ministry
is left on its own to decide how to proceed.


12. (C) Moreover, Arikan has told us that a majority of the
officials at Justice oppose EU membership, and many say so
openly. Contacts at the European Commission office in Ankara
tell us they have noticed the same anti-EU sentiment at
Justice and other ministries. The Danish DCM told us that


Ambassador Sungar, head of the Secretariat General for EU
Affairs, told a visiting Dutch delegation that only
approximately 30 percent of MFA officials favor EU
membership. Arikan said Justice Ministry bureaucrats
systematically block her efforts to amend regulations to
conform to EU requirements.

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Comment
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13. (C) Events both in Turkey and in the EU over the past six
months have dramatically eroded the sense of optimism that
had inspired many to hope that EU accession would, over time,
serve as a catalyst to solve Turkey's various,
long-unresolved conflicts. The recent anti-EU backlash and
increasingly nationalistic tone of the GOT has revealed that
Turkey's reform accomplishments, while wide, have been
shallow, remaining for the most part on paper. The GOT's
goal, for the moment, is a modest one: to make it to October
3 without a major crisis that could derail negotiations. At
that point, any further progress will depend largely on the
GOT's ability to inspire the bureaucracy, and the public, to
embrace EU reform as a benefit to Turkey.

MCELDOWNEY