TURKEY-ARMENIA RELATIONS: PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003340

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015
TAGS: PREL TU AM
SUBJECT: TURKEY-ARMENIA RELATIONS: PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE
CONTACTS CONTINUE BUT SO DOES OFFICIAL STALEMATE

(U) Classified by Political Counselor John Kunstadter, E.O.
12958, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Despite recent high-profile
people-to-people contacts between Turkey and Armenia
involving journalists, artists and a maverick Turkish
parliamentarian, official relations remain stalemated. End
Summary.

MFA: Armenia at Fault for No Warsaw Meeting
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2. (C) MFA Caucasus DDG Karslioglu blames President
Kocharian for the failure of Kocharian and PM Erdogan to meet
bilaterally at the COE Warsaw Summit in May. Kocharian's
statements in Warsaw about the Armenian genocide infuriated
Erdogan and the Armenians should "blame themselves" that the
meeting failed to materialize.


3. (C) Karslioglu brushed off any effect on bilateral
relations caused by cancellation of a June alternate-view
academic conference in Istanbul on the Armenian tragedy as
"none of their (the GOAM's) business."

MFA Says GOT Encouraging Bilateral Contacts
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4. (C) Karslioglu claims Turkey is open to improved
relations. Despite the fact that GOT spokesman and Justice
Minister Cicek accused the Istanbul conference organizers of
"stabbing Turkey in the back," Karslioglu asserted that the
GOT is "encouraging" the conference to go ahead. Karslioglu
said he spoke to maverick AKP parliamentarian Turhan Comez,
who is currently visiting Armenia, and encouraged him to go
ahead with his trip. Karslioglu claimed Comez is going on
the trip in his own capacity, not as a go-between for the
GOT, nor is Comez carrying any message from the GOT.


5. (C) Karslioglu said the GOT likewise encouraged the
current visit to Turkey of a group of approximately 20
Armenian journalists as guests of two Turkish media NGOs.
According to press reports, the group met with Turkish
journalists in Istanbul on June 11. The group is scheduled
to meet with the Armenian Patriarch and travel to three other
cities, including Ankara.


6. (C) Karslioglu added that the GOT has also encouraged the
visit of an Armenian ballet troupe, which will perform in
Istanbul on June 13 and 14. Turkish Rotarians are helping
pay the troupe's expenses, he said. Karslioglu contrasted
this with what he claimed was the GOAM's refusal to grant
permission for a trip to Armenia by a Turkish folklore group
from Kars.

"Nothing Left on Turkey's Part to Be Done"
--------------


7. (C) Despite the people-to-people contacts, official
relations remain stalemated. Karslioglu confirms Turkey
still conditions opening the border and formal diplomatic
relations on Armenian concessions on occupied Azerbaijani
territory.


8. (C) With all Turkey has done, it has "exhausted" its
"road map" plan for improved bilateral relations, Karslioglu
asserted: "there is nothing left on Turkey's part to be
done." Asked about the status of proposals in the April
exchange of letters between PM Erdogan and President
Kocharian, Karslioglu replied archly that Kocharian's
proposal is "under consideration." He declined to predict
what would happen to it: "The Prime Minister is a
politician. Who knows?" Karslioglu postured that Turkey's
political leaders could get "sick" of what he portrayed as
Armenia's failure to respond to Turkish overtures "and then
Armenia will learn what a real blockade is."


9. (C) When we spoke to him in May, Karslioglu was initially
mildly upbeat about talks in Vienna between MFA U/S Tuygan
and his Armenian counterpart, pointing out this had upped
bilateral dialogue to a higher level than before. However,
when we spoke to him June 10, Karslioglu noted there is still
no date set for any future talks, adding, "things cannot get
much worse."


10. (C) Comment: Previous Turkish MFA interlocutors have
told us that increased people-to-people contact will not
erode Turkey's conditions for opening the border and
establishing diplomatic relations. This stance appears to be
continuing. The Comez visit is getting play in the centrist
mainstream press, but in our long experience Comez has made
similar high profile jaunts (e.g., Iraq, post-Tsunami
Indonesia) for his own murky purposes and he has added no
value to Turkey's foreign policy direction. Ostracized by
Erdogan and his circle, Comez has gravitated to Gul, who
appears to use him as an anti-American stalking horse and in
ways that put Erdogan on the defensive. In addition,
Karslioglu, who is reported by an MFA insider to be close to
FonMin Gul and was put in his DDG position by Gul, has so far
shown himself to be a dull place-holder. End Comment.
EDELMAN